Tag Archives: Turkey

Turkey Special Report: The Attack at Istanbul’s Ataturk International Airport

This report was written by:
Tzahi Shraga – MAX Security’s Chief Intelligence Officer, ret. LTC from of the Israeli intelligence community

Roshanna Lawrence – MAX Security’s Associate Director of Intelligence, Middle East & North Africa

Garrett Krivicich – MAX Security’s Senior Analyst on Turkey

Asaf Day – MAX Security’s Senior Analyst on the Eastern Mediterranean

Executive Summary

Three suicide bombers of Russian and Central Asian descent launched a well-planned and coordinated attack, detonating themselves at Istanbul’s Ataturk International Airport during the evening hours of June 28 and causing the deaths of 41 people and wounding of 239 others.

While no claim of responsibility has been released at this time, we assess that the Islamic State (IS) is responsible for the attack, given the sophisticated modus operandi of the incident, namely a coordinated attack in three separate locations, including a diversion stage, as well as the target, which is an international hub for foreign nationals.

Current Situation

Description of event
Three suicide bombers detonated themselves at Istanbul’s Ataturk International Airport during the evening hours of June 28. Reports indicate that at approximately 22:00 (local time), the assailants arrived by taxi at the international terminal’s arrivals hall. One militant remained behind in the parking lot and aroused police suspicion; he began shooting at police and then detonated a suicide belt.

As security forces gathered around the scene of the first blast, in the chaos, the two other attackers were able to enter the international terminal: One at the arrivals hall terminal, and the other upstairs to the departure hall.

The second and third explosions reportedly took place at the arrivals and departures halls, where each attacker attempted to pass through security and began shooting, engaging with security forces before separately detonating themselves.

Description of attackers
The attackers were reportedly from Russia’s Dagestan region, as well as from Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and they were armed with standard AK-47 assault rifles. However, a local knowledgeable source speaking to us stated that one carried a Glock pistol.

Furthermore, the same source stated that one assailant arrived to Turkey one year prior to the attack and then traveled to Syria’s Raqqa Province for training, while the two others joined him several months later. After a period of training, the three returned to Istanbul.

Death tolls
At the time of writing, 41 people have been killed, and 239 others were wounded as a result of the attack. Of these deaths, at least 13 were foreign nationals, including from Ukraine, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Tunisia, Uzbekistan, China, and Jordan.

Security operations
Reports indicate that during the overnight hours of June 29-30, Turkish security forces arrested 13 people during counter-militancy operations in Istanbul, include three foreign nationals of unspecified nationality.

Airports update
While airport operations, including all arriving and departing flights, were suspended following the attack, the airport was reportedly reopened for limited traffic at 02:20. Initial flights began arriving and departing at 05:00. Multiple flights had also been redirected to Istanbul’s Sabiha Gokcen International Airport and Izmir’s Adnan Menderes Airport at the time of the incident.

While at this time, Istanbul’s Ataturk International Airport is open to regular air traffic, various delays were reported throughout June 29 due to intensified security measures in and around the airport. This includes additional security force deployments to the airport.

Assessments

Sophistication of multi-pronged attack indicates Islamic State (IS) responsibility
The attack comes amidst an escalated threat of militancy throughout Turkey, with multiple large-scale acts of militancy recorded in central locales since the beginning of the year. Most recently, this includes a suicide car bomb explosion at Istanbul’s Beyazit Square on June 7. That said, the multi-faceted attack at Istanbul’s Ataturk International Airport remains highly notable, given its status as the third largest international airport in Europe, with nearly 42 million people traveling through the airport in 2015, as well as the large number of foreign nationals traveling through this locale. With this in mind, the attack was likely intended to target tourist interests in order to gain more publicity and severely damage Turkey’s economy, which largely thrives on tourism.

While no group has claimed responsibility for the attack as of yet, we assess that it was likely carried out by militants belonging to the Islamic State (IS). In this context, IS, dependent on its image for support and recruitment, likely seeks to conduct spectacular attacks globally at this time due to the setbacks the group is facing in Iraq, Syria, and Libya. The threat of attacks is further elevated at this time due to Ramadan, which marks the anniversary of the founding of the caliphate.

IS’s responsibility for the attack is supported by the sophisticated modus operandi of the incident, namely a coordinated attack in three separate locations, including a diversion stage, as well as the target, which is an international hub for foreign nationals. The attack involved shooting followed by suicide bombings, a common tactic of the jihadist militant group. This assessment is bolstered by the IS attack plot foiled in Istanbul that we reported on June 18, when security forces seized suicide vests and assault rifles in the city’s Pendik and Basaksehir Districts, indicating plans for the use of an identical tactic. In addition, it is important to note the similarities between this attack, and the attack carried out by IS in Brussels on March 22, where three suicide bombers also attacked the city’s airport, as well as opened fire on civilians with assault rifles prior to detonating themselves. This overall strategy, as well as choice of weaponry, continues to highlight the jihadist group’s modus operandi when carrying out such large-scale attacks.

The attack was planned well in advance and followed a long period of intelligence-gathering to include on-ground reconnaissance at the airport. The event further displayed a high level of coordination and sophistication, as militants detonated themselves at three different points at the airport, two inside the terminal and one outside. This was likely an attempt to split security forces’ response and increase the potential that at least one attacker would successfully breach the airport’s security measures. This is further underscored by reports that the attacker in the parking lot detonated first, drawing security forces to the area, as well as creating a bottleneck of people near the entrance to the terminal.

Moreover, after thorough review of video footage and images of the attack, we conclude that the assailants demonstrated a high level of proficiency in use of their assault rifles and were well-trained. This is further exemplified by their reported training in Syria. Also, as seen with the jihadist group’s previously claimed large-scale attacks, namely Brussels and the Paris attacks on November 13, 2015, the assailants’ tactics demonstrate that they were attempting to inflict mass casualties. With this in mind, the incident at the airport demonstrates a repeating modus operandi of high-volume attacks at the entrance halls of airport terminals, which are accessible relative to the heavily guarded sterile areas of airports, additionally highlighting the vulnerability of the long lines caused by security measures to these areas.

The attack comes one week after the arrest of the June 18 IS cell in Istanbul, which included two individuals of Russian descent. This further indicates the existence of a well-established IS infrastructure in the vicinity of the city, well-connected to IS’s central leadership and recruitment network. In this context, the fact that the attackers were from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia’s Dagestan area suggests that the individuals were directed by the central organization to establish a cell in Turkey. This further indicates the potentially growing radicalization of Muslim individuals in these countries, particularly in Russia’s predominantly-Muslim populated regions in the Caucasus, which experiences Islamist militant activity.

While suspected IS-linked attacks have been conducted in Istanbul before, including a suicide bombing along Istiklal Caddesi on March 19, and another at Sultanahmet Square on January 12, none of them have been officially claimed by the jihadist group. This was likely in order to avoid a general large-scale conflict with Turkey, and to prevent alienating potential IS sympathizers within the Turkish populace. However, the sophistication of the attack and notability of the target suggests that the jihadist group may claim responsibility for the incident in the near future. Furthermore, the worldwide attention granted to this attack, as well as its spectacular method is likely to serve as an inspiration and role model for additional militant groups in Turkey and worldwide.

Successful attack underscores challenges for Turkish security apparatus; heightened security measures likely to be implemented
The incident underscores difficulties faced by Turkish security forces in mitigating all threats presented by the multitude of militant groups operating within the country, even at locales deemed heavily secured. Security forces face challenges in profiling suspected IS members due to the diverse nationalities comprising the group’s affiliates. It is noteworthy that militants were likely attempting to cross through the first security checkpoint to stage attacks deeper within the airport’s terminal but were prevented by the security forces, preventing a much larger-scale attack from materializing. That said, it is notable that the security personnel were distracted and concentrated their efforts to one area, namely the parking area where the first attacker detonated, more easily allowing the other two attackers to enter the airport. It is further notable that as demonstrated by the attack footage, after one attacker was shot and wounded by a police officer inside the terminal, falling to the ground and dropping his rifle, several seconds passed until he detonated his explosive belt, time during which the officer could have neutralized him.

Following this incident, Turkey’s security apparatus will likely adopt a series of heightened protocols in order to mitigate further threats. This includes intensified security measures in and around Istanbul’s Ataturk International Airport, including checkpoints entering and exiting the airport’s grounds, as well as additional security checks within the facility itself. These security protocols will also likely be extended to other major airports and transportation hubs throughout the country. Finally, security forces will likely enhance security measures in Istanbul and in other centralized locales throughout the country, including Ankara and Izmir. This is likely to include further arrest raids of suspected militant hideouts, and checkpoints to and from these major cities.

With this in mind, Turkish security forces will likely consider more forceful measures in retaliating to the attack and responding to the threat presented by the militant group in general. This will likely include an increase in airstrikes against IS’s positions in northern Syria. Additionally, Turkish authorities may consider conducting cross-border operations between Turkey and Syria to better secure the porous border and prevent IS militants from entering the country. Last, Turkish authorities may reconsider a proposed “safe zone” in northern Syria to further damage IS capabilities in Syria.

Recommendations

Those operating or residing in Turkey are advised to contact us at [email protected] or +44 20-3540-0434 for itinerary and contingency support options.
Those planning to travel through Turkey’s airports, specifically Ataturk International Airport, should allot for heightened security measures and long lines, extending the time needed for pre-departure.
Travelers on connecting flights are advised to avoid unnecessary travel outside the secured zones of the airport.
Avoid unnecessary confrontations with security forces, due to their heightened tensions and alertness across Turkey.
Allot for checkpoints and heightened security measures nationwide.

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Intelligence Analysis: The Kurd’s shifting role in the Syrian conflict

“Deal with your friends as if they will become your enemies tomorrow, and deal with your enemies as if they will become your friends tomorrow.” It’s a proverb passed along through Kurdish generations — and a telling pretext to the Kurdish strategy in today’s conflict in Syria. In recent weeks, this once dormant player has awoken from its slumber, and may just provide Syria’s desperate rebels with a much needed boost to break their deadlock with the Assad regime.

Reports indicate that YPG militiamen and Syrian rebels have agreed to share control of the strategic Sheikh Maqsood District of northern Aleppo, cutting off regime supply routes to a hospital, prison, and other key positions. Rebel fighters entered the district largely unopposed on March 31. On April 6, the Syrian military bombarded Kurdish neighborhoods in northern Aleppo, killing 15 people in a likely response to this new arrangement. The following day, Kurdish militiamen attacked a Syrian military checkpoint in the city, killing five troops.

PYD supporters at a funeral for a deceased member. — PYD supporters at a funeral for a deceased member

Further east, Syrian military units attacked a checkpoint manned by Kurdish militiamen in the northeastern city of Qamishli on April 4. Hours later, militiamen from the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG) attacked two Syrian military positions on the outskirts of Qamishli. The attacks resulted in a number of deaths on both sides and marked the first such incident to occur in the predominantly Kurdish Hasakah Province since the Syrian military withdrew from the region’s urban centers in the summer of 2012.

Continue reading Intelligence Analysis: The Kurd’s shifting role in the Syrian conflict →

Strategic Analysis: Prospects for a negotiated solution in Syria

They say the road to hell is paved with good intentions. It’s a lesson that Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib, the leader of the Syrian National Coalition (SNC), likely learned when he sparked a firestorm within the Syrian opposition after declaring his willingness to enter into negotiations with the Assad regime on January 30. As part of his stated conditions, al-Khatib demanded the release of 160,000 political prisoners being held by the Assad regime and the renewal of expired passports for Syrian dissidents abroad.

Until al-Khatib’s remarks, the SNC’s official stance had been to reject all negotiations with the Assad regime unless the embattled dictator agrees to relinquish power. It this comes as no surprise that other SNC officials and their backers in the region were quick to denounce al-Khatib’s statements as unrepresentative of the coalition’s policies. On February 5, the Coalition came together to issue an official rejection of al-Khatib’s proposal, even after it had been softened to include demanding that Assad cede power as an outcome.

Their outrage did little to stop al-Khatib from reiterating his willingness to negotiate during a security conference in Munich, where he also met with Russian and Iranian officials.

The locally-based Syrian-based National Coordination Committee, which initially organized non-violent protests, offered its support for al-Khatib, reiterating its stance that a political solution must be found to end the conflict. The Assad regime has yet to offer an official response, although a regime source described the development as positive.

Continue reading Strategic Analysis: Prospects for a negotiated solution in Syria →

Strategic Analysis: Consequences of religious influences in the Syrian conflict

ashura — Shiite Muslims commemorate the Ashura holiday, the date marking the death of Hussein at the Battle of Karbala.

While discussing the bloodshed in Syria at a September 7 conference held in Turkey, Prime Minister Erdogan drew a chilling parallel. “What happened in Karbala 1,332 years ago is what is happening in Syria today,” he said, comparing the Syrian revolution to the most divisive event in Islamic history, the Battle of Karbala.

Those in the West with any interests in the region have much to learn from Erdogan’s history lesson. What was originally depicted as a popular uprising against tyranny is now undeniably a war for religious supremacy in the Middle East. In this war, those Syrians who originally took to the streets in their aspirations for democracy have become the only guaranteed losers.

In the year 680 AD, Hussein Ibn Ali, grandson of the Prophet Mohammed and 70 of his followers confronted 1,500 fighters from the Umayyad Caliphate in present day Iraq. Hussein had embarked on a crusade to wrest control of the caliphate from his archrival Yazid I, only to be slaughtered along with his family. Hussein’s followers would eventually form the Shiite sect of Islam, and remain locked in a bitter rivalry with Yazid’s fellow Abu Bakr supporters, whose descendants comprise the Sunni sect.
Continue reading Strategic Analysis: Consequences of religious influences in the Syrian conflict →

Intelligence Analysis: Is a Kurdish State on the Horizon?

While the media is focused on Iranian nuclear talks, the war in Syria, and the elections in Egypt, Iraqi Kurdistan (KRG) is making headways in severing Baghdad’s grip over its national ambitions, chiefly the establishment of an independent Kurdish state.

Still, numerous obstacles remain along with plenty of regional and international dissenters, not to mention the task of overcoming a web of Kurdish political rivalries. While a myriad of concerns exist, fresh geopolitical realities are furthering the Iraqi Kurdish cause. Those realities, which have manifested into a new pipeline deal with Turkey, are turning the KRG into an influential and crucial player in the Middle East, which could arguably propel a push for Kurdish independence – sooner rather than later.

PKK fighters — Female fighters in the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)

While ethnic Kurds are spread out throughout Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey, their Iraqi brethren have advanced the most in terms of achieving Kurdish-nationalist goals. Since 2005, Iraqi Kurdistan is a semi-autonomous region, and one that is secured by its own forces, relatively stable, and increasingly able to make unilateral foreign policy decisions – much to the chagrin of Baghdad. Moreover, the defeat of their premier threat, the Iraqi army, by the Americans in 2003, contributed immensely to Kurdish sovereignty. Then America’s continued presence fostered a period of internal stability and growth, while the region’s preoccupation with a ruthless Sunni and Shiite bloodletting enabled the KRG to entrench itself as a formidable player in Iraqi politics.

Continue reading Intelligence Analysis: Is a Kurdish State on the Horizon? →

Israel’s Revamped Policy of Peripheral Alliances

The Jewish State will continue to secure its interests by aligning with nations beyond the greater Middle East

prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu-and-south-sudanese-president-salva-kiir-m-31634 — Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu greets South Sudanese President Salva Kiir

Following the signing of the 1993 Oslo Accords, Israel managed to deescalate its decades long conflict with the Arab world with an earnest effort to forge a peace process with the Palestinians with a goal to quell mutual hostility and acrimony. Over the last decade, however, the peace talks witnessed setbacks beginning in 2001, which subsequently led to an escalation in violence. Frustration with negotiations and actions taken by Israel’s leadership led to a militant campaign carried out by the PLO and other Palestinian factions, making Israel vulnerable to heightened security threats. This escalation hampered the Jewish state’s diplomatic ties, especially with its one time regional ally, Turkey. Due to the escalation and its confrontation with ongoing diplomatic challenges, Israel has responded by returning to and employing an ‘old’ foreign relation policy in a new way.

Continue reading Israel’s Revamped Policy of Peripheral Alliances →

Israel-Cyprus relations: Revolutionary alliance or negotiating tactic?

By Dan R.

The discovery of natural gas off the shores of Cyprus and Israel in the eastern Mediterranean has marked the beginning of a new chapter in the Middle East conflict. Reports began to surface last week, claiming that Israeli Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, will discuss the stationing of Israeli fighter jets at a Cypriot airbase on his visit to the island nation on February 16. If such reports prove to be accurate, the event has the potential to be a revolutionary strategic alliance. However, the aforementioned discussions may in fact be purely an Israeli negotiating tactic in an effort to bridge the rift between it and its former ally Turkey.

The Middle East is widely known as the staging ground for the Arab-Israeli conflict. Yet, there is a lesser known conflict, greatly overshadowed by that between Israel and her Arab neighbors – that which involves Turkey and Cyprus. The conflict between Turkey and Cyprus, like the Arab-Israeli, also has a history of bloody confrontation on religion, ethnicity, territory and recognition. However, the aspect that reaches headlines above all others is the ongoing dispute over natural gas deposits that lay off the Cypriot southern coast. The discovery launched a thus far rhetorical battle over drilling rights between Greek Cyprus and Turkey as the patron of the Greek Republic’s breakaway Turkish Cypriot counterpart.

det_noble ferrington — American-operated natural gas exploration site Noble Ferrington

Israel has developed and maintained several natural gas drilling and pumping platforms in the eastern Mediterranean Sea in its Exclusive Economic Zone. Moreover, Israeli companies, such as Delek, own a significant share of drilling platforms in Cyprus. Israel thus, likely sees the natural gas reserves as a strategic asset that is vital to ensure Israel’s economic and energy independence.

Israel is well known for its determination and dedication with regard to the protection of its interests positioned outside its borders. That said, the stationing of a permanent air force operation base on foreign soil would essentially be a revolution in Israeli military affairs. If the reports are true, this will be the first time that Israel will deploy IDF airmen outside the borders of Israel (not including Palestinian territories), a step that would likely require legislative action.

When examining the tactical, operational, and strategic military benefits for a deployment of fighter jets in Cyprus, one would have to assess the constant parameters, like the distance from drilling and pumping platforms, coupled with reaction and flight time. Upon their inspection, one would discover that the distance to such drilling installations from either the Cypriot or Israeli air bases is negligible. The similar distances thus make the disproportion in reaction and flight time only a matter of a few seconds, and therefore, providing no significant tactical, operational, or strategic benefits. Continue reading Israel-Cyprus relations: Revolutionary alliance or negotiating tactic? →

Is Cyprus Ready for Reunification?

by Jay R.

The status quo in Cyprus does not provide the needed atmosphere for reuniting the island.

Cyprus remains divided under Turkish and Greek influences.

After decades of partition, Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders are set to meet once again at Greentree Estate in Long Island, New York, under United Nations auspices. So, one must ask, after decades-long negotiations, why should we expect a different outcome after the two-day talks beginning on January 23? The answer, we probably should not.

As many experts on conflict resolution will say, the most appropriate atmosphere for resolution is that both sides are a party to a mutually hurting stalemate (MHS) – a condition in which neither side feels that it can gain from the current situation. Looking at the disparity that exists between Greek and Turkish Cyprus, it is clear that the status quo is more viable for Greek Cypriots over their Turkish counterparts. Continue reading Is Cyprus Ready for Reunification? →

The Middle East and North Africa In 2012: What Lies Ahead?

By Max Security’s Intelligence Department

The feelings of hope and opportunity initially evoked by the Arab Spring have evolved into fear that the region may be sliding into a new status quo of instability. We sweep the region from Morocco to Iran to determine that 2012 will be one of the most crucial years in the modern history of the Middle East.

The Maghreb

The Muslim Brotherhood’s recently formed Freedom and Justice Party holds a press conference. The FJP is slated to win nearly 40% of seats in Egypt’s first post-Mubarak parliament. (Bikyamasr)

While North Africa by and large experienced the most significant change from the Arab Spring uprisings, it would be a grave mistake to place the fate of these politically diverse set of nations into one. In Morocco, the people still have great respect for the region’s oldest monarchy, sentiment which prevented widespread unrest from engulfing the nation this past year. The recent victory of moderate Islamist factions in parliament forces the monarchy to balance between their wishes, while keeping Morocco an attractive address for foreign investment to keep the economy on its feet. While Morocco can be expected to remain relatively stable, a widening gap between rich and poor and growing unemployment only works to the favor of the liberal February 20 reformers and the outlawed Islamist Justice and Spirituality movement, which currently remain marginalized.

In Algeria, the situation is quite different. The country emerged unscathed from the Arab Spring, not out of any sort of respect for the military-backed government, but rather out of fears for a repeat of the country’s bloody civil war which is still fresh in the minds of most of the population. While stability prevailed in 2011, tensions are brewing beneath the surface as Algerians come to realize that they are indeed the last nation to tolerate a corrupt military dictatorship which has failed to provide both physical and economic security. The success of Islamist parties to the East and West has emboldened Algeria’s own conservative opposition to demand reforms ahead of the upcoming elections-slated for the Spring of 2012. Moreover Bouteflika’s ailing health places the military and its allies in a considerable predicament, as replacing Bouteflika without elections will only provide fuel to an increasingly disillusioned population. The loss of the Bouteflika regime would spell a considerable setback in North Africa’s war against Al Qaeda, which despite recent losses- still has its sights set on fomenting instability in Algeria.

Continue reading The Middle East and North Africa In 2012: What Lies Ahead? →

Erdogan’s Cypriot Quagmire

Turkish warships on maneuvers in the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey has since backtracked on recent threats against Cypriot natural resource exploration.

By Jay R.

As the Arab Spring has forced successive leaders from their posts, Turkey has been positioning itself to be the hegemon of influence in the region. This effort can be seen through the visits of Prime Minister Erdogan to Egypt and Libya, in addition to his nation’s strong stance against Assad’s Allawite regime in Syria.

Turkey has also been the sole voice of contention with regard to Cyprus’s natural gas exploration efforts in the eastern Mediterranean – a voice that has threatened a gamut of responses from the severing of its ties with the European Union to an all out attack on Cyprus’ drilling installations. This last stance however may have been the bite that was too much for Turkey and quite possibly the reasoning behind its recently softened position on the issue.

Turkish-Cypriot relations persist in contradiction to the rest of the world, as it is the only nation that recognizes the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, while not acknowledging the Greek-administered Republic of Cyprus. This lone fact has led to the espousal of anti-Greek Cypriot rhetoric – rhetoric that seems to have backed Turkey into a corner of which it is now trying to break out of.

Continue reading Erdogan’s Cypriot Quagmire →