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US, UK, France missile strikes against Syrian government likely attempt to deter Damascus from further use of chemical weapons – Syria Analysis

Executive Summary

During the early morning hours of April 14, the US, UK, and France fired more than 100 cruise missiles against Syrian government facilities in Homs Province and near Damascus.

The strikes are likely an effort by the West to deter the Syrian government from further use of chemical weapons, as well as to send a message to Iran and Russia, amidst their perceived expansion across the Middle East.

The attacks are unlikely to significantly impact the Syrian conflict on-the-ground in the long-term, given pro-government forces’ overall superiority over rebel forces.

While tensions will increase between the parties, an escalation of hostilities between Russia and the West remains unlikely at this time.

Iranian-backed groups may target US interests and allies across the region over the coming days.

We advise against all travel to Damascus and Aleppo, given the general threat of indiscriminate aerial bombardment and artillery shelling from government forces as well as attacks by various militant groups. Attacks by rebel forces may include the use of rocket propelled grenades, suicide bombings, and mortar attacks.

Current Situation

During the early morning hours of April 14, the US, France, and the UK conducted multiple strikes against Syrian military facilities across Syria, with approximately 120 cruise missiles fired at these targets.

The strikes, which were carried out from naval vessels in response to the suspected chemical attack by the Syrian government against the town of Douma on April 7, targeted government military facilities in Homs Province and the Damascus area. Near Damascus, US Tomahawk missiles hit Kiswah Military Base, Mezzeh Airbase, Dumayr Airbase, as well as a scientific research facility in Barzeh District. In Homs Province, the attacks, which involved the UK’s Shadow Storm cruise missiles, targeted a scientific research facility in Qusayr District. At the time of writing, while French forces also carried out missile attacks, their exact targets and scale are yet to be known.

According to pro-government forces, the Syrian Arab Army’s (SAA) air defense systems intercepted the “majority of the US fired missiles at the Damascus’ area”.

While at the time of writing the exact number of casualties is unconfirmed, according to pro-government media outlets, three civilians were wounded as a result of the attack.

US Secretary of Defense James Mattis stated,“Right now, this is a one-time shot”. UK Prime Minister Theresa May stressed that there was “no practicable alternative to the use of force”. However, May also stated that the strikes were not about “regime change”.

The Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson condemned the missile attacks. The spokesperson further stressed that there were no Russian casualties as a result of the strikes.

Assessments & Forecast

Assessments: Strikes likely symbolic and meant to deter Syrian government from further use of chemical weapons, send message to Moscow, Tehran

The strike highlights our previous assessments that the Western response to the chemical weapons attack will be localized and target facilities linked to the use of chemical weapon, although they were larger than last year’s US response to the Khan Shaykhun incident. The use of cruise missiles, which allow attacking targets from a standoff distance, was likely meant to avoid any potential risks associated with operating in or near Syrian government airspace.Because the strikes hit research centers and storage facilities, the West’s response will likely impede the short-term capabilities of the Syrian government to use chemical weapons. However, in the medium-term, particularly in light of recent reports that the Syrian government transferred some of their weapons and forces away from multiple bases, these capabilities were likely not be significantly damaged and it is therefore possible that further attacks using chemical agents may be witnessed across Syria over the coming weeks and months.

In spite of the still relatively limited scope of the strike, the West’s operations in Syria are likely symbolic and meant to deter the Syrian government from using such weapons, especially because of the large number of targeted bases and installations. The strikes also aim to prevent the “normalization” of the usage of chemical agents across the globe, as these type of weapons had been used persistently throughout the Syrian conflict. Despite the low likelihood that many missiles were actually intercepted, if at all, these claims by the Syrian government, as well as the lack of significant casualties among pro-government forces, will likely be capitalized on to bolster its image among its troops and supporters across the country. Coupled with the aforementioned assessments regarding the potential for further chemical attacks by the SAA, the strikes’ deterrence impact will also be limited.

Globally, the development comes amidst an uptick in tensions between the West and Russia over Moscow’s perceived aggressive policies across the globe. These include Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, alleged interference in elections in Western countries, as well as most recently, the suspected attempted assassination of a Russian national in the UK. The West likely used these attacks to deter Moscow from engaging in further actions perceived as hostile towards the West and its allies. In the Middle East, the strikes occurred amidst growing concerns among Western allies, chiefly Israel and Saudi Arabia, regarding Iran’s growing regional influence, including in Syria. The Western strike against Tehran’s important ally, is likely an attempt to intimidate Iran and send a message that its actions are not unnoticed.

Assessments: Strikes unlikely to impact on-ground situation in medium-to long-term; retaliation by Iranian-backed elements against US interests, allies possible across region

FORECAST: In the short-term, the US-led operations may slightly impact the situation on-the-ground in the vicinity of the targeted facilities. In addition to hindering their operational capabilities, the strikes also led pro-government forces to reportedly transfer some of their weapons and vehicles away from bases. This now forces them to redeploy and reorganize. During this period of time, rebel forces may exploit the possible disarray from the strike and launch assaults on government-held territories and capture some areas from the Syrian government. This is especially likely on fronts near targeted facilities, such as the rebel enclave in the Dumayr area, northern Daraa Province, and northern Homs Province. Nonetheless, in the medium- to long-term, given the strikes’ limited scale and overall superiority of pro-government forces vis-a-vis rebel forces, the developments are unlikely to significantly impact the situation on-ground, with the SAA and its allies likely reversing any possible short-term gains by rebel forces.

The attack by the US, France, and the UK does not represent a shift in the West’s policy regarding the Syrian conflict. This is highlighted by the statements of these countries’ officials that the strikes are a singular, isolated response. However, should the use of chemical weapons persist, additional missile strikes, as well as air raids to a lesser degree, may reoccur over the coming months, targeting the Syrian government’s military facilities.

The operations are liable to increase the already heightened tensions between Moscow and the West. However, particularly given the lack of reports about Russian casualties as a result of the missile attacks, an escalation of hostilities between Russia and the US, UK, and France remains highly unlikely at this time. Instead, Moscow’s response will focus on diplomatic measures against these three countries, such as sanctions. This assessment is highlighted by the April 13 bill by Russia’s Duma to implement sanctions on US alcohol, tobacco, and agro-products. Additionally, cyber attacks by Russian hackers against government institutions in the UK, US, and France may also be witnessed over the coming days.

The events are unlikely to have a significant impact on regional dynamics as a whole. However, it remains possible that a localized retaliation by pro-government forces and Iranian-backed militias will take place against US troops and their backed forces in Syria, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria and factions within the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in southern Homs Province. Should this occur, it will likely include mortar fire and IED detonations. Attacks against US interests may also occur in Iraq, where such actions have occurred in the past. Iranian-backed elements throughout the region may also seek to target countries that are considered Western allies. This mainly includes Saudi Arabia, as the Shiite Houthis may be directed by Tehran to intensify their ballistic missile attacks deep in Saudi territory. Additionally, albeit to a much lesser degree, it cannot be ruled out that Iranian-backed groups, such as Hezbollah and some Palestinian factions, will target Israel, including in the form of IED and anti-tank guided missile attacks against Israel Defense Forces (IDF) troops along the border with Syria.

Recommendations

Those remaining in Damascus should ensure that contingency and emergency evacuation plans are updated due to the potential for further deterioration in the security situation. Avoid all travel to outlying areas of the city given the persistent threat of militancy.

Avoid all travel to outlying areas and cities including Daraa, Homs, Hama, and Idlib due to persistent fighting and heightened risk of kidnapping targeting foreigners, particularly in combat zones and rebel held areas.

Those seeking to enter Syria are advised to confirm the status of their crossing points and final destinations, remaining aware of recent kidnapping incidents and the nature of military forces deployed in those areas.

What does the July 24 Lahore suicide bombing say about the TTP militant group’s changing influence in the city – Pakistan Analysis

Current Situation

The Lahore suicide bombing attack reportedly occurred at 17:30 (local time) along Ferozepur Road, in the vicinity of the Arfa Karim Tower and one kilometer away from the Punjab Province Chief Minister’s house, where he was holding a meeting at the time. At least 26 people were killed and 53 others injured, including police officers and civilians.

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The city administration declared an emergency in hospitals and appealed for blood donations. Unconfirmed reports indicate that the motorcycle that the attacker used to arrive at the scene was registered to a resident of the Faisal Town area of the city. Approximately one hour after the incident, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s central spokesman Mohammad Khurrassani claimed responsibility for the bombing through an email, declaring it a suicide attack.

The attack targeted a group of police officers that were deployed to clear street vendors from the area, which has since been cordoned off by a heavy contingent of security forces and the section of the road sealed. The road serves as the main link between Lahore and Kasur and is a busy thoroughfare, with Lahore’s Metro Bus also passing through.

Earlier on July 24, at least 24 people killed and 42 injured in a suicide car bomb attack in Kabul that was quickly claimed by the Taliban. Meanwhile, on April 5 four security personnel and two civilians were killed in a TTP-claimed suicide attack against census workers and their military escort along Bedian Road, while its splinter group, Jamaatul Ahrar (TTP-JA), claimed a suicide attack outside the Punjab Assembly on February 13 that resulted in the death of 13 people. On July 10, the US State Department and UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) both issued advisory warnings of a heightened threat of militant attacks in Lahore has been targeted in a series of blasts over the past year.

Assessments & Forecast

Attack highlights TTP influence in Punjab, possible increased cooperation with Afghanistan Taliban

While groups like the Islamic State continue to operate in more peripheral areas of the country, especially in tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, the TTP and its offshoot TTP-JA remain the only militant groups that have demonstrated the consistent capability to carry out large-scale attacks in Lahore, likely due to the strong influence the group is believed to possess in Islamist schools throughout Punjab, especially in the province’s southern regions. This is evidenced by the fact that the perpetrator of the attack was likely a Lahore native, given that the motorcycle was registered to a local.

Furthermore, the group almost exclusively targets security forces and tends to issue claims of responsibility within hours of attacks, consistent with the victims of today’s attack and the rapid claim of responsibility. In this context, the claim is most likely credible and further highlights the group’s position as the dominant militant group in the Punjab Province.

The TTP is loosely allied with Afghanistan’s Taliban insurgents but focuses primarily on targeting Pakistani government officials. Both groups maintain a modus operandi which seeks to carry out successive attacks in a relatively short time span. The fact that the Lahore attack immediately followed the large-scale bombing in Kabul seems to suggest a degree of coordination and thus increasing cooperation between the two groups. The FCO and US State Department Warnings, issued just two weeks before today’s bombing, suggest that the threat of attack was, in fact, imminent and underscores security forces’ inability to hamper such movements, despite credible intelligence revealed by Western foreign ministries that suggested it would likely take place.

Attack highlights consistent vulnerabilities in security apparatus, likely to compel uptick in anti-militancy raids, protests in coming days

FORECAST: Given reports of a significant shortage of available blood in the hospitals that the victims were sent to, casualties are likely to significantly inflate in the coming hours and days. This is liable to fuel criticism by opposition groups and locals, which may allege that emergency response authorities are not adequately adapting to the growing threat of attacks in the city. Protests are liable to take place throughout the city over the coming days, both in solidarity with the victims and in condemnation of the government’s inability to thwart and adequately respond to the attack, similar to the protests that took place in the day following the February 13 attack.

Security and emergency personnel are already reportedly on the scene, but the extent of damage and cause are yet to be ascertained, meaning that a significantly bolstered security force is liable to remain in the area throughout the evening and into July 25. Keeping in mind the reports of road closures in the vicinity, many local businesses and major roads are likely to remain closed and severe traffic congestion is liable to be reported throughout the area as well as in the adjacent city of Kasur.

FORECAST: Following the recent attack on April 5, security authorities carried out a large-scale, anti-militant operation at the Punjab Housing Society in the city, just 10 days later, on April 15. Given this past precedent and in a likely attempt by the government to project an offensive posture following the most recent blast, an uptick in anti-militant raids in the city targeting Madrasas allegedly sympathetic to TTP is likely to occur. Attacks may also center on Faisal Town, where the owner of the motorcycle used in the attack is believed to reside.

Recommendations

We advise against all nonessential travel to Pakistan given the heightened threat of militant attacks, criminality, kidnappings and sectarian tensions throughout the country. Those operating or residing in Lahore are advised to avoid nonessential travel to the Afra Karim Tower and its environs given the recent attack and reported heavy security deployments. Further, those operating throughout the city are advised to maintain heightened vigilance for the remainder of July 24 given the latent potential for copycat or repeat attacks. If transiting through the city as well as the adjacent, we advise to allot for significant disruption to traffic and business continuity, especially in the vicinity of Ferozepur Road.

Why suicide bombing in city of Sidi Bouzid highlights persistent threat of militancy in the country – Tunisia Analysis

Current Situation: Suicide Bombing in Sidi Bouzid

According to the state news agency, clashes between militants and security personnel in Sidi Bouzid which commenced during the morning hours of April 30, had concluded in the late afternoon hours. According to the source, in addition to a militant who previously died when detonating an explosive belt and another who was fatally shot by security forces, four other militants were arrested, while no casualties were inflicted on security personnel. Initial reports suggest that one of the militants who was killed was “an emir of Okba Ibn Nafaa Brigade (OIB)”, referring to the local affiliate of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and that the cell had “capitalized on civil unrest to infiltrate the area, and had planned to conduct an attack during the month of Ramadan”.

Assessments & Forecast

While complete details surrounding the incident have yet to fully emerge at the time of writing, the incident is highly notable due to the reported use of a suicide belt, which indicates a relatively high-level of sophistication and the capabilities of the militants, as well as a likely desire to conduct a high-profile attack. That being said, as no casualties were caused to security forces, as well as the fact that the incident itself took place in a remote location and appeared to not have been aimed at a notable target as would be expected in such an attack, indicate that the incident was not the attack meant to be carried out by the militants. Instead, it is more likely that security forces detected the militants when the latter were still ahead of launching their intended attack, and targeted them, thus forcing them to react, foiling the originally planned militant operation. These developments, in turn, underscore the relatively high capabilities of Tunisian security forces, as they were able to detect and confront the militants, likely foiling what would have been a large-scale attack.

Furthermore, given that there were several militants involved in the incident, it is possible that their plan involved conducting a multi-pronged attack involving a suicide bomber as well as small arms fire, thus maximizing the potential level of casualties. Furthermore, despite the location in which the incident took place, it cannot be ruled out that the militants were using the area for staging purposes prior to locating to a different part of the country where the actual attack would have been conducted, which could have included a central city in the country or a soft target, such as a tourist locale or strategic infrastructure.

Moreover, the incident serves to underscore the persistent underlying threat of militant attacks in Tunisia, presented by the Islamic State (IS) and AQIM through its local affiliate OIB, who both have a known physical presence in the country. This threat is further manifested in frequent arrests of militants of various capacities throughout the country, as well as less frequent attacks conducted in the outlying areas of the country, which are mostly aimed at security forces and related targets.

With this in mind, such a persistent entrenchment of militants in Tunisia, despite efforts to the contrary which include a nationwide ongoing state of emergency, are the result of three main factors in particular. First, the populaces’ growing susceptance to radicalization, particularly in the outlying areas of Tunisia, which is a result of prolonged economic difficulties and growing disenchantment with the events following the 2011 revolution due to a perception of marginalization by the government. This allows for a large pool of potential recruits for militant groups, but also logistic support to active cells, which facilitate their operations within the population’s midst. Second, the terrain in which militant groups operate, which largely includes mountains and dense vegetation, making it harder to detect militants and providing them with an advantage when attempting to avoid or confront security forces. Third, the porous borders with Libya and Algeria, in which both AQIM and IS have a presence, which allows militants to transfer fighters and weapons into Tunisia to support their efforts in the country.

Taken as a whole, the development is indicative of the intentions of militants to conduct a high profile attack in Tunisia, likely as part of their interest to expand their operations in the country and assume a more prominent role in it. This coincides with a similar process witnessed in Algeria, and likely stems from the ongoing regional competition between IS and AQIM over dominance of the Jihadist landscape, which will grant either of the group’s leverage when vying for their shared resource pool, namely potential recruits, funds, and popular support from the global radicalized Islamist population. FORECAST: With this in mind, given the persistent threat of militancy in the country, coupled with the reported arrest of several of the militants who may provide valuable intelligence information, the Tunisian security forces are liable to launch additional arrest raids throughout the country over the coming days and weeks in order to further mitigate this persistent risk. Nonetheless, given the proven high motivation and capabilities of militants, the manifestation of a successful high profile attack occurring again in Tunisia over the coming weeks and months cannot be ruled out.

Recommendations

Travel to Tunis may continue while adhering to all security precautions regarding militancy and civil unrest. Those operating or residing in Tunisia are advised that we maintain operational capabilities in the country. Contact us at [email protected] or +44 20-3540-0434 for itinerary and contingency support options. We currently advise to maintain heightened vigilance in Tunisia’s coastal areas while avoiding nonessential travel to other outlying towns and cities due to the lack of travel and tourist infrastructure and a heightened risk for civil unrest and militancy. In addition, avoid nonessential travel to the vicinity of government and security installations, as well as political meetings, while maintaining heightened vigilance in the vicinity of hotels and touristic sites, due to the potential threat of militant attacks against such locales. Avoid all travel to the Kasserine, Kef, and Jendouba Governorates, in addition to all border areas, due to jihadist activity and military closures. Furthermore, avoid all travel to within 50 km from the border with Libya, due to the increased threat of attacks originating from Libya targeting Tunisian interests.

Analysis of February wave of militant attacks in Pakistan

Current Situation: Wave of militant attacks in February

On February 10, an offshoot of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Jamaat ul Ahrar (TTP-JA), announced by video the commencement of a new militant operation in the country titled “Operation Ghazi”. The TTP-JA defined the operation to be conducted largely against their traditional targets of government and security installations, as well as other symbols of the rule of law, including members of the judiciary.

In the weeks that followed, at least 140 people were killed in separate attacks across the country, claimed by a number of different groups. Some of the most high-profile attacks include a suicide bombing in Lahore on February 13, which was later claimed by the TTP-JA; a suicide bombing in Peshawar on February 15, which was claimed by the TTP; a suicide bombing against a Sufi shrine on February 16 that killed upwards of 90 and was claimed by the Islamic State (IS); and a combined suicide and shooting attack that killed seven civilians on February 23 outside of Peshawar, which was also claimed by the TTP-JA. The February 13 and 16 attacks involved individuals walking into crowded areas and detonating explosive vests, whereas the February 15 attacker most likely detonated explosives carried by his motorcycle. The February 23 attack also involved the individuals using gunfire in an attempt to enter a government building before detonating.

In response to the recent wave of attacks, the Pakistan Armed Forces announced the counter-militancy operation Radd-ul-Fassad (“Elimination of Discord”), on February 22. Under the new operation, military and paramilitary forces have authority to “indiscriminately” pursue militant suspects, continue augmenting or assuming functions of local law enforcement and intelligence operations, and expand into the Punjab province. The Pakistan Rangers, who had been conducting extensive operations in Sindh, extended into the Punjab on February 24, in a reversal of local government concerns over giving the military more influence in a ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)(PML-N) party stronghold. Whereas the military were previously given limited operational authority in the province in 2016 despite government objections and lengthy negotiations, this new operation was approved relatively quickly by local authorities and grants the Rangers a much wider operational berth in terms of locale and targets. At least 100 suspected militants were reportedly killed by security forces in the first 24 hours of the operations, and hundreds more have been killed or captured to date.

The operation has also been under domestic scrutiny by civil society groups, with scattered reports from the ground indicating that political critics and opposition figures have also been arrested, in addition to protests being held by groups alleging mistreatment of ethnic Pashtuns in Punjab under the Radd-ul-Fasaad banner. Pakistan is home to the largest Pashtun community in the world, with an estimated population of 30 out of 200 million in Pakistan. Despite infrequent high-profile outliers, the Pakistani security apparatus views the peripheral Pashtun population with suspicion due to perceived ethnic ties to Afghanistan, a primary regional adversary and well-known militant incubator.

Assessments & Forecast

Claims and methods of attacks suggest nexus between membership of different militant groups in Pakistan, increased operational capacities.

Despite the fact that the abovementioned attacks were subsequently claimed by several groups, the modus operandi and precedence set by attacks before those in February suggest a level of coordination between groups. This is further bolstered by previous assessments of IS using proxies in Pakistan and their lack of a significant operational presence. For example, the February 16 suicide bombing that was claimed by IS was likely actually perpetrated by Lashkar-e-Jhangvi Al Alami (LeJ-A), which boasts an established history of similar attacks against religious minority gatherings and places of worship, as well as having previously coordinated with IS over the October 24, 2016, suicide attack on a Quetta police station. Additionally, the August 8, 2016, suicide bombing attack on a hospital in Quetta was eventually claimed by IS and the TTP-JA. High-profile attacks with multiple claims, or singular claims that referenced other groups, were a relatively common phenomenon throughout the second half of 2016.

This history of convergence highlights continued operational overlap between these groups in the context of the unusually high rate of use of suicide bombings in February, which require a relatively higher level of operational capacity. Whereas groups have usually relied on less sophisticated methods for attacks involving singular claims, the uptick in the use of suicide bombings across the board for attacks with singular claims suggests that inter-group overlap continues in Pakistan with the onset of Operation Ghazi.

FORECAST: Nevertheless, ongoing efforts against organized militant outfits will likely focus on limiting their capacity for such high-casualty attacks, at least in the near future. Consequently, groups such as the TTP are liable to augment current operations with lower intensity methodologies, including targeted sectarian killings in urban areas, or motorcycle-borne gunman ambushes and IED attacks against security forces in the periphery. Such waves of multiple high-casualty attacks, such as that witnessed in February, are normally interceded by relative lulls, which may be marked by more infrequent attacks taking on forms as described above. As previously mentioned, likely targets include police patrols, military checkpoints, protest rallies due to the high civilian presence, and minority institutions and events.

Operation Radd-ul-Fassad has expanded the influence of the military, although their efficacy is questionable.

While the focus of Radd-ul-Fassad is ostensibly in the tribal border areas where the militant density is thought to be highest, the military has also been able to increase its authority in areas such as Punjab, an area where it normally saw resistance from the PML-N. Furthermore, the military appears to be using Radd-ul-Fassad, at least in part, as a pretext for a crackdown on dissenters and the Pashtun minority, which relates more to longstanding positions held by the military that precede the operation.

FORECAST: Pushback against the perceived excesses of the operation are likely to result in fresh demonstrations from groups who see themselves as being marginalized, including political opposition groups and Pashtun organizations. Protests of this nature have already materialized in Karachi and can be further expected in tribal provinces with high Pashtun densities such as the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Balochistan, as well as Sindh and Punjab. The high numbers of militant deaths and arrests may lead to a temporary lull in militant attacks and may be used by the military to justify their operations.

However, the military’s new nationwide operations are likely not to have a marked effect on long-term militant operations in the country, and may actually serve to exacerbate longstanding political and ethnic tensions, while increasing recruitment to these groups from Pashtun and the Islamist religious demographic.

Recommendations:

We advise against all nonessential travel to Pakistan given the heightened threat of militant attacks, criminality, kidnappings and sectarian tensions throughout the country. As a general precaution, maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of security detachments, government buildings, public areas, diplomatic installations, news stations, military bases, restaurants, high-value soft targets like schools, shopping centers, and religious centers including mosques as they remain potential targets for militant attacks.

Finally, foreigners, particularly Westerners, conducting essential travel in Pakistan are additionally advised to maintain a low profile, exercise heightened vigilance, and avoid if possible locales frequented by foreign, particularly Western nationals. To mitigate the risk of attacks or abductions, ensure that places of stay are equipped with sufficient perimeter security details, alter travel routes, and avoid disclosing sensitive itinerary information to unknown individuals.

Tunisia: Unprecedented ground operation to eradicate militant strongholds in Chaambi Mountains likely to increase jihadist efforts to stage attacks

Current Situation

On April 21, the Tunisian Defense Ministry announced that security forces in the Chaambi Mountains were “gaining ground” against jihadists located in the region, as the military started joint operations involving both ground forces, fighter jets, and helicopters, as well as artillery and mortar shelling. According to the statement, the goal of the operations is to seize control over the entire area that fell under militant control in 2012. Such militant groups include the Okba Ibn Nafaa Brigade, as well as Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia (AST) and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), with AST considered the most active of the three in the country.

On April 11, the Tunisian President extended the closed military zone in Chaambi to neighboring mountains of Sammama, Salloum, and Meghila while on April 16 ground reinforcements were reportedly sent to the region. On April 21 Prime Minister Mehdi Ben Jemaa pledged to eliminate jihadist groups threatening the country while stating that security forces were “moving to the highest point of the mountains”. On May 6 during a visit in the region, President Moncef Marzouki offered amnesty for jihadists “without blood on their hands”.
On April 18 following clashes with militants and security forces in the region, an officer was killed during the explosion of a mine as he and three other soldiers were patrolling the area in a military vehicle. The Tunisian air force then carried several airstrikes on suspected militants positions in the region, while clashes were reported outside the closed military zone, near the industrial area in Kasserine on April 23.
The operation follows intermittent artillery strikes on the area on April 9-11, March 25, February 4-6 and December 31-January 1. However, following deadly clashes between Tunisian ground forces and militants in August 2013, ground operations were halted.
According to an April 28 official government statement, Tunisian anti-terrorist brigades arrested nine suspected jihadists following a security raid in Douar Hicher in the La Manouba District and in the Ettadhamen District near Tunis. According to a communique published by the Interior Ministry, the suspected jihadists were reportedly planning attacks and are linked to other wanted militants remaining at large.

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