Category: Intelligence

28 May 2024

Far-right militancy to increase in form of cells and lone-wolves – Europe Special Report

A series of attacks and arrests linked to far-right individuals in Europe underscore the threat as fast becoming the primary militant issue.

28 May 2024

Militancy along Burkina Faso’s southern borders increases possibility of spread into Benin, Togo, Ghana, Ivory Coast – West Africa Special Analysis

The rapid proliferation of militancy across Burkina Faso to its southern borders have created fears of spillover, further heightened by a warning by Burkinabe authorities to Ghana, Togo, and Benin.

28 May 2024

Essebsi’s death to weaken Nidaa Tounes party, strengthen opposition in upcoming parliamentary elections – Tunisia Analysis

On July 25, President Beji Caid Essebsi passed away. His death is likely to further exacerbate the political polarization within Nidaa Tounes, the current ruling party, and weaken electoral support for the party in the upcoming elections.

28 May 2024

El Paso Shooting – Domestic far-right shooters become primary militant threat as online communities act as hubs for radicalization, catalyzing attacks – USA Analysis

Far-right online communities have increasingly shifted towards planning and calling for militant attacks, demonstrating the increased threat from such forums.

28 May 2024

SAA deploying towards Aleppo Province’s Kobani, Manbij on October 13-14 following deal with SDF – Syria Situation Update

Executive Summary: On October 13, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) deployed its troops towards northern Syria in line with a reported agreement between the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The development highlights the SDF’s willingness to negotiate with the SAA to receive their support to counter the Turkish Operation “Spring of Peace”…

Transitional government attempts to revive economy, while challenges remain over opposition cohesion, military consolidation – Sudan Analysis

Sudan’s transitional government is likely to focus heavily on reviving the economy, though attempts to realign the budget is likely to face military pushback

28 May 2024

Eastern Mediterranean Special Report

28 May 2024

BJP, PM Modi elected back to power after May 23 vote count; no imminent threat to political stability – India Analysis

The National Democratic Alliance returned to power for a second consecutive term after the Bharatiya Janata Party secured a single-party majority on May 23.

28 May 2024

Wave of anti-government protests highlighting growing disaffection with establishment parties may exacerbate political tensions – Balkans Analysis

Several countries in the Balkans have seen intense anti-government protest movements in recent months, exacerbating nationalist sentiments and political tensions.

28 May 2024

Bolstered international support for LNA Field Marshal Haftar amid ongoing hostilities in Tripoli likely to prolong conflict – Libya Analysis

International involvement in the Libyan conflict will facilitate the prolongation of fighting throughout the country, and specifically around Tripoli.