Tag Archives: SCAF

Clashing for the Future of Egypt

Supporters of banned Salafi presidential candidate, Hazem Salah Abu Ismail demonstrate in Cairo (Getty Images)

The latest bloodshed in Cairo underscores worrying trends and emerging realities regarding Egypt’s internal security and political future. The recent clashes in the vicinity of Cairo’s Abbasseya Square illustrate the readiness of prominent political groups to forcefully impose their views, demands, and ideologies as they battle for the country’s new identity. Sadly for Egypt, this process has just begun and is not likely to end anytime soon; indeed, the bloody volatility in Egypt has not subsided since the events of January 2011.

Under these circumstances – from a security point of view – what is most important to note here is how the volatile political situation directly translates into an erosion of the security condition on the ground. Violence in downtown Cairo is often centered on political disputes, involving opposing factions, who are more prone to resolve their differences by force, as they believe this the most optimum course of action to achieve their goals.

Continue reading Clashing for the Future of Egypt

What’s behind Egypt’s new balance of power

By Daniel N.

Despite the media’s love affair with the anti-SCAF activist movement, the Egyptian revolution has already been secretly decided.

Traffic returns to Cairo’s Tahrir Square after thousands gathered for events marking the January 25 anniversary.

After the tense buildup to the anniversary of the revolution, Egypt’s new ruling elite can breathe a sigh of relief. While tens of thousands of liberal activists swarmed Tahrir Square agains
t the military leadership, they failed to rehash the nationwide anger which led to the ousting of Hosni Mubarak on January 25 of last year.  It seems clear that after a year of political unrest, sectarian violence, civil strikes, and economic turmoil, the majority of Egyptians have opted to ensure their security, even if it means forgoing the original goals of the revolution. This security has been achieved by the emergence of a new balance of power, carefully negotiated against the backdrop of parliamentary elections between the Muslim Brotherhood and the ruling military council.

This shadowy agreement first became evident in November 2011, when liberal activists engulfed Downtown Cairo in rioting, threatening stability before the onset of parliamentary elections. While the media flocked to Mohammed Mahmoud Street to capture romantic images of stone-throwing youth, Muslim Brotherhood leaders secretly met with SCAF officials to decipher a way to end the violence in a mutually beneficial manner.

The Middle East and North Africa In 2012: What Lies Ahead?

By Max Security’s Intelligence Department

The feelings of hope and opportunity initially evoked by the Arab Spring have evolved into fear that the region may be sliding into a new status quo of instability. We sweep the region from Morocco to Iran to determine that 2012 will be one of the most crucial years in the modern history of the Middle East.

The Maghreb

The Muslim Brotherhood’s recently formed Freedom and Justice Party holds a press conference. The FJP is slated to win nearly 40% of seats in Egypt’s first post-Mubarak parliament. (Bikyamasr)

While North Africa by and large experienced the most significant change from the Arab Spring uprisings, it would be a grave mistake to place the fate of these politically diverse set of nations into one.  In Morocco, the people still have great respect for the region’s oldest monarchy, sentiment which prevented widespread unrest from engulfing the nation this past year. The recent victory of moderate Islamist factions in parliament forces the monarchy to balance between their wishes, while keeping Morocco an attractive address for foreign investment to keep the economy on its feet. While Morocco can be expected to remain relatively stable, a widening gap between rich and poor and growing unemployment only works to the favor of the liberal February 20 reformers and the outlawed Islamist Justice and Spirituality movement, which currently remain marginalized.

In Algeria, the situation is quite different. The country emerged unscathed from the Arab Spring, not out of any sort of respect for the military-backed government, but rather out of fears for a repeat of the country’s bloody civil war which is still fresh in the minds of most of the population. While stability prevailed in 2011, tensions are brewing beneath the surface as Algerians come to realize that they are indeed the last nation to tolerate a corrupt military dictatorship which has failed to provide both physical and economic security. The success of Islamist parties to the East and West has emboldened Algeria’s own conservative opposition to demand reforms ahead of the upcoming elections-slated for the Spring of 2012. Moreover Bouteflika’s ailing health places the military and its allies in a considerable predicament, as replacing Bouteflika without elections will only provide fuel to an increasingly disillusioned population. The loss of the Bouteflika regime would spell a considerable setback in North Africa’s war against Al Qaeda, which despite recent losses- still has its sights set on fomenting instability in Algeria.

Continue reading The Middle East and North Africa In 2012: What Lies Ahead?

Safe Travel in Cairo: Debunking the Myths

By Max Security’s Travel Security Department

While the situation in Cairo isn’t as bad as the media makes it out to be, the reality has changed drastically since Mubarak’s ousting. 

Cairo’s Khan Al Khalili Market. Touristed areas like these have become havens for illegal peddling given  an increasingly limited police presence.

In the past weeks, media coverage on Egypt has focused on the plight of a select group of protesters who took to the streets of Downtown Cairo to combat teargas-firing government troops with rocks and Molotov cocktails. Tahrir Square, Mohammed Mahmoud Street, and the rest of central Cairo were made to seem as if the entire city had been engulfed in a battle royal of tear gas and black smoke. While even the average Cairene will tell you not to go near Downtown, the rest of the city remains largely unaffected by ongoing political unrest, with locals making every effort to return the capital to a sense of normality. While the effects of political turmoil may have been hyped, Cairo has become especially hazardous in recent months, and there are a number of dangers that still pose a risk to the unsuspecting visitor.

Depending on your luck, traveling to Cairo can be a roller coaster ride right from the get-go. Cairo’s international airport itself has been the scene of various scuffles relating to just about every contentious topic in the Egyptian discourse. Labor related sit-ins, fighting between supporters and opponents of the Syrian regime, and frustration over the general disorder and overcrowding at the arrivals hall have commonly resulted with the intervention of baton-wielding military police.  Continue reading Safe Travel in Cairo: Debunking the Myths

Egypt Riots: The Islamists Chance To Sink The SCAF Once And For All?

By Daniel N.

Poised to dominate the next parliament, Egypt’s Islamists have been provided with an opportunity to rid the SCAF of its remaining political clout.

Egyptian youth riot in Downtown Cairo. (AP)

What began last Friday as another provocation by the usual revolutionary trouble makers has quickly evolved into a stark display of the SCAF’s brutality, to which all Egyptians can identify with.  Friday’s unrest spiraled out of control in nearly the same fashion as the November 18 protests, which nearly compromised the first round of parliamentary elections. The unrest began when the military attempted to attack a distinct group of anti-regime holdouts, this time in front of the Cabinet building. Like the last round which erupted at Tahrir Square, activists flooded images of police brutality on social media through their camera phones, enraging and rallying area youth to join the ensuing riots.

Like the previous round of unrest, the Muslim Brotherhood and other influential factions have stood silent, refraining from sending their supporters into the streets, only issuing generalized condemnations and calling for a halt to violence. Despite the fact that the November unrest began after a mass Brotherhood-led anti-SCAF rally, the ensuing riots by revolutionary youth groups threatened to derail the much anticipated parliamentary elections. Continue reading Egypt Riots: The Islamists Chance To Sink The SCAF Once And For All?

Egypt’s Elections: The SCAF’s Last Chance?

By Daniel N.

With Islamist’s hands tied by their ongoing success in parliamentary elections, the army has one last chance to secure its influence in Egypt’s future government before it’s too late.

Last week, a ranking SCAF official held a highly unusual press conference exclusively with foreign correspondents. In what was widely perceived to be a message to the West, the official called the recent election results into question and stated that the SCAF would maintain oversight over the drafting of a future constitution.

While less than one month ago the same issue sparked mass demonstrations, Islamists groups including the Muslim Brotherhood have remained largely silent in the face of these provocative statements. The SCAF now has a window of opportunity to press ahead with efforts to secure its influence in a future constitution, leaving Islamists with the choice of disrupting the election process or allowing the promise of an Islamist Egypt to slip from their grasp.

A military officer meets with protesters in Tahrir Square.(Reuters) The SCAF has since come under scrutiny for its attempts to influence the drafting of the constitution.

Ever since the March 2011 constitutional referendum, the SCAF’s insistence on influencing the makeup of the future constitution has fueled tensions in the country, most recently with Egypt’s powerful Islamist factions. This tension came to a boiling point in November, when the SCAF-backed Sharaf government refused to give ground on the implementation of “Supra-Constitutional Principles”, sparking mass protests by the Muslim Brotherhood, which eventually evolved into the nationwide unrest which nearly compromised parliamentary elections. These principles, which would have effectively implanted boundaries on the power of any future Islamist-led parliament, have until now remained the SCAF’s tool to ensure Egypt as a secular state, as well as autonomy in deciding the military budget.

The results of the first round of parliamentary elections has however, reignited fears both within Egypt and around the world of the possibility of an Islamist takeover, with both moderate and Salafist parties garnering 60% of the vote. As the second and third rounds of elections scheduled to take place in rural areas of Egypt, there is a high likelihood that these parties will only secure more and more seats in the future parliament. Liberal parties who once opposed the SCAF’s encroachment on Egypt’s future governance, now find themselves marginalized with the realization that the military is now the best chance they have at securing a secular and democratic future for Egypt. In addition, the prospect of an Islamist victory may also have swayed the West, which just three weeks ago joined protesters in Tahrir Square in calls for a transition of power to a civilian government. Continue reading Egypt’s Elections: The SCAF’s Last Chance?