Tag Archives: unrest

Protest movement to gain momentum and see increased unrest amid rising anti-government sentiment – Colombia Analysis

Executive Summary:

The ongoing protests against President Ivan Duque’s administration have seen hundreds of thousands participating in planned and spontaneous demonstrations in Bogota, Cali, Medellin, and other urban centers.

Protests are anticipated to continue and gradually gain momentum as the national dialogue between the protesters and the administration takes place over the coming weeks, with violent unrest remaining highly likely.

The government is liable to make significant concessions in terms of policy and personnel changes to stem growing unrest and calls for President Duque to step down.

Travelers are advised to avoid nonessential travel to Bogota, Cali, Medellin, and other urban centers over the coming weeks due to the high potential for unrest.

MAX has strong on-ground capabilities in Central and South America, for support or evacuation. Please contact us at [email protected] or +44 20-3540-0434.

Please be advised:

Following nationwide mass protests against President Ivan Duque that began on November 21 leaving three dead and 272 injured on the day, the mayor of Bogota declared a curfew for the city until November 23. The protests were called for by several groups, including labor unions, LGBT activists, pensioners, healthcare workers, education workers, students, and indigeneous groups against the administration’s policies.

Apart from planned demonstrations, several spontaneous rallies by citizens banging pots and pans, a traditional Latin American form of protest called ‘cacerolazo’, have also been recorded.

On November 21, the Ministry of the Interior reportedly issued a decree to enact increased security measures during the day, including closing international borders and banning the carrying of firearms.

Flight cancelations were reported at Bogota’s El Dorado International Airport (BOG) until November 23 and more than half of the 138 Transmilenio bus stations have been destroyed amid the unrest. Thousands continue to gather at President Duque’s private residence in Usaquen, chanting anti-government slogans.

On November 23, deployed riot police from the Escuadron Movil Antidisturbios (ESMAD) shot an 18-year old student, leaving him in critical condition with life changing injuries. Subsequent protests took on an increasingly violent tone, prompting the Attorney General to open an investigation into the case.

Reports from November 24 indicate that nearly 300 officers have been injured since the start of the violent protests. Separately, a bomb attack was recorded at a police station in Santander de Quilichao, Cauca on November 23 which left three officers dead, although no group has officially claimed responsibility for the attack.

President Duque announced the beginning of a national dialogue in Colombia on November 24 “to strengthen the social agenda in the country”. Mayors and elected governors from across the country will take place in the dialogue, as well as labor union leaders.

Assessments & Forecast

Protests to continue, increase in intensity over coming weeks

Against the backdrop of ongoing social protest movements across Latin America, such as in Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, the Colombian protests are liable to gradually gain momentum and continue calling for President Duque’s resignation. The protests in Bogota are expected to be the most well-attended, with turnouts in the hundreds of thousands, and mid-to-high tens of thousands anticipated in other urban centers.

Protesters are likely to use Molotov cocktails and conduct targeted vandalism and arson attacks on public infrastructure, with the ESMAD likely to respond using forcible dispersal measures such as tear gas, rubber pellets, water cannons, and possibly live ammunition. Roadblocks are likely to be erected on key highways nationwide with severe travel disruptions anticipated to be witnessed at ports of entry and border crossings as well, particularly if the curfews continue. The anticipated delays in negotiations and policy changes are likely to stoke such protests and contribute to a rise in disruptive acts.

In Bogota, potential protest locations include government buildings and past focal points of unrest such as Parque Nacional, Plaza Bolivar, and President Duque’s residence at Calle 145. The curfew in Bogota could be extended further if instances of unrest are continued to be recorded.

Focal Points of Protests in Bogota

Government expected to make major concessions during national dialogue

Given intense backlash against the ESMAD’s handling of the protests, which has contributed to a rise in anti-government sentiment, as well as long-held grievances among the public over economic policies and the peace process, the national dialogue is likely to be protracted and result in the administration having to make several concessions to the opposition and civil society groups.

Specifically, as seen in the case of Chile, President Duque is likely to make several personnel changes to stem calls for his resignation, to which he is unlikely to agree. In particular, high ranking officials in the departments of health, defense, education, and his cabinet are likely to be replaced, possibly with individuals holding slightly more left-wing views. This is likely to anger his political patron, former President Alvaro Uribe, and his supporters, increasing the likelihood of political stalemates in the days to come.

In addition, President Duque may agree to restart dialogue with the Ejercito Liberacion Nacional (ELN) and other Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC)-dissident groups in the face of intense pressure from indigenous communities who argue that the failed peace talks have resulted in increased violence in their regions. Calls for such a scenario have been bolstered further following the resignation of former Minister of Defense Guillermo Botermo on November 6 over a failed raid on a FARC-dissident camp that led to the deaths of eight minors and against the backdrop of the FARC rearmament announcement on August 29.

Recommendations

Travelers are advised to avoid nonessential travel to Bogota, Cali, Medellin, and other urban centers over the coming weeks due to the high potential for unrest.

Allot for disruptions to all forms of travel and public services over the coming days due to protests and the associated labor action. Reconfirm itineraries prior to air travel.

Remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding curfews and possible road closures. In the event that a security checkpoint is encountered, act respectfully and patiently, while cooperating fully with security personnel.

Protesters to remain steadfast on remaining demands, will influence November’s District Council elections – Hong Kong Analysis

Executive Summary

Chief Executive Carrie Lam invoked emergency legislation on October 4 to ban the use of masks during all protests in the city, a month after she formally announced the complete withdrawal of the extradition bill.

The significant escalation in protest tactics and forceful dispersal methods has resulted in a deterioration in all-around security in Hong Kong, while the protest lobby will continue to pressure the government to address all five of their demands.

The discovery of an IED in Mong Kok on October 13 for the first time during the ongoing wave of protests is highly notable. Despite its isolated nature, the incident is likely to be used by authorities to further justify a more heavy-handed crackdown on protesters, including mass arrests, over the coming weeks.

The anti-government campaign is liable to impact the upcoming District Council polls, slated for November, with election-related violence anticipated in the coming weeks.

Travel to Hong Kong can continue while adhering to security precautions regarding civil unrest, and avoiding the vicinity of all protests.

Current Situation

Hong Kong authorities officially withdrew the contentious extradition bill, via a statement by Secretary for Security John Lee at the Legislative Council (LegCo) on October 23. The move follows Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s announcement of the bill’s complete withdrawal on September 4 after it sparked anti-government protests since March. CE Lam also announced a ban on the use of masks in all protests by invoking emergency legislation on October 4.

Notable recent developments have included a significant uptick in protest tactics as well as police dispersal methods in the months of September and October. The most recent was a low-level IED explosion in Mong Kok during a protest in the area, during which demonstrators also threw at least 20 petrol bombs at the Mong Kok Police Station. Further, October 1 and 4 saw two separate instances of young protesters being shot by police personnel.

The US House of Representatives passed three pieces of legislation in support of Hong Kong on October 15. These include the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, which seeks an annual review of Hong Kong’s autonomy and the city’s special treatment as a separate trade entity if it becomes law. The second measure, the Protect Hong Kong Act, seeks to ban the commercial exports of military and crowd-control equipment that the police could use against protesters. The third measure passed by the House is a non-binding resolution recognizing Hong Kong’s relationship with the US, supporting the residents’ right to vote, and condemning China’s alleged interference in their domestic affairs.

Key Events in Anti-government Protests in Hong Kong

Assessments and Forecast

Escalation in violence, increased confrontations despite bill’s withdrawal signals entrenched position of protesters 

Recent tactics adopted by both the security forces and anti-government protesters, mainly consisting of Hong Kong’s youth, represent notable escalations. The first instances of protesters being shot by police forces have thus far aggravated radical groups and have sustained their use of more violent means of protests in recent weeks. FORECAST: The continuation of demonstrations despite CE Lam’s announcement of the formal withdrawal of the bill shows how the movement has evolved into a larger anti-government campaign, and as such, shows no signs of quelling in the near term.

Status if Demands by Anti-government Protesters

The introduction of the anti-mask law by emergency legislation served to further antagonize protesters against CE Lam. It also raised concerns about further restrictions on freedoms and the potential implementation of a full emergency in the city.  While this latter measure is less likely in the immediate term, sustained protest violence may be used to justify the usage of increased emergency measures in the long term, as was witnessed with the anti-mask regulation. Calls for CE Lam’s resignation are expected to continue gaining traction in the near term, evidenced by pan-democrats’ heckling of CE Lam during her policy address on October 16.

Vandalism, arson, and the use of petrol bombs can be expected with continued frequency by radical anti-government groups. The slightly diminished participation in protests may be attributed to various reasons. This may include the disengagement of more moderate groups who have now been placated by the withdrawal of the extradition bill or those driven away by the increase in violent protest tactics. Despite these factors, local solidarity with the anti-government campaign as a whole appears unlikely to abate, signaled by moderate groups dubbing their radical counterparts as “the braves” for continuing the movement. Specific incidents of escalation, such as the alleged police excesses or the use of live rounds to disperse protesters, may prompt a sudden spike in turnouts at rallies, especially on the weekends.

Authorities likely expected the extradition bill’s complete withdrawal to placate the protest movement. Instead, the withdrawal emboldened participating groups to continue pushing for their four remaining demands, likely due to perceptions that the withdrawal of the bill was a result of the pressure they put on the government. This continuation of protests has likely informed the increased intensity of forceful dispersal measures witnessed in the aftermath of the bill’s withdrawal. FORECAST: Police are liable to continue with this approach, using tear gas, water cannons, rubber bullets, and bean bag rounds, with the latent risk of isolated incidents involving live ammunition usage in the near term. The increasing frequency of MTR cancellations ahead of protests appear to have also created perceptions among protesters that the MTR corporation is siding with the police by restricting protesters’ movement. As such, MTR stations are likely to continue to remain hotspots, especially for acts of arson and vandalism.

The discovery of an IED in Mong Kok on October 13 for the first time during the ongoing wave of protests is highly notable, although it appears to have been crudely constructed and caused limited damage with no injuries. FORECAST: Nevertheless, the incident is likely to be used by authorities to further justify a more heavy-handed crackdown on protesters, including mass arrests, over the coming weeks. An increase in the deployment of riot police is also expected city-wide. However, it is unlikely that IED attacks will become commonplace in Hong Kong, as the aforementioned instance appears to have been an isolated event.

Anti-government campaign liable to inform trends in upcoming election

The protesters’ recent targeting of Chinese-owned banks and businesses in the city further highlights heightened anti-Beijing sentiments, which has largely energized the clashes between pro-democracy and pro-Beijing individuals in Hong Kong. FORECAST: This may further deepen social polarization within the city, especially ahead of the November District Council elections. Pro-democracy lawmakers may attempt to capitalize on current sentiments to gain visibility for their campaigns, potentially by staging election rallies during or close to predetermined anti-government events.

Voter turnout and support for these groups may see an uptick as smaller pro-democracy parties draw support by association with the protests. Turnouts in the election are liable to be high, based on the record number of citizens enrolled to vote. Incidents of election-related violence are also likely, potentially targeting pro-government lawmakers and their offices. This risk pertains to pan-democrat candidates as well, evidenced thus far in the October 16 attack on CHRF convenor and Lek Yuen constituency candidate Jimmy Sham.

FORECAST: Precedence suggests that the government will enforce stringent electoral rules to exclude pan-democrat candidates. This was witnessed in the barring of pro-democracy leader Joshua Wong, per an October 29 announcement. Authorities may also attempt to disqualify elected pro-democracy representatives following the polls. Such moves will exacerbate anti-government sentiment, potentially spurring a new wave of rallies or violence in the aftermath of the elections. Another trigger that could instigate such unrest is the cancellation of polls in specific areas due to security concerns. This is likely as such a move would be perceived as a rejection of protesters’ demand for universal suffrage.

FORECAST: Though the District Council polls are not expected to significantly impact the shaping of the Legislative Council, they will inform representation in the committee that selects the city’s chief executive. This is significant considering protesters’ calls for incumbent CE Lam’s resignation. While such a result is less likely at present, pan-democrats will seek to maximize poll participation in order to ultimately bolster their committee representation. In this light, Beijing will monitor the elections closely and may push to escalate the local government’s crackdown on pan-democrat candidates or their camp as a whole in the months that follow. This is especially likely in preparation for the Legislative Council elections set to occur in 2020.

Assult Incidents on Pro-democracy Activist

China may use punitive trade measures to discourage international support, risk of direct military intervention still low

The month of October saw China exerting its influence on US-based businesses that were perceived as supporting the protest movement in Hong Kong. The developments underscore China’s economic influence on US-based businesses by virtue of its large market access, especially those perceived to take an anti-China stance. This is bolstered by multiple Chinese businesses dropping sponsorship deals with a large US-based sporting franchise over perceived support for the protests.

FORECAST: The US House of Representatives’ votes in favor of several pieces of legislation to support Hong Kong on October 15 are likely to embolden pro-democracy demonstrators, especially as the votes coincided with a mass protest in Hong Kong in support of the legislation. The passage of these bills may be raised at ongoing trade talks between the US and China, as Beijing condemns Washington for interfering in affairs it views as domestic.  CE Lam’s recent statements that the administration will not hesitate to take Beijing’s assistance in quelling protests is likely a form of signaling; as such, direct intervention by the Chinese government or security forces still remains less likely in the immediate term. However, the level of security cooperation between Beijing’s security establishment and the Hong Kong police is expected to increase as protests sustain for the foreseeable future.

US Legislation in Support of Hong Kong

Recommendations

Travel to Hong Kong can continue while adhering to security precautions regarding civil unrest, crime, and protests.

Those operating or residing in Hong Kong are advised to avoid all travel near protests and further maintain heightened vigilance throughout the city due to the potential for continued demonstrations and the unrest. This may include the use of teargas and rubber bullets by police, incendiary objects such as petrol bombs, or the throwing of bricks and projectiles by protesters.

Avoid the vicinity of police stations, checkpoints, or other security installations as they are being increasingly targeted with arson attacks or vandalism in the latest wave of protests. This is particularly likely after multiple arrests occur at protest rallies.

Maintain particular vigilance around government buildings on Hong Kong Island, which are often used as protest sites, such as the LegCo Building, Central Government Complex, Hong Kong Police Headquarters, and Chief Executive’s Office.

Minimize nonessential travel to sensitive areas where the propensity for violence is greater at present. These primarily include Tin Shui Wai, Ma On Shan, Sha Tin, and Sheung Shui in the New Territories; Tsim Sha Tsui, Sham Shui Po, and the West Kowloon Train Station in Kowloon; and North Point in the Eastern District of Hong Kong Island.

Allot for disruptions if taking the MRT service given that authorities are known to close off specific lines to prevent protesters’ movements, especially during multiple simultaneous demonstrations across the city.

Avoid carrying any sensitive material either on electronic devices or clothing that puts forward controversial political opinions, particularly anti-Beijing stances, when crossing over by land due to the heightened security checks.

MAX Security has strong on-ground capabilities for executive protection and facilitating business travel to Hong Kong. For contingency plans and on-ground operational support, contact us at [email protected] or +44 20-3540-0434.

Widespread unrest reflects discontent with Rouhani’s economic policies, money spent in regional conflict; protests likely to subside – Iran Analysis

Current Situation

A reported leak of President Rouhani’s proposed government budget last month has triggered a wave of nationwide unrest in Iran which erupted on December 28. The budget leak exposed parts that were generally kept secret, and Iranians discovered that billions of USD were going to the military, hardline organizations, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and religious foundations. At the same time, the budget proposed an end to millions in subsidized and an increase in fuel prices.

Following the leaked budget, Iranians vented their frustration against the money going to the military and clerical establishment via a popular messaging app in Iran used by an estimated half of the country’s 80 million inhabitants.

On December 28, 2017, the hardliners, led by the prominent Ahmad Alamolhoda, started a demonstration in Mashhad, where hundreds shouted slogans against the weak economy and shouted “Death to the Dictator,” and “Death to Rouhani.” Videos of the event spread and triggered protests nationwide in the days that followed, despite attempts by authorities to block access to popular social media and messaging services used to organize and publicize the protests.

On January 2, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei responded to the unrest stating that the blamed “outside enemies” for the week’s events, without specifying who. President Rouhani, meanwhile, appealed for calm and maintained that the protesters “had the right to be heard.”

At the time of writing, the unrest has reportedly led to at least 450 arrests and 21 deaths.

Widespread unrest reflects discontent with Rouhani’s economic policies, money spent in regional conflict; protests likely to subside - Iran Analysis | MAX Security

 Widespread unrest reflects discontent with Rouhani’s economic policies, money spent in regional conflict; protests likely to subside - Iran Analysis | MAX Security

Assessments & Forecast

The unrest recorded over the past week comes amidst small-scale protests witnessed across Iran over the past months surrounding topics of economy and employment. These include demonstrations of hundreds of oil workers and truck drivers protesting late payment of wages, workers at a large sugar cane plantation and mill complex, bus drivers, teachers, tractor workers in Tabriz against their factory’s closure, Tehran tyre workers at bonuses being delayed, and victims of failed financial institutions across the country. In this context, the leaked budget served as a catalyst for these latest protests, and underscores the frustration and anger among large segments of the population over social-economic problems among the disaffected young people in peripheral, rural areas who have largely driven the demonstrations, in stark contrast to the protests witnessed in 2009 during the so-called “Green Revolution”, which were largely led by the urban middle class.

While the unrest began over economic grievances, it has since taken on a political dimension as demonstrators have voiced anger over corruption and the perceived authoritarian political system as a whole. This is reflected particularly in the anger over Iran’s regional policies and how it spends billions of USD to extend its influence abroad, including in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, despite the high unemployment and economic woes at home, as highlighted by the slogans of “Let go of Syria, think about us” and “I give my life for Iran, not Gaza, not Lebanon”. Moreover, what makes these protests exceptionally notable is the extent of the radical and sometimes slogans used, as some have called for the death of the president and even unprecedented calls of “Death to Khamenei” and calling for the Supreme Leader to step down and demanding the exit of clerics from politics.

FORECAST: We assess that it’s unlikely that the protest movement will survive in the long-term and lead to a collapse of the system for several reasons. First, the fact that it has taken on a political dimension and the use of political slogans has been exploited by the authorities as a justification to crack down on protesters as “anti-social” and violent elements. Moreover, this government approach has been aided by the support protesters have received from abroad, particularly from the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. The Iranian authorities already perceive, or at the very least vocalize the perception that the unrest has been manufactured and manipulated by foreign governments. That these foreign governments are openly and publicly supporting the protests will thus only further serve to strengthen this perception and allow the government to increase its crackdowns under the guise of protecting Iran’s sovereignty from the interference of foreign states. With this in mind, should the Iranian authorities decide to implement their forces fully, including the IRGC and the Basij, in repressing the protests, it’s highly likely the demonstrations will be swiftly minimized.

Second, unlike the “Green Revolution” in 2009, these latest protests lack leadership, alternative, and a shared vision. Protesters are united in what they don’t want, rather than what they want, as indicated by the often contradictory slogans. Some want democracy, yet more nostalgic ones praise the former monarchy and the Shah. Demonstrators have called for the death of moderate Rouhani, yet also called for an end to the clerical establishment. Others still are invoking nationalistic ideals and racial slogans, such as “We are Aryans, we don’t worship Arabs.” Overall, given this lack of leadership and organization, the protests are likely to either peter out over time, particularly if the government shows a willingness to make concessions and reforms or will be quelled by an increased crackdown.

That said, we assess that the heightened unrest will continue for longer in the country’s peripheral regions where both civil unrest and militancy stemming from sectarian tensions have long been an issue. These include the southeastern Sistan-Baluchistan Province, a predominantly Arab-populated southwestern Iran, including primarily Khuzestan Province, and the majority-Kurdish-populated northwestern Iranian provinces of Kordestan, West Azerbaijan, Kermanshah, and Ilam. Over the past week, we have already witnessed a higher level of unrest and arrests in these areas, as local activists and militant groups are likely seeking to exploit the nationwide discontent to further their own separatist ambitions. Furthermore, the authorities have a history of severely cracking down on these regions, thus making it more likely for escalations between security forces and locals. Over the coming weeks and months, such escalation will likely lock these regions in a vicious cycle of arrests, which subsequently provoke the locals to further unrest and militant attacks, prompting a security crackdown in return.

Recommendations

Business travel to Tehran, Esfahan and other major cities may continue at this time while remaining cognizant of ongoing protests and avoiding the vicinity of such events.

Western nationals are advised to remain cognizant to prevailing negative sentiment toward the United States and other North American and Western European countries.

We advise against all travel to outlying border areas with Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Armenia due to ongoing militant activity.

Those traveling to Iran should anticipate prolonged questioning by customs officials. Refrain from traveling with sophisticated cameras or other features affiliated with journalists. Cooperate with all security officials and respond to questioning in a respectable and calm manner.

Refrain from discussing the current political situation, Iran’s nuclear program, or tensions with the United States and Israel with local residents as a basic precaution. Be advised that authorities may monitor communications from hotels and other facilities frequented by foreigners, while internet access may be limited.

In the event that embassy services are required, it is advised to check the operational status of pertinent embassies and consulates. Consular services for US citizens are provided through the auspices of the Swiss Embassy in Tehran.

Egypt Riots: The Islamists Chance To Sink The SCAF Once And For All?

By Daniel N.

Poised to dominate the next parliament, Egypt’s Islamists have been provided with an opportunity to rid the SCAF of its remaining political clout.

Egyptian youth riot in Downtown Cairo. (AP)

What began last Friday as another provocation by the usual revolutionary trouble makers has quickly evolved into a stark display of the SCAF’s brutality, to which all Egyptians can identify with.  Friday’s unrest spiraled out of control in nearly the same fashion as the November 18 protests, which nearly compromised the first round of parliamentary elections. The unrest began when the military attempted to attack a distinct group of anti-regime holdouts, this time in front of the Cabinet building. Like the last round which erupted at Tahrir Square, activists flooded images of police brutality on social media through their camera phones, enraging and rallying area youth to join the ensuing riots.

Like the previous round of unrest, the Muslim Brotherhood and other influential factions have stood silent, refraining from sending their supporters into the streets, only issuing generalized condemnations and calling for a halt to violence. Despite the fact that the November unrest began after a mass Brotherhood-led anti-SCAF rally, the ensuing riots by revolutionary youth groups threatened to derail the much anticipated parliamentary elections. Continue reading Egypt Riots: The Islamists Chance To Sink The SCAF Once And For All?