Tag Archives: Syria

Al Qaeda’s Syrian Front

The recent wave of suicide bombings in Syria, along with Lebanon’s seizure of a weapons-laden cargo ship intended for Syrian rebels, underscores the infiltration of not only Sunni-jihadist ideology into Syria, but also weapons, tactics, and fighters from throughout the Middle East. Those forces, along with radical Syrian Islamists, are likely set to intensify their attacks on both civilian and government targets in an attempt to turn Syria, although unlikely, into the new Iraq.

Unlike Egypt, the Syrian government proved to be far too entrenched to be removed by civilian protests and international pressure alone. This realization and an increasingly brutal government crackdown spawned an inevitable militarization of the conflict, additionally fueled and intensified by Sunni elements throughout the Middle East, mainly Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Libya. Although Sunni militants are no longer able to defeat Syria’s well-armed, motivated, and efficient fighting force in battle, they are leaning towards a strategy where bombings and other asymmetrical attacks on government and civilian targets alike are likely to become the norm for the near future in Syria.

Continue reading Al Qaeda’s Syrian Front

Assad’s Military Gains and the Western-Sunni Setback in Syria

 

The Alawite regime in Syria has by and large won a series of impressive tactical victories. Fighting is not yet over, however mere mop-up operations and rebel raids remain. The war has been costly, as bloodshed has already claimed more than 10,000 lives in Syria. To that point, the existing sectarian tensions and the asymmetrical nature of the conflict, mean that Syria is likely to endure a prolonged low-level insurgency for some time. With Assad no longer clinging to power, his military successes’ highlight the regime’s overall mastery of sectarian divisions, and the premier factor for his sect’s ability to rule Syria for over four decades. Needless to say, without mastering those divisions – mainly the ethnic and religious minorities against the Sunni Arab majority – Syrian military gains and continued Alawite rule would have been impossible.

Furthermore, Assad agreed to a recent UN-brokered ceasefire after he and his advisers likely calculated that they could officially declare an end to the fighting with the upper hand, which could theoretically offer him greater leverage in post-conflict negotiations. However, those negotiations are unlikely to happen any time soon, as militants within Syria and their supporters abroad are unlikely to recognize any peace deals with Damascus in the near future. Simply, their intransigence towards negotiating will serve to show that the Assad regime is an illegitimate ruler of Syria.

Even so, immediately after the fragile agreement was being announced, Assad’s forces stormed the population centers of al-Mazareb, Khirbet Ghazale, Homs, Latame, and Saraqeb, showing once again that it is on the offensive and reaffirmed that it has the upper hand. Although the ceasefire is by and large holding, it remains unlikely that it will last in the near term, given that there still exists fighting on both sides throughout Syria and the opposition’s reluctance to re-accept Alawite rule. 

On the diplomatic front, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently warned Sunni Arab and Western states against continuing to arm Syrian rebels by saying, even if they were “armed to the teeth”, they will still lose. Russia’s warning shows that Moscow is indeed confident that Assad’s regime will stay put. But most importantly for the Kremlin, Russia has been successful, along with other powers, in deterring its Western rivals from taking more aggressive action in Syria.

At present, Assad and his army have by and large defeated the potency of Sunni militants in Syria. The current low-level insurgency does not pose an existential threat to the regime in Damascus for the near future and desperate calls for intervention are unlikely to bear fruit any time soon. In addition, after regaining greater stability within Syria, Assad’s regime will likely seek retaliation against those entities that increased their meddling in the country. Chiefly, Assad could use his sectarian allies, such as the Kurdish PKK – a new ally, the Alevis in Turkey, Hezbollah, and minority Shiites across the Middle East to punish those actors who acted against him, mainly Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.

Assad’s victories have shown that the era of dictatorial rule is indeed not over and the forces which promoted the ousting of Qaddafi in Libya and Mubarak in Egypt, are losing the current battle in Syria. Moreover, those who predicted Assad’s demise soon after protests broke out over a year ago- spoke to soon. For his continued rule highlights that despite claims that the new era of the “Arab Spring” would bring sweeping democracy throughout the Middle East, sectarianism prevails.

For up to date analysis on the Syrian conflict, click here.

Syria’s Sectarian War of Attrition

Syria’s military is escalating its offensive on the country’s Sunni rebels; however the violence in Syria is not likely to end in the near future, even if Assad is ousted. To that point, Damascus has been unable to implement a strategy capable of ending the eleven-month Sunni uprising, likewise the opposition has yet to oust the regime from power.

Syria’s sectarian fault-lines have been drawn for centuries and the opposition has been unsuccessful in diminishing the importance of such divisions. Most importantly, they failed to convince Assad’s forces to defect en mass, thus Syria’s military remains a cohesive, effective, and motivated fighting force. Meanwhile, Al-Qaeda’s recent call for jihad against the Alawite regime will be unhelpful in persuading minorities to abandon it. Furthermore, Damascus has prepared for an internal Sunni uprising for over four decades and while many are quick to predict Assad’s demise, his ouster would not end the sectarian conflict in Syria. Ultimately, the conflict’s sectarian character, which is often overlooked, along with several other important factors is leading to a long and bloody civil war in Syria. Continue reading Syria’s Sectarian War of Attrition

The Kremlin’s Syrian Gambit

By Yagil B. and Danny B.

Russia’s continued support for Syria is no more than a coldly calculated move meant to bolster its position as global super power.

Russia sent a strong message to the West earlier this month when its aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kutznetsov, docked in the Syrian port of Tartus amidst much bravado. Since that time, the Kremlin has unabatedly remained steadfast in its diplomatic support for the embattled regime by threatening to block any punishing UN Security Council resolutions, drawing the ire of the Sunni Arab world. on January 27, Moscow said a UN draft that condemned Bashar al-Assad and called for his ouster, failed to address Russia’s interests. Like Iran, Russia continues to demonstrate its loyalty to the embattled Alawite-led Assad regime, even as it becomes ever more isolated within the Arab League and the international community.
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The Battle For Arsal

By Daniel N.

One unsuspecting Bekaa Valley village has become the focal point of the battle for perceptions of the Syrian conflict.

Lebanese soldiers stand guard near the Syrian border. (El Riyadh)

Immediately after another deadly suicide bombing ripped through central Damascus on Friday, the Assad Regime, the Syrian opposition, and their allies abroad unloaded accusations as to the identity of the perpetrators. While opposition’s assertion of a regime-orchestrated conspiracy has fallen on deaf ears around the world, this latest bombing certainly bolsters Assad’s claim that radical Al Qaeda-linked militants have joined the ranks of collective struggle to topple him.  Regardless of the actual perpetrators, both Assad and the opposition understand that perceptions of Syria descending into sectarian chaos only further cement the international community’s hesitation to expedite his ousting. At the base of Assad’s claims lies the town of Arsal, a sleepy village in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, whose unsuspecting citizens have become embroiled in a heated debate which may just decide the outcome of the Syrian conflict.

Arsal was catapulted into the global spotlight immediately after twin car bombings struck Damascus on December 23, 2011. After the attacks, Syrian officials based their claims of Al Qaeda involvement on statements made days prior by Lebanese Defense Minister Fayez Ghosn, who stated that Jihadists were infiltrating into Syria through illegal border crossings. Ghosn claimed that Arsal, a Sunni village of 40,000 people located 35 kilometers from the Syrian border, had become a hotbed for these activities. The statements sparked outrage amongst Arsal’s residents, who claimed that there was little evidence to suggest that the town was harboring Al Qaeda extremists. While village elders admitted that some local mosques were known as bastions of fundamentalism, they enjoyed little influence over the town’s residents.  In the days that followed, Arsal became the focal point of a heated debate in Lebanon over the existence of Al Qaeda extremists in the country.  Continue reading The Battle For Arsal

War in Gaza: Sooner Rather Than Later?

By Ron G.

Unfortunately for Hamas, the Gaza Strip remains a negligible pawn on the Middle East chessboard, a playing card to be used by regional powers when it suits them most. 

Tension in southern Israel remains high after the Israeli Air Force targeted a smuggling tunnel and another terror-related facility in the Gaza Strip following the fire of four Kassam rockets into Southern Israel on December 28. The recent exchange of fire was triggered by the targeted killing of two militants in the Gaza Strip on December 27, who according to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) were en-route to commit a terror attack along the country’s southern border with Egypt. At least one of the militants killed in the raid was reportedly an Islamic Jihad member.

Islamic Jihad militants march in Rafah.

Until now, the Islamic Jihad’s response has been  relatively mild. In previous instances, the militant group responded by firing larger salvos of rockets into Israel, and to greater distances. The mild response can be attributed to a number of factors. First and foremost, the group has suffered serious losses in its recent skirmishes with Israel, especially during the months of August, September and October. Second, the Islamic Jihad is being restrained by Hamas, who controls the Gaza Strip and has a low interest in escalating the situation at this point. Lastly the group is being pressured by both Fatah and Hamas to avoid an escalation at a time when reconciliation talks between Palestinian factions are underway.

Since  the cessation of operation Cast Lead in 2009, both Israel and Gaza-based militants have upheld an unspoken status quo. In this new reality, sporadic rocket fire into the area surrounding the Gaza Strip was largely tolerated, with each such incident met with a limited IDF response. Every violation of this status quo has led to a temporary and localized escalation. These exchanges usually included bouts of more intensive rocket fire into Israel’s southern cities, answered with more costly targeted attacks by the Israeli Air Force against more sensitive targets in the Gaza strip.  Continue reading War in Gaza: Sooner Rather Than Later?

Syrian Opposition Takes a Hit From Damascus Bombings

By Daniel N.

Regardless of who was responsible, the recent suicide attacks bolster the position of the Assad Dictatorship.

Since the uprising began in March 2011, President Bashar Al Assad has attempted to brand the Syrian opposition as “terrorists” in order to justify his brutal crackdown. The carnage and mass casualties of Friday’s twin suicide bombing attacks may have done just that, throwing the spotlight on the possibility of extremist infiltration into the Syrian opposition.

Mourners attend a funeral for those killed in Friday’s bombings. (SANA)

Friday’s carnage unfolded when at least two explosive-laden vehicles were detonated near security facilities in the heart of the capital. Plumes of smoke could be seen from throughout the capital, while gunfire reportedly rang out amidst the bedlam that followed. Indeed, the perpetrators had managed to smash the relative calm enjoyed by citizens of the Syrian capital, fomenting the kind of chaos more commonly seen in Kabul or Baghdad. Immediately after the explosions, the state media rushed to attribute to the attacks to Al Qaeda-affiliated jihadists, pointing to a recent report that operatives had penetrated its territory through Lebanon.  Continue reading Syrian Opposition Takes a Hit From Damascus Bombings

Assad is No Moammar Gaddafi

By Jay R.

The minimal support provided to Syrian revolutionaries from abroad will only amount to a longer, bloodier conflict. 

The Syrian uprising began nine months ago, when in March, thousands of pro-reform demonstrators took to the streets in Deraa to denounce the Assad regime. Since that time, thousands of civilians have been killed and the country has arguably declined into civil war.

Troops on their way to Deraa in southern Syria.

Just a month before the streets of Deraa erupted, the world’s attention was on Benghazi. Libyans had also taken to the streets in similar fashion, who were likewise met with live ammunition by Ghaddafi’s forces. The events in Benghazi escalated to civil war in their own right; however the end of hostilities there has already arrived.

The primary reason for the end of Libyan hostilities was the overwhelming support that opposition forces received from the international community. It only took two weeks from the time the Libyan people demanded change in their country for the world to begin its assistance, when it froze Gaddafi’s and his inner circle’s assets, limited their travel, and referred the lot to the International Criminal Court. In just the following month, the United Nations approved a resolution to enforce a no-fly-zone, which included using “all necessary measures” to thwart attacks on the citizenry. The aforesaid resolution subsequently led to a new Libyan government, which was recognized by the United Nations, in just seven month’s time.

Meanwhile, across the Mediterranean, the Syrian uprising is entering its nine month and the disparity between the two revolutions is vast. Assad is still in power, and his efforts to quell the revolution in his country persist as unabated as scores of people are being killed every day. However, it must be noted that the Syrian opposition, as did the Libyan counterpart, formed its own National Council of rebel organizations. Continue reading Assad is No Moammar Gaddafi

Why Turkey is Betting Big on the Syrian Uprising

By Daniel N.

A new Syrian regime sympathetic to Turkey, would plug the last whole in Turkey’s quest for regional hegemony.

The Syrian conflict is entering its tenth month with Assad’s grip on power largely intact. As opposed to Libya, Egypt, and even Yemen, the international community has been largely reluctant to pressure the Assad regime to end the violence, while the opposition itself has struggled to gain legitimacy amongst the Arab League as a viable alternative current leadership.

Turkish premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

To their credit, the West and the Arab world are justified in their hesitation to intervene in Syria. Unlike Libya’s Qaddafi, Assad is closely backed by Iran, as well as Lebanon’s most powerful militia, Hizbullah. In addition, Syria’s sharp sectarian divides between Allawites, Sunni’s, and Kurds, threaten a post-revolution civil war on Iraq’s western border.

Needless to say, the exiled Syrian National Council (SNC) seems unconnected to events taking place within the country, unable to influence the insurgent Free Syrian Army, which has overtaken the spotlight from the opposition’s peaceful protest campaign. Amidst the hesitation of the Arab world and the west to take any real action, Turkey has emerged as the most outspoken critic of the Assad Regime, despite the previously warm ties enjoyed by the two nations.

Since the conflict first erupted in Syria’s rural towns, the Turkish government, let by Premier Recep Tayyep Erdogan, has constantly called for Assad to step down, pushed for sanctions, and even hinted at military intervention in the form of a “Humanitarian buffer zone.” In addition to hosting the Syrian National Council, it is widely rumored that insurgents from the Free Syrian Army are staging their attacks from Turkish territory under the knowledge of the military.

Despite the risks, Turkey above all other nations stands to benefit from regime change in Syria. Since the days of the Ottoman Empire, Syria has served as the Turk’s gateway to the Arab world, its territory constantly remaining firmly within the Empire’s grip as it grew and shrank in size elsewhere. Continue reading Why Turkey is Betting Big on the Syrian Uprising

The Syrian Opposition’s Long Road to Victory

By Daniel N.

Only a dramatic escalation in the Syrian conflict will convince the world that Assad must fall

On December 2nd, Syrian insurgents staged an attack on an Intelligence facility in northern Idlib province. Eight people were killed in the ensuing clashes, including several Air Force intelligence personnel. Like the high-profile attack on the Air Force intelligence headquarters in Damascus, the media rushed to portray this act along with recent calls for sanctions as the fall of another pillar signaling the imminent end of the Assad regime.   The reality of the situation is that the Idlib attack symbolizes all that is plaguing Syrian opposition in its many forms.

The Idlib attack came hours after the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) insurgent group announced a decision to coordinate their resistance. Included in the agreement, was a pledge by the FSA to halt its offensive attacks, limiting its armed activity to protecting protest neighborhoods in flashpoint cities like Homs and Hama. The SNC, an umbrella body of various opposition groups in exile has been struggling to prove its legitimacy to the world, while the FSA has taken the spotlight with its high profile attacks, drawing concerns of the advent of a civil war in Syria.  The nature of these groups and geographical and ideological divides between them continue to deter the international community from taking measures which would expedite Assad’s fall as they did Gaddafi.

Continue reading The Syrian Opposition’s Long Road to Victory