The security situation in Libya is likely to significantly deteriorate over the coming months. As the LNA’s operation becomes protracted, as a result of strong defensive measures adopted by GNA-linked forces, it will be compelled to divert troops from other parts of Libya, allowing IS to increase its activity.
Category: Geopolitical Analysis
Since September 2018, there has been a dramatic increase in militant attacks in Burkina Faso, now affecting 11 of the 13 regions. Militancy is expected to continue spreading throughout the rural areas of the country as jihadists grow entrenched in the north and east and mobilize toward the west and south.
On January 10, the National Assembly declared Juan Guaido, the recently-elected president of the body, the country’s interim President. A subsequent wave of anti-government protests left at least 50 killed and over a thousand arrested.
Control over territory in Libya is contested between the HoR, the GNA, and tribal militias. As neither of these entities are willing to compromise upon their interests, the current political landscape in Libya will remain unstable, and the security environment in Libya will remain extremely volatile in the foreseeable future.
Qatar’s decision to withdraw from OPEC stems from its inability to influence decisions within the organization due to relatively low output as well as its interest in breaking away from Saudi influence.
In recent months, the Trump administration took several economic and diplomatic measures against the Palestinian Authority (PA), including cutting funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine (UNRWA), as well as closing the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) mission in Washington, D.C.
The trial and arrest of musician-turned-politician Robert Kyagulanyi, better known as Bobi Wine, further shines a light on the Ugandan government’s continued repressive policies towards dissenters. However, the Bobi Wine arrest and subsequent protests suggest a change compared to other protests against President Yoweri Museveni.