MAX Intelligence: Serbia’s Escalating Civil Unrest

Executive Summary

• Student groups are carrying out a nationwide civil disobedience campaign and work stoppage after President Aleksandar Vucic denied their demand for snap parliamentary elections and his resignation.

• The campaign is part of a wider anti-government protest movement that began in November 2024 in response to a roof collapse incident in Novi Sad.

• The use of physical barricades during protests and attacks against the police indicate that protesters are resorting to increasingly violent tactics, thereby posing a higher risk of injuries and associated disruptions.

• Protests are expected to continue in the coming weeks and will carry an elevated risk of unrest, including clashes with police and targeted violence by pro-government actors, such as physical assault and vehicle ramming.

• Vucic is unlikely to call snap elections given that approval ratings for the ruling populist SNS party, which he leads, have declined heavily, making early elections a politically risky move that could result in substantial electoral losses for SNS.

• In the medium term, the protest campaign is liable to lose momentum due to government crackdown, protest fatigue, and arrests of protest organizers.

• Travel to Serbia may continue while remaining cognizant of updates regarding the ongoing protest movement and avoiding nonessential travel in the vicinity of all anti-government protests due to the elevated risk of violence.

Current Situation

• Multiple large-scale demonstrations have been organized across Serbia since late June to demand early parliamentary elections and the resignation of President Aleksandar Vucic, who also leads the ruling populist Srpska Napredna Stranka (SNS) party.

• The demonstrations are part of a nationwide protest campaign organized by student groups since November 2024 to demand government accountability for a railway roof collapse incident in Novi Sad, which killed 15 people. The campaign peaked on March 15 when 325,000 people gathered in Belgrade to denounce government corruption.

• Recently, on June 28, 140,000 people carried out a protest march in Belgrade. Widespread unrest was recorded, with protesters throwing projectiles at police and officials responding with tear gas and stun grenades. About 100 protesters were arrested.

• Following this, student groups declared an indefinite campaign of civil disobedience from June 29 and multi-sector work stoppage from July 1. Multiple other protests, including road blockades, have since been held in at least 23 cities, with 117 protests held nationwide on July 1 alone. On July 4, student groups called for a “total blockade of Serbia due to police brutality”.

• Several security incidents have been recorded during these anti-government protests, including vehicular ramming. On June 30, a vehicle belonging to a staff member of the Honorary Consulate of Estonia in Serbia reportedly attempted to break through a blockade in Belgrade. Several individuals then came out of the vehicle and attacked nearby protesters.

• Separately, an individual was detained after he pulled out a gun on protesters blocking streets in Pancevo on June 29.

• On June 30, four police cars drove toward protesters without stopping while they were blocking a street in Belgrade. No injuries were reported after protesters rushed to the sidewalks.

• Opposition parties, such as the centrist Serbia Centre (SRCE) party, have also accused the government of using criminal groups to suppress protests, including on June 30 when individuals claiming to be police officials but donning masks and lacking official insignia, clashed with protesters outside the Faculty of Law building in Belgrade.

• President Vucic has refused to accept protesters’ demands, including their call for snap parliamentary elections and his resignation, and has described the protests as “terrorist attacks” and foreign-backed “coup” plots.

Assessments & Forecast

Increased use of disruptive tactics by protesters substantially increases risk of violence, disruptions

1. The nature of protests held in recent weeks indicates a shift toward more disruptive forms of protest tactics as compared to early 2025. This shift substantially increases the risk of violent escalations, injuries, and broader disruptions to public order and travel during these protests.

2. Protesting groups extensively used physical barricades made of metal fences and trash barrels during protests on June 29-30 for the first time since demonstrations began in 2024. The barricades were held at similar timings across at least 30 locations within Belgrade, as well as in 22 other cities, pointing to significant coordination amongst the organizers.

3. Additionally, although some protests witnessed unrest during the mass protests in early 2025, this was usually more “reactive” in nature, typically in response to police crackdown or attacks by pro-government actors. Majority of the protests, however, remained peaceful. In contrast, the current wave of protests has seen an increase in the scale at which participants resort to confrontational tactics even before police dispersal, including throwing objects at police, using pyrotechnics, and engaging in arson.

4. Although student groups blocked traffic by gathering in large numbers on streets in early 2025, recent protests have also seen protesters attempt to expand the scope of blockade targets to include other critical transportation infrastructure such as railway lines. For instance, on June 30, protesters entered railway tracks in Lazarevac, blocking services on the Belgrade-Bar line.

5. Moreover, unlike the associated strike actions held in early 2025, which were typically limited to a selected timeframe—often lasting 24 hours or a few days—the recent call for work stoppage and civil disobedience has been declared as indefinite in nature. This indicates a deliberate move toward more sustained disruption, aimed at maintaining prolonged pressure on authorities and signaling continued dissatisfaction with the government’s response to protester demands.

Anti-government protests expected to continue over coming weeks, to carry elevated risk of unrest

1. FORECAST: Given the call for civil disobedience and heightened sentiments over alleged police brutality during the recent protests, civil unrest is expected to persist in Serbia in the immediate to near term. Although protests are expected nationwide, the largest demonstrations are likely to remain concentrated in major urban cities, especially those with substantial student populations such as Belgrade, Novi Sad, Nis, Novi Pazar, Cacak, and Kragujevac. Belgrade is expected to remain the primary hotspot of protest actions due to its political significance. Indeed, of the 87 traffic blockades held nationwide on July 1, 68 blockades took place in Belgrade alone. Novi Sad is also expected to be a hotspot for protest activity, as the city holds symbolic value for protesters given that the railway station accident that initially triggered the protests took place in the city.

2. FORECAST: Civil disobedience is likely to take the form of blockades of major roads, bridges, and transportation infrastructure, including using physical barricades. Additionally, marches, demonstrations, and sit-ins near government buildings, central squares, campuses, and pro-government media outlets are likely to continue. Protests are also likely near police stations when protesters are detained and judicial buildings when detained protesters stand for trial.

3. FORECAST: Protest activity is expected to peak during weekends, coinciding with higher public availability for engagement in such actions. Turnouts during protests in major cities on weekends are likely to range from high thousands to mid-tens of thousands. That said, smaller demonstrations, especially walkouts or sit-ins at workplaces and educational institutions, are likely to continue during weekdays as well.

4. FORECAST: All anti-government protest actions are expected to carry an elevated risk of unrest. Protesters are likely to engage in violent tactics, including throwing projectiles at police, as well as vandalism and arson targeting SNS-related establishments and physical attacks on SNS-related individuals. Meanwhile, pro-government groups are likely to carry out counter-protests, as well as targeted attacks, including vehicular ramming, intimidation, and physical assaults. Such incidents will carry a high risk of causing injuries to bystanders nearby or journalists covering the protests.

5. FORECAST: Police authorities are liable to resort to the use of violent crowd dispersal methods, including the use of tear gas, baton charge, and mass arrests. The risk for authorities to resort to the use of more high-risk dispersal methods during larger protests also remains, such as the June 30 incident where police vehicles reportedly directly drove into crowds to disperse them or the March 15 incident when protesters claimed that the police used an illegal military-grade sonic weapon to disperse protesters.

6. FORECAST: In regard to the work stoppage, education and public sector employees are most likely to adhere to it, particularly public transport and utility employees who have existing employment-related grievances with the government. Associated disruptions to education and transportation services are anticipated over the coming weeks. However, judging by precedent and the lack of workers’ adherence to the work stoppage from other sectors, the potential for private sector employees to join the strike in large numbers is limited as of writing.

Vucic unlikely to call for snap elections, protest momentum liable to decline in medium term

1. FORECAST: Despite continued protests and protesters’ increased use of violence, President Vucic is unlikely to concede to protesters’ main demands, namely his resignation and the announcement of snap parliamentary elections in the near term. Vucic has publicly rejected all calls for early elections, including students’ “final ultimatum” to the government to dissolve the government by June 28.

2. While Vucic previously accepted calls for snap elections during mass anti-government protests in November 2023, that decision came at a time when his ruling SNS party was polling at approximately 45 percent and the protest momentum had significantly declined by the time elections were announced. In contrast, recent polling places support for the ruling government at only 26.9 percent and support for the students’ protest movement still remains very high among the general public. This creates a currently unfavorable political climate for Vucic to call early parliamentary elections, as elections under such conditions would carry a risk of significant electoral losses for the SNS.

3. FORECAST: Instead, Vucic is expected to continue government crackdown on protesters to quell the civil disobedience campaign. Besides police crackdown during protest activity, the government is also expected to continue imposing disproportionate regulatory and legal measures such as surveillance and pre-emptive detention of protest organizers. The government has also been accused of withholding salaries of university staff in recent months until regular classes resume—likely as a coercive tactic to pressure universities into discouraging student participation in the protest movement. Additionally, Vucic is likely to offer concessions on other non-political aspects of the students’ demands such as changes in the education system regulations or eventual release of detained protesters, in attempts to placate heightened anti-government sentiment.

4. FORECAST: This, combined with the arrests of prominent protest organizers and activists as well as an eventual protest fatigue or political apathy, indicates that the students are unlikely to be able to sustain high levels of mobilization over time. As such, even though large-scale protests are expected to continue in the coming weeks, the overall momentum of the protest campaign is liable to eventually decline in the medium term.

5. Indeed, although recent protests still drew sizable crowds, the overall turnout has already noticeably decreased compared to protests held in January-March 2025. For example, the largest protest in the past week gathered around 140,000 participants on June 28, whereas the largest protest in early 2025 drew approximately 325,000 attendees in Belgrade on March 15—much more than double the recent figure.

6. Additionally, the limited participation of workers from sectors beyond education and transport in the current work stoppage further underscores the movement’s challenges in sustaining support across industries that previously widely participated in the campaign, such as agriculture, medicine, law, and entertainment amongst others.

Recommendations

1. Those operating or residing in Serbia are advised to avoid nonessential travel near all anti-government protests due to the elevated potential for unrest in the form of physical attacks and clashes between protesters, police, and pro-government actors.

2. Allot for significant disruptions to travel near protests, as well as to public sector services in the education and transport sectors due to the work stoppage calls.

3. Carry identity cards due to the potential for security checks near protests.

4. Monitor local media sites, as well as social media accounts associated with student groups, to be aware of upcoming protests and plan accordingly.

5. In case of a declared protest near asset locations, it is advisable to consider remote work for that day or duration.

6. Avoid discussing the political situation, showing support for student protests, or using anti-government rhetoric in public or on social media.

7. For further questions and risk assessments, please contact intel@max-security.com