Tag Archives: Buenos Aires

Presidential primary to be held amid heightened polarization; Macri likely to win re-election in second round – Argentina Analysis

Written by Federico Sujarchuk 

Executive Summary

The Presidential primary will be held on August 11 prior to the general election for the president, vice-president, National Congress, and the governors of several provinces.

President Mauricio Macri and former President Cristina Kirchner’s choice of running mates reflect the decline of the moderate Peronist opposition, the third largest political force in the country.

Macri’s decision to pick Peronist Senator Pichetto as running mate is likely to bolster his electoral chances and ability to govern.

Kirchner’s decision to run for the vice-presidency and choose Alberto Fernandez as her presidential candidate is unlikely to bolster her chances of winning.

Mandatory primary election likely to soften the expected lead of the Fernandez-Kirchner presidential ticket in the first round of the elections.

FORECAST: Macri likely to win re-election in second round, though Kirchner camp may regain control of most populous Buenos Aires province.

2019 General Elections

Mandatory primary elections are slated to take place on August 11. In this system, which is known as Primarias Abiertas Simultaneas y Obligatorias (PASO), all coalitions run primary elections in the same general polls. All coalitions must take part, both the coalitions with internal factions and coalitions with a single candidacy list.

On October 27, general elections will be held to elect the country’s president, vice-president, members of the National Congress, and the governors of several provinces.

The election of the presidential ticket will be conducted under the ballotage system, a modified version of the two-round system. A candidate can win the presidency in a single round by either winning 45% of the vote, or if they win 40% of the vote while finishing 10 percentage points ahead of the second-place candidate. If no candidate meets either threshold, a runoff on November 24 will take place between the top two candidates.

The candidates and parties taking part in the primaries are as follows:

Argentina Elections Grid


The announcement of the main presidential tickets comes amid a marked deterioration in the economic situation in Argentina over the last year, partly due to a costly drought in the country’s farm belt during 2018 and a sharp increase in the price of financing for emerging countries whose economies have some characteristics of a developed economy but do not satisfy all of the standards. This situation has fostered a significant devaluation of the Argentinian Peso, which was one of the world’s worst-performing currencies in 2018 and lost 37 percent of its value in relation to the US dollar over the last 12 months. This situation, in turn, exacerbated the country’s inflation, which is expected to reach a rate of 39 percent in 2019. This financial situation prompted President Macri to request a 57 billion USD standby loan from the IMF on September 2018 and accept the fund’s required cuts to public spending.

Since then, President Macri’s approval rating fell significantly and has been largely tied to the value of the Argentine Peso in relation to the US dollar. This is due to the close relationship between this particular macroeconomic factor and the country’s inflation problem, which has consistently ranked in recent years as the most pressing issue for the majority of the electorate, higher in the list than other notable concerns such as security and public corruption. Meanwhile, former President Cristina Kirchner has been slowly but consistently rising in the polls in spite of her alleged involvement in a number of high-profile corruption cases.

Marci Popularity VS Peso Stability

Assessments & Forecast

Macri and Kirchner’s choice of running mates reflect the sizeable decline of moderate Peronist opposition

It is notable that both Kichner’s presidential candidate Alberto Fernandez and Macri’s vice presidential candidate Miguel Angel Pichetto, while not particularly well-known, are prominent political figures among the traditional Peronist movement. This movement is largely made up of provincial governors and senators, mayors of the municipalities of Buenos Aires Province, and union figures. It should be noted that in Argentina, provincial governors play a key role in nominating congressional candidates and thus are crucial to lawmaking, and, therefore, to governability. As such, Kirchner and Macri’s choices of running mates were both likely envisioned as attempts to lure as many of the aforementioned actors as possible, who had until recently been the main backers of the moderate Peronist opposition, and are now starting to back either the Kirchner or Macri camps. This is because the governors and mayors fear that the weakening of the moderate Peronist camp could threaten their own chances of re-election.

Moreover, that a prominent figure of the Peronist camp, Sergio Massa, who finished third with 21.4 percent of the vote in the 2015 general elections, announced that he was joining the Kirchner camp as the first candidate for their coalition in the Lower House further supports this assessment. That said, that Massa’s base has traditionally been more anti-Kirchner than anti-Macri and thus his return to the Kirchner camp, having been Kirchner’s Cabinet Chief, is unlikely to prompt a significant portion of his base to vote for the Fernandez-Kirchner ticket.

FORECAST: The moderate Peronist opposition is likely to see the biggest losses of the 2019 general elections, with recent polls indicating they will receive less than half of the votes that Massa gained in 2015. That said, this heightened polarization is unlikely to affect other candidates’ polling, at least until the August 11 primary election.

Ideological Position of Canidates

President Macri’s decision to pick Senator Pichetto as running mate is likely to bolster his electoral chances and governability in a potential second term

Macri’s decision is advantageous not because Pichetto is a particularly popular or well-known figure but rather because of his close relationship with Peronist governors from swing provinces such as Cordoba and Santa Fe, who are likely to discreetly campaign for the Macri camp. This will help boost support among governors, which was already fostered by the federal government upholding financial commitments to the provinces under Macri regardless of their political leanings, a policy which was not sustained under the Kirchner administrations.

Moreover, Pichetto’s influence in the Upper House could offer Macri the ability to pass substantial economic reforms in a second term. This situation, coupled with Pichetto’s reputation as pro-market, evidenced by the fact that he was a key player in allowing Macri to secure a deal with holders of Argentine sovereign bonds in 2016, has had a positive effect on the country’s financial sector and the international markets in recent weeks. This, in turn, is aiding Macri’s anti-inflationary program, which means that the main macroeconomic variables are more likely to remain stable or even slightly improve in the run-up to the elections. Furthermore, since the announcement of the Macri-Pichetto ticket the Argentine Peso gained ten percent of its value in relation to the US Dollar, its largest appreciation since 2002.

Cristina Kirchner’s decision to pick Alberto Fernandez as presidential candidate and run for vice-president unlikely to bolster chances

There are two main reasons that Kirchner taking the vice-president position is unlikely to significantly bolster her chances. Firstly, there are perceptions that Kirchner hinted towards a centrist turn in previous electoral campaigns that never materialized when it came to policy. For example, in the 2007 electoral campaign, she chose a Union Civica Radical (UCR) party member as her running mate and repeatedly claimed her intentions to improve relations with the US, policies which many believe were never enacted. As such, undecided voters are likely to be wary of this new, allegedly more moderate version of Cristina Kirchner. Furthermore, various comments from influential supporters of Kirchner indicating support for modifying the constitution, abolishing the current structure of the judiciary, and freeing politicians jailed in recent corruption cases, could give further weight to these concerns. That said, as previously assessed, Kirchner’s decision to nominate a more moderate Peronist will help boost support of some actors of the traditional Peronist movement, who may bring votes with them. In this regard, the same day the Fernandez-Kirchner ticket was announced eight provincial governors pledged their support.

Secondly, Cristina Kirchner’s decision to run for vice president may end up playing in Macri’s favor. This is because her decision to run for the vice-presidency, rather than the presidency, as well as her overtures to the political center, has eased concerns over the potential impact on the economy. This, in turn, has helped stabilize the economy somewhat, improving Macri’s position, as he typically does better in polls when the economy improves.

Mandatory primary election likely to soften Fernandez-Kirchner’s expected lead in first round

FORECAST: Going forward the Fernandez-Kirchner ticket is likely to sustain a lead over President Macri in the primary and first round, due to the decline of the economy, the ideological closeness of the majority of the smaller leading candidates to the ruling Cambiemos coalition, and their potential to shift votes away from Macri. That said, if Kirchner gains a significant advantage over Macri in the primary, it is likely that some voters who were considering other candidates with a comparable platform to Cambiemos will end up voting for Macri in the first round, fearing that the Fernandez-Kirchner ticket could win outright in a single election.

Average Polling of Canidates (%)

Kirchner camp likely to regain control over Buenos Aires Province

FORECAST: A victory for the Kirchner camp in the Buenos Aires Province, the most populated in the country, seems more plausible, as there is no second round, making Kirchner’s larger support base in the region potentially enough to see Kirchner’s gubernatorial candidate, Axel Kicillof, succeed. Furthermore, the declining economic situation, which has been particularly severe in the province, suggests that the Kirchner camp will regain control. That said, the popularity of the current Buenos Aires provincial governor, Maria Eugenia Vidal, who belongs to Macri’s Propuesta Republicana (PRO), may see her return for a second term. However, should the Kirchner camp regain the province, it could become a base to challenge Macri’s economic reforms, as well as a stepping stone from which to launch another run in the 2023 Presidential election.

G20 Buenos Aires summit 2018 – November 30-December 1 – Argentina Special Analysis

Written and edited by Federico Sujarchuk and Ollie Wiltshire

Executive Summary

Between November 30 and December 1, Argentina will hold the 13th leaders’ summit of the Group of Twenty (G20) in Buenos Aires.

A number of security checkpoints will be established on the roads that lead to the complex hosting the summit and in the vicinity of the hotels where the heads of state and government will be staying.

Anarchist and left-wing groups are expected to hold mass protests throughout the city, many of which will lead to significant instances of violence.

Major disruptions to traffic and business continuity will occur due to security provisions, protests, roadblocks, and public closures during the summit.

Travel to Buenos Aires can continue while maintaining vigilance for an increase in violent crime and protests between November 30-December 1.

Avoid all protests given the potential for violence.

Please be advised

G20 summit

Between November 30 and December 1, Argentina will hold the 13th leaders’ summit of the Group of Twenty (G20). The meeting will be the first-ever G20 summit to be hosted in South America and the most high-profile multilateral event ever held in Argentina.

The city will reportedly host 8,000 summit participants, including foreign leaders, ministers, politicians, and officials. Moreover, at least 2,500 journalists have been granted clearance to cover the event and around 1,000 people will work on the summit’s logistics. The leaders of 19 member nations, plus the European Union, and seven guest nations will meet in Buenos Aires’ Costa Salguero complex, located in the Palermo neighborhood, less than a kilometer away from Jorge Newbery International Airport (AEP).

Official security around the summit

A number of security checkpoints will be established on the roads that lead to the complex and in the vicinity of the hotels where the heads of state and government will be staying. These include Arroyo Street, Avenida Dorrego, Avenida del Libertador, Avenida Alvear, Avenida Ramos Mejia, and Avenida Sarmiento. Moreover, a number of key roads and highways will be closed off to the public for the duration of the summit. These include Avenida 9 de Julio, Avenida Figueroa Alcorta, and Illia and Lugones highways. Subway and other rail services will not operate during the summit. A bolstered security presence has also been confirmed in the downtown area, as well as the neighborhoods of Puerto Madero, Recoleta, and Retiro, where a number of dignitaries will be staying.

Buenos Aires’ Aeroparque Jorge Newbery (AEP) airport and El Palomar Airport (EPA), the city’s recently inaugurated low-cost airport, will be closed to commercial and civil flights between November 29 and December 1. Ezeiza International Airport (EZE), Argentina’s main international airport, is expected to remain open, though its service will be affected by the summit.

Maritime restrictions will be in place between November 29 and December 2 when the commercial port of Buenos Aires will suspend operations. All recreational sailing activities in the Rio de la Plata, as well as parts of the nearby Tigre Delta, will be banned for the duration of the summit. That said, passenger ferry services operating to and from the Buquebus Terminal in the Puerto Madero neighborhood are not slated to be affected.

Over 20,000 police personnel, plus an undisclosed number of military personnel, will be participating in security operations associated with the summit. November 30 will be declared a public holiday in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area in order to ease foot and vehicular traffic.

Opposition actions

A counter-summit with prominent speakers such as former Argentinian President Cristina Kirchner, former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, former Uruguayan President Jose Mujica, the leader of the Spanish far-left Podemos party, Pablo Iglesias, and the leader of the far-left La France Insoumise party, Jean-Luc Melenchon, took place in Buenos Aires on November 19-23, the week before the G20 summit.

A number of unions, local and international anarchist groups, and far-left groups associated with former President Cristina Kirchner have announced their intention to hold protests against not only the G20 Summit itself, but also against the presence of International Monetary Fund (IMF) head Christine Lagarde, UK Prime Minister Theresa May, and US President Donald Trump. According to reports citing Argentinian security officials, at least 33 protests are planned to take place throughout Buenos Aires during the summit, with over 100 local and international groups participating. The exact time and location of many protests have not been disclosed as of the time of writing and other smaller or unannounced protests are expected to occur.

On November 14, two attempted pipe bomb attacks were recorded in Buenos Aires. The first took place in the Belgrano neighborhood, where one individual was reportedly arrested after throwing a pipe bomb into the house of a judge who is currently investigating former President Cristina Kirchner in a number of high-profile corruption cases. Authorities reportedly defused it shortly afterward. The second attempt took place on the same day in the Recoleta neighborhood cemetery, where two individuals were wounded and subsequently arrested when a pipe bomb they were placing in the mausoleum of a controversial historical figure exploded unintentionally.

On November 15, ten individuals were arrested in a squatter house used by anarchists in Pavon Street, San Cristobal neighborhood over the November 14 attempted pipe bomb attacks.


Argentinian political landscape in the run-up to the G20 summit

The 2018 Buenos Aires G20 summit comes amid a marked deterioration in the economic situation in Argentina over the last six months, partly due to a costly drought in the country’s farm belt and a sharp increase in the price of financing for emerging countries, whose economies have some characteristics of a developed economy, but do not satisfy all of the standards. This situation has fostered a significant devaluation of the Argentinian Peso, which has become one of the world’s worst-performing currencies in 2018. This situation, in turn, exacerbated the country’s inflation, which is expected to reach a rate of 45 percent in 2018.

This financial situation has prompted President Macri to request a USD 57 billion standby loan from the IMF and accept the required cuts to public spending. As such, and considering that the IMF is widely disliked in the country, perceived by many to be one of the main causes of the last economic collapse of Argentina in 2001, President Macri’s approval rating fell from over 45 percent to 35 percent in November. With regards to these developments, social movements and labor unions, including Argentina’s largest union, the Confederacion General del Trabajo (CGT), have regularly taken to the streets to protest, with participation often reaching into the high thousands.

The G20 Summit and its symbolic importance for the anti-globalization movement

Violent protests by the anti-globalization movement, a catch-all social movement critical of free trade and consumer capitalism, have become a common feature of G20 & G7-8 summits since the mid-1990s. Multilateral summits are perceived by supporters of the anti-globalization movement as a powerful symbol of the shortcomings of the current system of global governance. These summits also provide a valuable opportunity for the movement’s supporters to make use of the public and international spotlight and bring further attention to their cause.

This situation is evidenced by the fact that widespread unrest has been witnessed in several multilateral summits, such as the 1999 World Trade Organization (WTO) Seattle summit, which is perceived as a pivotal moment in the formation and consolidation of the anti-globalization protest movement. Widespread unrest was also witnessed in the 2001 Genoa G8 Summit, the 2010 G20 Toronto summit, the 2011 G20 Cannes summit, and, most recently, the 2017 G20 Hamburg summit, which recorded a level of unrest rarely seen in modern Germany.

Assessments & Forecast

Expected disruptions in BA’s Belgrano, Nunez, Palermo, Puerto Madero, and Retiro neighborhoods

Considering that the Illia and Lugones highways, as well as Avenida Figueroa Alcorta, will all be closed to the general public, widespread traffic disruptions will likely occur in the Belgrano, Nunez, Palermo, and Retiro neighborhoods. Although in Belgrano and Nunez only areas adjacent to the closed roads will likely be affected by the summit, in Palermo, Recoleta, and Retiro more areas are likely to be affected besides those in the immediate vicinity of the highways and Avenida Figueroa Alcorta.

In Palermo, Recoleta, and Retiro, Avenida del Libertador is likely to be at least partially blocked to traffic given that is one of the major routes that link the Costal Salguero complex, where the summit will take place, with the hotel areas where several dignitaries will be staying. Moreover, in Palermo, Puerto Madero, Recoleta, and Retiro, locations in the vicinity of large upscale hotels are liable to be closed to both vehicular and foot traffic, given the likelihood of summit participants staying there. Additionally, considering that unconfirmed reports claim that a gala dinner with all of the attending leaders will take place at Teatro Colon, much of the downtown area of Buenos Aires is likely to be closed off to non-residents during the evening hours on November 30.

Taking into account that strikes disrupting commercial aviation have intensified in recent months, the possibility that a strike disrupting air trafficking control services takes place during the summit cannot be ruled out. On November 12, the head of the Asociacion de Pilotos de Lineas Aereas (APLA) union claimed that the union may carry out a 72-hour strike during the summit, leaving open the possibility that other unions in the air sector could join an APLA-led strike if the government ignores their requests over labor-related issues. Nonetheless, government sources have confirmed that, if this were the case, personnel from the Fuerza Aerea Argentina (FAA) could take control of air trafficking services if necessary. Aerolineas Argentinas workers affiliated to aviation workers’ unions announced their intent to hold a 24-hour strike on November 26, although over unrelated issues.

Violent protests expected throughout Buenos Aires, particularly in neighborhoods bordering restricted areas

Considering the expected number of protesting groups, coupled with their organizing capacity and sizeable support bases, particularly the unions and far-left groups associated with Cristina Kirchner, it is likely that the turnout for the anti-G20 protests will be in the mid-to-high tens of thousands for the two-day summit. Given that protestors will not be able to reach the premises of the summit, it is likely that the protests will take place in traditional points for such protests, including Plaza del Congresos, Plaza de Mayo, outside the Presidential Palace, and near the Obelisk. Protests are also likely to take place outside the Brazilian, German, UK, and US embassies.

If the areas in the vicinity of the aforementioned locales remain closed off to the general public, as unconfirmed reports suggest, these protests will likely be moved to nearby areas outside of the no-go zones. As such, neighboring districts that would have only experienced disruptions, such as Belgrano, Palermo, and parts of Recoleta, will likely see increased protests and unrest. Considering precedent of the previous G20 in Hamburg, coupled with the heightened anti-government sentiment within sectors of Argentinian society, there is a high potential for localized acts of violence, particularly vandalism against private businesses associated with Western multinationals.

Due to the high-profile nature of the event, if the protests turn violent, a crackdown by security forces is likely, including the use of tear gas and other forcible dispersal measures, such as rubber bullets. This assessment is underscored by the police reportedly forming a “special command center” to jointly monitor the events with the military and the government, placing all security forces directly under the command of the Ministry of Defense for the duration of the summit, something unseen since the return of democracy to the country in 1983.

There is also an elevated risk of protesters mounting roadblocks at the various entry points to the city that will not be closed off by authorities, such as 9 de Julio highway, 25 de Mayo highway, Avenida General Paz, Dellepiane highway, Perito Moreno highway, and Riccieri In such instances, security forces are liable to carry out mass arrests and forcibly disperse protesters.

In light of the previous IED attempts carried out by various anarchist elements, the potential remains that additional groups will attempt to detonate bombs during the summit. However, given the known capabilities of these groups and the unprecedented levels of security in the city, it is unlikely that any such explosions will affect the summit or cause significant damage or injury. Rather, the likelihood remains that they will either be neutralized prior to explosion or cause low-level superficial damage, akin to vandalism.

Given the number of foreign nationals expected to arrive in the city, coupled with the fact that Buenos Aires’ security forces will likely be overstretched, an uptick in opportunistic crime is liable during the summit and the following days. Tourist neighborhoods such as La Boca, Palermo Soho, the area around the Recoleta cemetery, and San Telmo are likely to be the main areas affected by such crime.

Effects of the G20 Summit on Argentina’s political landscape

Given that this will be one of the most high-profile multilateral events ever held in Argentina, if properly organized, the summit has the potential to improve President Macri’s public image, and further cement the perception of a structural change in Argentinian foreign policy since the Kirchner era. As such, the G20 summit has the potential to help position the country as a Western facing regional leader in South America, particularly considering the ongoing political situation in Brazil and the reputation of President-elect Jair Bolsonaro. Moreover, given that Argentina’s main current source of external financing is the IMF, and considering the clout that Western powers have over the IMF’s decision-making process, a properly organized G20 Summit could have a positive effect regarding Argentina’s political capital in future fiscal negotiations.

That said, the possibility remains that, if the protests get out of hand and security forces end up using excessive force, the summit could erode President Macri’s standing internationally and domestically. In light of the heightened political tensions between the government and the supporters of former President Cristina Kirchner, and the consistent deterioration of the economic situation throughout 2018, this potential scenario would almost certainly devolve into more violent demonstrations throughout December


Summit Recommendations

Travel to Buenos Aires can continue while maintaining vigilance for an increase in violent crime and protests between November 30-December 1. Avoid all protests given the potential for violence.

Avoid nonessential travel to the Belgrano, Palermo, Puerto Madero, Recoleta, and Retiro neighborhoods, as well as around the Brazilian, Germany, UK, and US Embassies in the event of protests.

Avoid nonessential travel via Avenida General Paz, Dellepiane Highway, Perito Moreno Highway, Riccieri Highway, 9 de Julio Highway, and 25 de Mayo Highway in the event of protests.

Allot for disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic in Belgrano, Palermo, Puerto Madero, Recoleta, and Retiro neighborhoods, due to the slated road closures and the possibility of security checkpoints.

General Recommendations

Foreign nationals and visitors are advised to increase vigilance against possible crime in light of the potential for attacks by criminal networks targeting foreigners and high profile individuals.

If confronted by muggers, it is advised to cooperate fully and not engage in any behavior that could raise tensions and lead to violence.

Travelers should avoid exposing jewelry or other items that may make them a target for theft. Store your valuables in your hotel room safe.

Refrain from divulging travel itinerary information to strangers.

As a general security precaution, avoid revealing to strangers your position or affiliation with foreign-based firms, as your response could attract a negative reaction from locals.

Take necessary precautions to ensure business continuity during the event, given that various government offices and other public services may experience disruptions.

Allot extra time for travel, due to likely traffic and public transportation congestion resulting from the summit. Seek alternative means of transportation.