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President Zuma resigns on February 14, new president Ramaphosa to face numerous challenges in upcoming months – South Africa Analysis

Current Situation

President Jacob Zuma held a press conference during the late hours of February 14 and announced his resignation with immediate effect. On February 15, Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa was sworn in as President of South Africa, replacing Zuma until the end of his mandate in 2019, after which he delivered the State of the Nation Address.

Immediately after Ramaphosa was elected by a parliamentary vote, the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) parties called for anticipatory elections to take place before the end of Ramaphosa’s term in 2019.

Zuma’s resignation came after the Executive Committee of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) convened on January 17-21, which was believed to begin discussing Zuma’s potential early departure from office. Subsequently, on February 4, the EFF requested that a vote of no-confidence be held against Zuma, which was then scheduled by parliament for February 22.

The ANC Executive Committee officially recalled Zuma on February 13 and insisted that he resigns from office. During this time, the no-confidence vote was pulled up and rescheduled for February 15.

President Zuma resigns on February 14, new president Ramaphosa to face numerous challenges in upcoming months - South Africa Analysis | MAX Security

Background

Jacob Zuma was elected President of South Africa in 2009 and has been a controversial political figure for much of his tenure, particularly due to numerous allegations of corruption. This has led to 783 charges of corruption to be filed against him, and additionally gave rise to the “State of Capture” investigation that focused on the corrupt relationship between Zuma’s government and the powerful Gupta family. Following repeated attempts to hinder the investigation, Zuma was forced by a court ruling in December 2017 to establish a commission tasked with further investigating the matter.

South Africa’s Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation, known as the “Hawks”, raided the Gupta private residence in Saxonwold, a Johannesburg suburb, during the morning hours of February 14, and arrested Atul Gupta. The arrest was made in relation to accusations of the misappropriation of funds allocated to the Estina farm in Free State.

Although a no-confidence motion against Zuma failed in August 2017, he faced another test with the ANC elections for new party leadership in December 2017. Then-Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa competed against Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Zuma’s ex-wife, whose candidacy was perceived by many as a protection against any legal proceedings against him. However, Ramaphosa was elected to be ANC president by a slim margin on December 18.

Since his election as ANC president, Ramaphosa has repeatedly vowed to fight corruption. One notable and immediate example was his dismissal of state-owned electricity company ESKOM’s board of directors, as it was marred by numerous accusations of corruption. Ramaphosa had also publicly come out come out strongly in favor of the “state capture” investigation.

Assessments & Forecast

Ramaphosa to focus on unifying divided ANC party ahead of 2019 presidential elections

Zuma’s resignation as president of South Africa is the culmination of a period of political instability in the country since Ramaphosa was elected the president of the ANC in December and began his public battle against corruption, seen as directly confronting Zuma and his legacy. Given that a no-confidence vote had been scheduled to take place on February 22, and then expedited to February 15, Zuma likely resigned preemptively in order to avoid the humiliation of facing the vote, with his own party voting against him in alliance with the opposition. This serves to highlight the strength of South Africa’s democratic institutions, as Zuma had clearly struggled to remain in power even after Ramaphosa’s party victory, but nevertheless stepped down in recognition of parliament’s right to dismiss the president with a no-confidence vote.

One of the main challenge faced by President Ramaphosa is of a political nature, as the ANC remains deeply divided. The uncertainty that surrounded Zuma’s fate during the days preceding his resignation likely resulted from disagreement on the subject within the party. Zuma has continued to enjoy significant support within the ANC despite the allegations against him.
FORECAST: As such, Ramaphosa will face the task of restoring unity among the divided party. This will be particularly difficult as he will concurrently attempt to purge the party from corruption, a move that risks further entrenching of the existing rifts within the ANC. Additionally, while Ramaphosa will deploy extensive efforts to unify the party, there nonetheless remains a possibility that Zuma’s supporters will leave the ANC in order to form their own political faction supporting the former president. Zuma clearly stated during his resignation speech that he intends to remain involved in the country’s political affairs as an active member of the ANC. That being said, given that the “state capture” investigation is ongoing, with a high likelihood that it will result in a conviction and possible jail time for Zuma, his involvement in the political life of the country remains unlikely in the long term, and his supporters will likely lose interest in his leadership.

The need for unity among the ANC is particularly relevant to the upcoming general elections slated for 2019, as these will certainly constitute a test for Ramaphosa. This is especially highlighted by the fact that, during the Zuma era, the ANC significantly lost support among its base due to the criticism surrounding Zuma’s political actions and implication in corruption. This translated into poor results during the 2016 municipal elections, as the ANC lost control of a number of municipalities including Johannesburg and Pretoria.
FORECAST: In light of this upcoming electoral test, Ramaphosa will need to strengthen the ANC’s base of support in order to avoid a situation in which the party would lose its absolute majority in Parliament, a first in post-Apartheid South Africa. That being said, Zuma’s resignation will likely help to revive the historical tripartite alliance between the ANC and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) and the South Africa Communist Party (SACP), as the two substantially criticized the former president and raised Zuma’s departure as a precondition to continue the alliance. With this in mind, and the precondition being fulfilled, it is likely that the tripartite alliance will re-emerge, thus consolidating the party’s hegemony over the South African political landscape.

FORECAST: Furthermore, there remains a possibility of anticipatory elections, as demanded by the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) parties. While Ramaphosa may decide to proceed accordingly in order to rapidly strengthen his power with a popular vote in his favor, he will likely wait for the guarantee that the ANC undividedly support his leadership. Regardless, given that general elections are slated for 2019, the time prior to the next popular vote will remain relatively short in either scenario, and the anticipatory elections would likely have a low impact on Ramaphosa’s political actions.

FORECAST: Over the coming months, Ramaphosa will likely focus his political efforts on overcoming the internal rifts within the ANC in order to consolidate his power. He will likely need the party’s full backing to move forward with necessary economic reforms and a unified ANC will additionally be key to his success in the 2019 general elections. While the continuation of the legal proceedings against Zuma represent a focal point for tensions within the party as the ex-president still retains some support, the perception of Ramaphosa as a leader who fulfills his promises regarding addressing corruption will likely bolster his position as a whole, particularly as it will help to revive the tripartite alliance. As a result, Ramaphosa’s accession as president will be a broadly stabilizing force within South Africa’s political landscape, which will likewise enable his efforts to increase the country’s economic stability.

Ramaphosa to focus on reviving stagnant economy, with risk of spurring protests

As the new president of South Africa, Ramaphosa will face a variety of challenges, with economic concerns likely to be the main priority. The country has suffered from a protracted economic crisis, with unemployment now at 27 percent and its debt downgraded to “junk” status by the main credit rating agencies.
FORECAST: Thus Ramaphosa will likely seek to prioritize the economic renewal of the country and attempt to restore trust among international financial institutions and investors. One focus for this effort will be to tackle the deep difficulties faced by state-owned companies after years of inefficiency and corruption, and Ramaphosa already began working in this direction when he fired ESKOM’s board of directors and will likely force the company to be more transparent, something that is expected to be applied to other troubled state-owned companies. Alongside the broadly positive view of Ramaphosa by international economic actors, who perceive him to be a more pragmatic and fiscally responsible leader due to his business experience, these developments will likely bolster investor confidence and South Africa will be regarded as less financially risky.

Beyond addressing the economic fallout of corruption within the government, Ramaphosa has repeatedly pledged to make fighting corruption a priority as a leader. This objective had clearly underpinned much of the pressure that led to Zuma’s resignation, and the pursuit of the high-profile allegations also materialized in the arrest of one of the Guptas, the family implicated in the “state capture” scandal. Ramaphosa’s position is regarded in contrast from Zuma’s, as he is perceived as more morally upstanding and has made his own personal fortune in business, which is seen to make him immune from personal corruption. FORECAST: Given his public commitment, as well as its relevance to renewing the economy, Ramaphosa will likely favor a rapid pursuit of the “state capture” investigations, which will likely result in Zuma and the Guptas’ criminal conviction. In this matter, Ramaphosa is slated to appoint a new national director of public prosecutions, tasked with initiating criminal proceedings on behalf of the state, which will then impact the “state capture” prosecution. At the same time, Ramaphosa will likely continue to purge the ANC and dismiss other members if they emerge to be linked to corruption scandals in efforts to restore trust in the ANC as well as the South African government.

In order to further revive the country’s economy, Ramaphosa may be forced to retract several promises made by Zuma regarding free higher education, which is a highly popular measure that cannot be realistically implemented by the government given its troubled financial state.
FORECAST: Reversing this promise will likely be controversial and could cause large-scale protests in and around university campuses, given that the “Fees Must Fall” issue has triggered large waves of protests over the past several years. This may come alongside other austerity measures that the government could be forced to take to improve its fiscal situation. This, in turn, would spur an intensification of similar protests. Given the country’s active protest culture regarding socioeconomic conditions, austerity measures would likely catalyze the South Africa’s major unions and opposition parties to organize demonstrations, often in Pretoria, Johannesburg, and Cape Town, though as is common, these will largely be disruptive rather than unruly. As a whole, this would translate into a somewhat more volatile landscape in the short term. However, Ramaphosa will likely pass expected economic reforms and, should he translate this into tangible improvement of the economy, the pace of protests will ultimately decline.

FORECAST: Ramaphosa’s primary focus over the coming months will likely be the improvement of the economy to overcome the effects of years of corruption and neglect. Given his early steps to fire ESKOM’s board of directors, as well as the positive perception of his fiscal acumen, his accession to power will likely help to create a more favorable environment to rejuvenate the South African economy and invite further investment. However, more responsible economic policies will likely require some austerity measures that will raise the risk of civil unrest, though this will be an increase in the already active protest movements present in South Africa. Furthermore, any surge in protests will likely be relatively short in duration until Ramaphosa is able to translate new policies into an improving economy.

Recommendations

Travel to Johannesburg and Pretoria can continue while adhering to basic security precautions against common criminality.

We advise to remain cognizant for any update on protest to take place in the upcoming months and to maintain vigilance in the vicinity of their location given the risk for associated unrest.