Several countries in the Balkans have seen intense anti-government protest movements in recent months, exacerbating nationalist sentiments and political tensions.
Category: Geopolitical Analysis
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of the Islamic State, openly appeared in a video for the first time in almost five years. The main objective of the video is to showcase to followers that al-Baghdadi is alive and still in command of the organization, and to rally his followers to increase their rate of activities.
Amendments to 14 articles within Egypt’s 2014 constitution were approved in a nationwide referendum, which was held between April 19-22. This development is highly notable as it will extend President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi’s presidential term from four to six years as well as allow him to seek re-election for a third term. This will allow the president to further entrench himself within the country’s political apparatus.
At least 310 people were killed and hundreds injured in multiple suicide bombings that occurred in Colombo, Negombo, and Batticaloa on April 21. The attacks appear to be carried out by radicalized locals, with possible transnational jihadist links.
The security situation in Libya is likely to significantly deteriorate over the coming months. As the LNA’s operation becomes protracted, as a result of strong defensive measures adopted by GNA-linked forces, it will be compelled to divert troops from other parts of Libya, allowing IS to increase its activity.
Since September 2018, there has been a dramatic increase in militant attacks in Burkina Faso, now affecting 11 of the 13 regions. Militancy is expected to continue spreading throughout the rural areas of the country as jihadists grow entrenched in the north and east and mobilize toward the west and south.
On January 10, the National Assembly declared Juan Guaido, the recently-elected president of the body, the country’s interim President. A subsequent wave of anti-government protests left at least 50 killed and over a thousand arrested.
Control over territory in Libya is contested between the HoR, the GNA, and tribal militias. As neither of these entities are willing to compromise upon their interests, the current political landscape in Libya will remain unstable, and the security environment in Libya will remain extremely volatile in the foreseeable future.