The Jordanian regime has been growing increasingly concerned about the possible spillover effects of violence in Syria, especially since Jordan’s Jihadist-Salafist Sheikh Abu Muhammad Tahawi recently released a fatwa calling for jihad in Syria. In his fatwa, Tahawi stressed that Alawites and Shiites are currently the biggest threat to Sunnis, even more than the Israelis.
Fatwas of this sort, usually play on the sentiments harbored deep within historical sectarian feuds between the Sunni and the Shiite faiths. They also serve the purpose of mobilizing Sunni extremists in a bloody ‘Jihad’ against the other factions of Islam, which radical Salafists classify as “outsiders”.
According to media reports, Jordanian Jihadist-Salafists seem to have responded to Sheikh Tahawi’s call as a group of over 30 Jihadists tried to enter Syria a few weeks ago. All but seven, including Abu Anas Sahabi, an explosives specialist, were caught by Jordanian intelligence services. On April 15 a Jihadi-Salafi demonstration resulted in violent clashes with police, leaving dozens of wounded officers and numerous civilian casualties. In response, authorities cracked down on Salafists during a raid in al-Zarqa and other towns located near the Syrian border. Approximately 147 individuals were arrested by Jordanian authorities and charged with terrorist activities.
In early June, authorities arrested two additional jihadists who were carrying machine guns and other firearms in the northern region as they were trying to cross the border and join other jihadist groups already fighting in Syria [fulfilling their Jihad missions]. Therefore, joining the fight against the regime in Syria stems from a ‘religious duty’ in the context of a holy war against a sect rather than for liberation or reform. Hence, what applies in Syria can be easily deployed in Jordan when the right time looms, as precedence shows when in 2005 Jihadist-Salafists under the leadership of Abu Mussaab al-Zarqawi organized a series of suicide bombings in several hotels around the capital, Amman, killing 60 people and wounding dozens.
Many of the country’s politicians, senior security officials and influential journalists do not hesitate to urge the government to disassociate itself from the Syrian opposition and maintain a low profile policy towards the events in the neighboring country. That is mainly due to their concern over the Kingdom’s fragile stability, which might be shaken by a possible deterioration of the regime in Damascus. That said, the Jordanian authorities seem to be afraid of any support that may be granted to the overwhelmingly Islamist opposition fighting Assad, which could draw a harsh response by the Syrian government. The security apparatus, which is said to have been favoring the current regime in Syria for fear that a change in the neighboring country would embolden the Kingdom’s Islamists and undermine the Monarchy, have reportedly tightened the monitoring of ‘refugee activists’ who support the Syrian opposition, and deported more than a 50 of them in the month of May.
Moreover, it is estimated that the Monarchy is seeking to avoid the worst case scenario in Syria, which sees the replacement of Assad’s regime by the Muslim Brotherhood. In case such a scenario materializes, its reverberations will be significantly felt in Amman as the wave of popular uprisings that is sweeping through the region have brought Islamists to power in countries hit by the so-called “Arab Spring”. Therefore, Jordan’s Islamists who are riding the wave by increasing anti-establishment demonstrations across the Kingdom, will see an unwavering opportunity to tip the political status-quo in their favor if their kinsmen manage to topple the secular regime in Syria.
These assessments are reinforced by the change of heart among Jordan’s top officials, including the King, who called upon President Assad to step down months ago. The King, however, readjusted his stances recently urging for a political solution to end the ongoing crisis. According to Jordanian sources, the intensive debate within the Policy Board chaired by the King himself and includes the leaders of the Royal Court, army, intelligence services, and the government, is focused on the possible spillover of violence from Syria. Such a spillover could potentially manifest through political assassinations targeting Syrian opposition activists, car bombs in Jordan’s cities, and eventually the destruction of the country’s economy which is highly dependent on trade with and through Syria.
To sum it up, Jordan is expected to follow in the steps of Syria’s other neighboring countries, Lebanon and Iraq, who chose to distance themselves from the conflict to avoid the political, economic, as well as the security repercussions that might befall them had they favored the anti-regime movement in Syria. That is likely to be witnessed through the tightening of security along the Kingdom’s borders with Syria, and the restriction of the activities of Syrian opposition elements, or Salafists.
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