Inside Operation Rising Lion and What the Israel-Iran Ceasefire Really Means

Iran had 60 days to reach a nuclear agreement with the United States.

On June 13, 2025 (day 61), Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, marking one of its most extensive aerial campaigns in recent years. The move followed stalled U.S.–Iran talks and came just after the IAEA reported Iran was in breach of its non-proliferation obligations — a finding that, in Jerusalem’s eyes, gave it the international legitimacy it needed to act.

The decision was also influenced by regional dynamics following the Israel–Hamas conflict, which had shifted geopolitical momentum in Israel’s favor and weakened Iran’s position.

Israeli Airstrikes Disable Core Capabilities

Over the course of the operation, Israeli forces executed approximately 2,000 airstrikes. The IDF effectively established air superiority over Iranian territory and systematically degraded nuclear infrastructure and ballistic missile platforms. Iran’s ability to launch retaliatory strikes diminished steadily, reflected in fewer missiles per barrage as the campaign progressed.

And despite threatening statements, Iran’s regional partners, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, did not engage directly, further reinforcing Israel’s deterrence position.

U.S. Joins Campaign with Bunker-Busting Strikes

On June 21–22, the United States entered the operation, targeting Iran’s nuclear sites in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. These strikes included the use of deep-penetration munitions capable of hitting hardened targets like Fordow, which Israel could not reach independently.

U.S. involvement added both operational capability and political weight. It enabled Israel to declare its objectives met and added pressure on Iran by signaling Washington’s alignment with Israeli strategy.

Ceasefire Halts Escalation, but Not the Risks

President Trump announced a ceasefire on June 24. For Iran, the pause offered a way to limit further damage to its critical infrastructure and preserve remaining capabilities. For Israel, it avoided a prolonged campaign that could have strained the economy and civilian morale, while preserving the strategic gains achieved.

While the ceasefire is likely to hold in the short term under U.S. pressure, some drivers of instability remain in place.

Nuclear Risk Not Fully Resolved

IAEA officials warned that Iran may be able to reconstitute enrichment activity within months. The country maintains a capable domestic scientific and engineering base, including the means to manufacture centrifuges and restart suspended programs. Both Israel and the U.S. are expected to maintain a proactive stance and respond swiftly to any signs of renewed nuclear activity.

Asymmetric Threats Likely to Grow

Even though the ceasefire is still in effect, Iran is expected to pursue indirect forms of retaliation. Covert attacks abroad, cyber activity, and efforts to destabilize Israel through the Israeli–Palestinian arena remain on the table. These tactics will allow Tehran to impose costs while avoiding direct confrontation and further U.S. involvement.

Looking Ahead

Whether the current ceasefire holds or unravels, it marks a shift in how Israel, Iran, and the U.S. approach the threat landscape. While a further immediate escalation may have been halted, strategic risks remain, and the next moves by all sides will shape regional dynamics well beyond this round of conflict.

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