MAX Intelligence: Trump’s 2025 Immigration Crackdown

Executive Summary

• The President Donald Trump-led administration is continuing efforts to tighten immigration provisions on grounds of national security, which can negatively affect legal and undocumented noncitizens for non-compliance in varying degrees.

• Foreign students and university faculty members will continue to be the focus of heightened immigration scrutiny, aimed at mitigating potential risks associated with anti-US or antisemitic hate crimes and disruptive protest activity.

• Amid this strengthening of immigration policies, which is also being used as a tool for foreign diplomacy, foreign travelers, including government officials from countries of security or diplomatic concerns, may also be subjected to targeted and discretionary travel restrictions.

• Foreign nationals operating in the US or intending to travel to the US are advised to ensure that all travel documents, including passports and visas, are valid and compliant with entry procedures.

Introduction

1. Since the inauguration on January 20, the President Donald Trump-led administration has advanced several policy changes across various sectors in line with the “America First” agenda, prioritizing national interests on the political, security, diplomatic, and economic fronts through a non-interventionist and protectionist approach. Among the various sectors recording these policy changes, the administration’s overall policy positioning toward border security and immigration has been prominent, aligning with Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign agenda, with the issue increasingly being among the top voter concerns across partisan lines. Immigration-related policy initiatives under the America First framework have been directed towards strengthening national security and protecting domestic jobs. This has manifested in the strengthening of the border and mass deportations of undocumented migrants along with enhancing of the vetting immigration vetting procedures both at the port of entry and within the country.

2. The tough-on-immigration policies carry the potential to increasingly impact all categories of non-citizen residents or visa applicants in varying degrees on grounds of threat to national security, views perceived to be extremist, gaps in documentation, or criminal offenses. That said, there have been persistent legal challenges and operational constraints faced by the authorities in the implementation of these policies, thus altering the pace and scope of certain policies on a case-by-case basis. However, despite these challenges, the reliance on executive presidential orders for the subject will likely ensure the continuation of immigration policies through Trump’s end of term in January 2029.

Assessments & Forecast

Steady progress with increased deportations of undocumented immigrants, subdued asylum programs to continue

1. Increased border security enforcement through additional military deployment, coordination from allied countries in the Americas such as El Salvador, Guatemala, and toughened policy posturing has significantly reduced the scale of US-bound land border crossings. The decline in border crossings complements mass deportations carried out through raids and arrests of undocumented immigrants, with a yearly target set at one million arrests. With the average deportations so far reportedly remaining below the set target, the slower pace is partly because of falling border crossings. At least 7,181 apprehensions were reported at the southwestern border with Mexico in March, a 95 percent decrease from March 2024 and the lowest monthly number since at least 2000. The figure demonstrates a possible decrease in the intentions of undocumented migrants seeking to cross into the US in light of the bolstered anti-immigration measures overall, along with the enhanced border security.

2. Such sentiments are further heightened as the administration has also ended or paused several asylum initiatives undertaken by the former President Joe Biden-led administration. This includes terminating the Central American Minors program, pausing the Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela parole program, and closing Safe Mobility Offices in Latin America. This has also included the revoking of parole and work authorization for about 985,000 migrants residing in the country, with exemptions for parolees under the Uniting for Ukraine and Operation Allies Welcome programs and restricting Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for nationals of Venezuela, Haiti, Afghanistan, and Cameroon, with ongoing court challenges.

3. As the Trump administration steadily continues to further streamline identification verification procedures, it is also attempting to enhance Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) logistical capabilities via an expected budget boost from the Republican-majority Congress. FORECAST: Thus, the scale of interior ICE enforcement is liable to increase over the coming months. Meanwhile, the shifting focus of the US Refugee Admissions Program, from humanitarian grounds toward a framework centered on national security, resident asylum seekers from countries perceived to be adversarial or unaligned with geopolitical agendas will likely face application rejections and potentially deportations.

4. Given these circumstances, there is increasing potential for these ongoing measures against undocumented immigrants to negatively impact domestic businesses. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, in 2023, foreign-born workers, including the undocumented, accounted for 18.6 percent of the labor force, up from 15.6 percent in 2010. Thus, this rise showcases the increasingly integral role played by undocumented migrants in labor-intensive industries. Labor-intensive sectors are likely to be particularly impacted by reduced workforce availability because of the expected increase in revocations or non-renewal of work permits for certain undocumented residents. Furthermore, labor-reliant businesses may have to increasingly resort to temporary work visa programs, such as the H-2A Temporary Agricultural Worker program or the H-2B Temporary Non-Agricultural Workers visa, to offset shortages, mandating increased costs and human resources due to regulatory procedures. Additionally, the need for employer oversight on employment authorization procedures will increase for country-specific employees under TPS/ Humanitarian Parole scrutiny, with pending legal challenges.

5. On the same note, there is an increased likelihood of immigration-related worksite enforcement. This can manifest as more I-9 audits, which involve the verification of documentation of employment eligibility, as well as ICE onsite raids to detect undocumented workers. While the Biden administration had halted large-scale ICE worksite raids, ICE’s April 15 report indicates that 1,200 businesses have already been legally scrutinized, with over 1,000 workers arrested as part of worksite enforcement. ICE I-9 audits and consensual or surprise raids are liable to increase over the coming months and years, as immigration-related worksite investigations may take time because of potentially extensive legal groundwork. Entrepreneurs operating in labor-intensive sectors such as construction, hotels, restaurants, and cafes (HORECA), cleaning and maintenance services, child and elder-care services, agriculture, and manufacturing or food processing could face scrutiny. Given that small businesses generally have limited financial or legal resources and plausibly higher dependency on immigrant workers, they are more likely to remain vulnerable to penalties or surprise raids based on law enforcement or insider tips.

6. Potential labor shortages and enhanced due diligence processes due to strengthened immigration policies, along with revised tariffs, will likely shore up business costs. Sectors heavily reliant on a low-cost workforce and imported materials or equipment, like construction, agrobusinesses, or shipping, could be vulnerable to compounded operational challenges in the form of higher input costs, supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and project delays in the coming months. Given this impact, the Trump administration may look to relax temporary visa programs for laborers through increased intake caps on a sector-by-sector basis over the coming months to offset inflationary pressures on businesses and end consumers. This is reflected in Trump proposing on April 10 that undocumented immigrants employed in sectors such as agriculture and hospitality could self-deport and return legally with backing from employers. Overall, the focus of the federal authorities is going to remain on mitigating undocumented immigration through stricter immigration checks and border security measures. However, the Trump administration will look to expand legal channels for skilled labor and also for non-skilled labor for labor-intensive sectors to mitigate the economic impact of the deportation of undocumented migrants. Notwithstanding, as the policies develop and become operational, heightened uncertainty and tensions regarding immigration policies are expected to persist.

ICE rules on antisemitism, gender policy, stricter criminal background checks likely to have impact on all categories of noncitizens for non-compliance

1. Recent ICE arrests, social media monitoring, and longer detention of legal noncitizens align with the Trump administration’s “enhanced vetting” due to national security concerns. These measures have also included alignment with the administration’s conservative-leaning ideological policies. This has particularly included the strict adherence to updated gender policy of recognizing male and female as the only biological sexes. This is based on conservative perceptions on the subject, vested in societal and cultural threat perceptions driven by left-leaning views deemed extremist. Several countries, including Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Hungary, Germany, Portugal, Netherlands, Norway, Ireland, Spain, and the UK, have issued travel advisories for US-bound travel on the grounds of changes in gender policy and enhanced vetting in recent weeks and months.

2. Additionally, the enhanced vetting has also included social media monitoring of noncitizens for antisemitism in immigration processes, showcasing an effort to incorporate ideologically driven political filters into broader national security considerations. The monitoring for antisemitic social media footprint is driven by the threat perceptions motivated by pro-Palestinian, anti-US, and anti-Israel views amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. This is to detect left-wing radicalization, given the increased left-leaning student groups and anarchist networks’ involvement in anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian activism in the US. This is in addition to the monitoring of travelers for Islamist sympathizers, which is a continuation of a longstanding, bipartisan US security focus on jihadist-aligned threats.

3. While the new measures do not specify domestic extremist groups, stringent vetting for antisemitism or pro-Palestinian sentiments may potentially result in screenings for online or past support for US-based radical left-wing groups. This also effectively serves as a proxy for ideologically profiling because of an overlap with anti-Trump sentiment among such individuals. The likelihood of such inspection is higher for legal immigrants associated with educational institutions and research think tanks, including foreign students and faculty members. Individuals linked to academia or universities could be suspected of engaging in perceived anti-US or radical ideologies on public forums or protest activity.

4. Amid these circumstances, there have been growing concerns about anti-Trump views being included in online monitoring as part of enhanced immigration vetting procedures. This specifically came to the limelight when a French researcher was denied entry to the US in March. While authorities claimed the researcher had undisclosed confidential information in violation of a non-disclosure agreement, a French minister contrasted that with claims of the researcher being denied entry because of his Trump-critical text messages. That said, there have not been additional such cases since or before this incident. Vocal Trump criticism on online or offline platforms, without suspected exposure to extremist groups, disruptive activity, or hateful views, is unlikely to be a ground for visa revocations or lengthy detentions for international business travelers or tourists.

5. Regardless, the contrasting statements for the exact reason for denial of entry in this incident also showcase confusion and uncertainty experienced by both citizen and non-citizen travelers amid the implementation of these enhanced vetting procedures at the point of entry. There have been incidents of travelers claiming to be refused entry and detained without a proper indication of the problem with their documents by the authorities. This comes considering the authority of interpretation and judgment call enjoyed by the border security personnel engaging in the vetting of travelers. With these detentions lasting for several days and weeks, sometimes without adequate legal representation or support, there is apprehension and growing concerns among both citizen and non-citizen travelers regarding the uncertainty and ambiguity of the implementation of the enhanced immigration vetting procedures. This uncertainty also persists for visa holders under increased scrutiny during citizenship interviews and visa renewal appointments.



6. FORECAST: The “enhanced vetting,” potentially including social media screening of non-citizens at the point of entry, will technically subject all foreign travelers and residents, including green card applicants, green card holders, and non-immigrant travelers. Over 47,000 electronic devices were searched in 2024 out of 420 million visitors, compared to only about 8,503 in 2015 out of over 383 million international travelers. The surge can be broadly attributed to evolving threat perceptions associated with data and online activity due to increased technological advancements globally. While the absolute number still indicates that most international travelers remain unaffected by secondary device checks, the overall scale will continue to rise.

7. FORECAST: Stricter immigration enforcement will persist for all immigrant or non-immigrant visa holders and applicants. This will likely place visa holders under increased scrutiny during citizenship interviews, visa renewal appointments, or return trips at points of entry, with recent cases indicating longer detention periods or arrests or visa revocations depending on the status and seriousness of background checks. Grounds of increased screenings may include mismatched visa records, pending criminal charges, concluded criminal records, as well as minor offenses involving driving under the influence (DUI), drug possession, and traffic violations. Additionally, transgender, or non-binary foreign travelers can face additional screening or questioning should their sex at birth not comply with US gender policy. Inconsistencies or refusal to comply may lead to delays, complications, or denial of a visa or entry. Furthermore, all foreign nationals, including B1 Business visitors or B2 Tourist visitors, associated with traditional threat actors such as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs), Domestic violent extremism (DVE) categories, or returning from countries classified by the US State Department as “Level 4: Do Not Travel”, are more likely to face device searches, intensified questioning, and extended processing times.

8. Amid the ongoing increased immigration scrutiny for all non-citizens and the uncertainty surrounding the situation, various sectors have bolstered legal procedures and increased internal background checks for employed foreign nationals. This is specifically relevant for academia and university campuses for foreign students or faculty members to flag immigration-related gaps as per revised regulations. FORECAST: Any potential gap could result in regular visits by ICE to university campuses with or without prior notice, depending on the perceived seriousness of the case. Furthermore, such instances of ICE visits, which can particularly involve pro-Palestinian student activists, could result in increased anti-Trump protests by pro-Palestinian or left-leaning university students on campus or in respective cities in the near term. Such protests carry the potential for scuffles with police, as seen after the Algerian student Mahmoud Khalil’s arrest in New York City, NY on March 8. Beyond immigration-related inspections, non-compliant universities or campuses deemed to promote antisemitism are likely to face increased federal oversight or cuts in federal funding, as seen with a letter by the Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights to 60 universities on March 10.

9. ICE-led scrutiny on the Student and Exchange Visitor Information Systems (SEVIS), a database to monitor nonimmigrant students and exchange visitors, is expected to remain heightened. Reports indicate that SEVIS records of over 4,700 international students were terminated since January 20, largely on the grounds of minor infractions, pro-Palestinian activism, or non-compliance with visa terms. The federal government reinstated SEVIS records on April 25 for those who did not have their visas revoked following legal challenges. However, the scope and intensity of the ICE review is expected to increase. A recent ICE memo stated that SEVIS records can now be terminated for failure to report employment while on Optional Practical Training, exceeding unemployment limits, withdrawal from school, and failure to comply with visa terms. Foreign students previously had the right to due process before losing legal status on grounds of loss of work authorization, criminal charges, or non-compliance in general. However, the memo now allows status termination solely on visa revocation.

10. Additionally, enhanced immigration checks will likely elicit reinforced precautionary employee compliance protocols for foreign nationals in knowledge-intensive private sectors, including technology, financial services, consulting, engineering, and healthcare. Trump has adopted a more positive stance towards H-1B visas. Trump’s increased focus on reshoring manufacturing and increasing global competitiveness of US-based businesses will likely increase demand for skilled professionals, including foreign workers. This will possibly limit the likelihood of a stricter crackdown against it. However, uncertainty over the course of the program may persist, as the potential for redefined and higher benchmarks for ‘specialized knowledge’ will remain in the coming months.

Escalations in diplomatic tensions, explicit critique of Trump administration may subject foreign government officials to selective, discretionary visa restrictions

1. Trump’s policy agenda toward immigration serves as an additional, selective tool to assert its national and geopolitical interests amid Washington’s recalibrations on different fronts, be it trade realignments, the conflict in the Middle East, growing tensions with China, or shifting regional dynamics in the Americas. Foreign government officials, including diplomats, ministers, and heads of State, may encounter delayed visa processing, sudden rejections, or revocations if their criticism of Trump is perceived as explicit. For example, Colombian President Gustavo Petro claimed on April 22 that the US officials revoked his US visa while simultaneously making personal remarks against Trump, which was denied by diplomatic sources. This followed a brief January US travel ban for Colombian officials and immediate family members after Petro refused to accept US-sent deportation flights to Colombia, but when he agreed on the same day, Washington’s retaliatory measures were lifted.

2. Separately, South Africa’s ambassador to the US was declared persona non grata on March 14 after he critiqued in a private webinar held that Trump was “mobilizing a supremacism” and projecting “white victimhood as a dog whistle”. This came amid deteriorating bilateral diplomatic relations between the US and South Africa over the latter’s non-alignment with Washington’s geopolitical stances. Additionally, with Trump recently offering asylum to ethnic minority Afrikaners, particularly worsened diplomatic ties. These incidents indicate Washington’s increased geopolitical signaling efforts aimed at flagging officials suspected of being overtly critical of Trump or his policies. This approach, which does not appear to follow a formalized strategy, seems to be implemented on an ad hoc basis during bilateral diplomatic escalations. This includes an additional layer of scrutiny involving a critique of the Trump administration to leverage domestic and foreign policy considerations.

3. FORECAST: Such measures are likely to be enforced along with traditional visa sanctions or visa restrictions, which were typically reserved for officials from long-standing adversarial nations like Cuba, Russia, and Iran, or foreign officials already under scrutiny for alleged corruption or criminal ties. Even in the absence of formal visa sanctions for corruption or criminal affiliations, foreign public officials suspected of such links may still face sudden visa revocations, unexpected rejections, or longer checks when seeking entry into the US. For instance, the Governor of Mexico’s Baja California state of the federal-ruling left-wing Movimiento Regeneracion Nacional Party (Morena), claimed that her US visa was revoked without reason on May 11. While US authorities declined to comment, March reports suggest the Mexican governor being allegedly blacklisted as a “narco-governor” for alleged links to narco-trafficking. The absence of an official reasoning despite allegations reflects Washington’s reliance on discretionary measures for visa scrutiny against all travelers, including foreign government officials, to project a strong posture against crime and national security risks.

4. Additionally, mirroring travel bans implemented during Trump’s first term, which affected certain African and Islamic countries, Cuba, North Korea, and Venezuela, the Trump administration is likely to consider similar restrictions, building on national security concerns laid out in the January 20-signed executive order. FORECAST: While increased immigration checks are likely to persist regardless of a designated travel ban for both foreign travelers and US nationals returning from high-risk countries, more stringent restrictions will likely be considered in the coming months. This can affect business travelers, public officials, tourists, legal noncitizens, dual citizens, as well as citizens intending to travel to or from certain countries, with the scope of restrictions expected to be contingent on country-designated risk categories.

5. Meanwhile, amid an increased geopolitical and trade friction between Beijing and Washington, the former has also recently advised Chinese travelers to the US to carefully assess the risks and exercise caution. Within this context, there is no blanket immigration-related restriction in place for Chinese travelers or green card applicants. However, Washington’s escalating diplomatic tensions with Beijing may heighten immigration-related inspection for certain Chinese travelers on a case-by-case basis on grounds of prevailing concerns over espionage activity and economic competition. This potential approach will build on existing measures, including the listing of certain Chinese companies, termed as “Chinese Military Companies,” for their alleged close ties to China’s military. Additionally, over 50 China-linked entities were added on March 26 to the export restriction list to deter the Chinese government’s advanced technology capabilities.

6. FORECAST: Given Washington’s long-standing skepticism over alleged Chinese espionage activity on US soil, coupled with the expected protracted bilateral tensions with Beijing over tariffs, heightened levels of screening of Chinese government-linked individuals is anticipated. This could affect different types of university students, private employees or consultants associated with Chinese companies already under scrutiny, Chinese-origin or Chinese citizens involved with sensitive technology, and civil society activists. While the screening process is expected to be heightened for Chinese citizens and Chinese-origin travelers, individuals of any nationality may also face similar checks for suspected links to the Chinese government. Scrutiny can manifest in the form of additional security checks at ports of entry and increased questioning and longer wait times for visa issuance and naturalization screenings. Additionally, suspected travelers could face electronic device searches to assess potential political affiliations at any stage of their travel or stay in the US.

Recommendations

For Individuals

1. Foreign travelers are advised to ensure that all travel documents, including passports and visas, are valid and up to date before departure, in order to prevent delays or complications at entry points.

2. Foreign travelers or legal noncitizens are further advised to be prepared for additional questioning or inspections, especially if carrying sensitive items. This is because Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers may conduct enhanced screenings based on factors such as background checks or prior travel patterns.

3. For travelers from Visa Waiver Program (VWP) countries, complete the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) application before departure. For non-VWP travelers, ensure the DS-160 or DS-260 form is completed for visa applications.

4. Cooperate fully with CBP agents. Arguing or refusing to comply may result in secondary inspection, device seizure, or denial of entry.

5. Secure electronic devices with strong passwords and minimize sensitive data, as CBP officers may inspect or confiscate devices upon entry. Store critical files in encrypted cloud environments. Do not carry sensitive data locally unless strictly necessary.

6. Prior to departure or during visa/ citizenship interviews, avoid storing content on devices or wearing attire that may be perceived as supportive expressing support for pro-Palestinian activism, Hezbollah, Hamas, Communism, or other groups and ideologies that can be perceived as extremist.

7. Travelers whose gender identity or gender marker differs from the one listed on their passport are advised to check the US State Department’s online FAQ and to verify the latest US policies on gender markers to ensure that documentation complies with current regulations to avoid complications at the border.
   Transgender travelers are also advised to contact the US consular authorities in their respective countries of origin, to verify US entry requirements, particularly those related to passport gender markers.

For Businesses

1. Ensure that foreign-origin employees possess the necessary immigration documentation and supporting evidence, as needed, for residing in, traveling to, or returning to the US.

2. Implement a communication protocol for employees to notify the legal and HR departments of upcoming travel plans and assign a dedicated point of contact for support during travel.

3. Develop a company policy outlining best practices for handling sensitive data on electronic devices when traveling internationally or for foreign employees with non-binary gender identity.

4. Prepare employees returning from high-risk countries and allot for extra time for potential heightened scrutiny during immigration checks.

5. Employers, particularly in labor-intensive industries reliant on immigrant workers, are advised to conduct an internal I-9 audit detect errors to reduce potential liability related to undocumented immigration and work permit.

6. Designate an ICE Response Team and establish a contact list to be deployed in the event of any ICE enforcement actions.

7. Travel with “clean” devices: Employees are often issued temporary travel laptops or phones that contain no sensitive data locally. Before travel, employees can be advised to back up all necessary files to secure company servers or cloud storage, to then remove confidential files from the device.

8. Use encrypted cloud storage: Instead of carrying large amounts of corporate data, employees are advised to upload data to encrypted cloud repositories that they can access remotely as needed. According to reports, CBP policy currently prohibits officers from accessing data solely stored in the cloud.

9. Minimize or delete suspicious social media footprint: Prior to travel, travelers are advised to clear or minimize social media activity that could be deemed as an indirect/direct threat to US national security.

10. Consider alternative devices if necessary: In high-risk scenarios, employees can use “burner” phones (cheap disposable phones) or loaner laptops for travel. This is because such devices are clean of any data except what is needed for the trip and can be wiped or discarded after.

11. Following any device inspection, employees are advised to notify their company’s security or IT department to assess potential exposure risks and take appropriate follow-up measures.