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Far-right militancy to increase in form of cells and lone-wolves – Europe Special Report

Executive Summary

A series of attacks and arrests linked to far-right individuals in Europe, as well as statistics and official statements from a number of European governments, underscore the threat as fast becoming the primary militant issue going forward.

Modern right-wing militancy has taken on a particularly transnational character, with online forums enabling communication and radicalization between countries.

Attacks in one country can easily spur similar copy-cat incidents in others due to social media and international news coverage.

Far-right militants come in two forms. Major cells will continue to form and operate but are more likely to be detected by security forces. Lone-wolves constitute the most significant threat but, in most cases, do not have the access to fire-arms of their American counterparts.

Far-right attacks are likely to grow in number across Western and Northern Europe, with migrant, religious, and political targets being specifically singled out.

Recommendations

Security plans should be updated to reflect the relevant threats associated with far-right militancy, including up-to-date training for staff, particularly regarding both the online and in-person profiles of attackers. Pay attention to differing threats from organized cells and lone-wolf individuals.

Public, private, and third sector organizations are advised to increase their awareness of threats on social media through the use of threat monitoring services. Increased awareness of an organization’s political footprint and perceptions from fringe online groups can help uncover potential violent actors and plots before they occur.

Institutions should increase their intelligence collection capabilities, including HUMINT, OSINT, and Deep & Dark web searches in order to understand the full spectrum of threats.

Immediately alert authorities of any suspicious behavior or items.

Background

The rise of far-right ideologies in Europe saw a milestone during the European Parliament elections in 2019 when a number of far-right, alt-right, or populist parties were some of the top-performing political groups. In France, Italy, and the UK, far-right or populist-right parties came top, with similar outcomes reported in a number of other countries, and populist right parties increasing their total share of the European Parliament by almost 30%.

On August 14, the German Interior Ministry released figures registering 8,605 “right-wing extremist” offenses in the first half of 2019. This was an increase by over 900 compared to the same period of 2018. The 8,605 crimes attributed to far-right groups or motives included 363 violent incidents, with at least 179 people injured. Some sources indicated that the actual number of incidents could be higher due to state police officials often classifying right-wing offenses as non-political in initial reports.

In addition, a number of major political and social developments occurred in Europe which increased and catalyzed far-right sentiments across the continent. These included the migrant and refugee crisis, perceptions of economic disparity, the increase in militant incidents attributed to the Islamic State, the growth of social media as the primary method of consuming media, and a rise in Euroscepticism, illustrated through Brexit. Broadly, this built on a disillusionment with the centrist and center-left politics which dominated large parts of the West for much of the last decade.

Concurrently, crimes attributed to anti-Semitic, Islamophobic, racist, xenophobic sentiments saw significant increases in a number of European countries in the previous decade. In Germany, the number of criminal incidents per year that were attributed to such sentiments increased by around 47% from 2007 to 2018. Similarly, in the UK, there was an increase of around 45% between 2011 and 2016, with the numbers further rising after Brexit.

A number of European governments have spoken out in recent months of the significantly increasing threat of far-right groups in the region. In July, the UK’s Home Office warned that right-wing extremists were forming the most significant group of militants in the country, while the far-right threat was included in the official terrorist warnings for the first time. In Germany, Interior Minister Horst Seehofer claimed that the June 2 shooting of a CDU politician should serve as a “wake-up call” for the country, arguing that “right-wing extremism is a serious danger for our free society.”

Assessments and Forecast

Transnationalization of the far-right through online forums

One development in the current state of the far-right is the transnational character it has taken on, largely through communications online and shared grievances among a number of Western countries. The transnational nature of a globally interconnected world, which has become a focus of many far-right talking points, meant that individuals who would be susceptible to far-right ideologies began feeling affected by similar issues throughout the world. It is through these shared issues that global echo chambers arose of far-right sympathizers who congregate online to discuss problems of immigration, conspiracies of Jewish power, white supremacy, and other extremist ideas.

Much of this transnational communication came through access to social media and online forums which either cater to such ideas or are unable to police the content. The rise of ‘meme culture’ bolstered this ideology, as users were able to radicalize new members by presenting extremist political ideas through cartoons and jokes, bypassing the negative connotations of neo-Nazism or fascism. Many of the more extreme members of the far-right online community have migrated to websites such as Gab and 8chan, which have little to no restrictions on content and, therefore, become hotbeds for far-right and neo-Nazi activity.

The global nature of news media has also increased the transnational nature of the far-right. As the ideology focuses on the preservation of the ‘white race,’ any incident in the world which is carried out in the name of this goal is highly praised by such communities, regardless of where the attack took place. In this regard, it is notable that two far-right attacks were recorded in the UK and one in Norway following the widespread sharing of news about the Christchurch attacks. Mass attacks in one country are highly likely to spur copycat attacks abroad in the following weeks, particularly in countries with similar cultural and linguistic backgrounds.

With regards to government action to stop far-right militancy, the transnational and loosely structured nature of online far-right activism means that, while security forces may be able to foil attacks, a government attempt to fight the ideology will be difficult. It is highly unlikely that any single government will be able to successfully undertake a deradicalization program without the help of the international community. With that, it is likely that this phenomenon will continue to expand in Europe, with various right-wing governments reluctant to fully engage in fighting the far-right, due to political benefits of discussing grievances such as immigration.

Organized Militant Cells

Organized militant groups represent the long-term progression of neo-Nazi cells, which have galvanized in popularity following a general increase in far-right sentiments and through far-right culture online. These cells often form doctrines based around neo-Fascist ideologies, historical revisionism, and frequently link to other subcultures such as local gangs, hooliganism, and fringe political parties. For the most part, many of these groups continue to look up to some form of National Socialism or local brand of extremist nationalism. Many have built strong online followings and grow their support through encrypted messaging apps, online forums, and social media.

These groups make up a large number of the far-right-linked arrests in Europe. Security forces often track members who have been involved in weapons smuggling. Furthermore, such groups are likely to have links with certain members of the military or far-right political parties in their respective country. This has largely played a role in helping groups with training, planning, and building networks. The groups, similar to many other extremist militant organizations, are often more popular among disenfranchised members of society, particularly focussing on young white males who feel abandoned by the political direction of their country, and Europe in particular.

It is important to note that much of the structure of modern far-right groups, including the online base, use of encrypted social media, knowledge of attack methods, and even choice of methods come from behavior learned from Islamist cells in Europe. Many of these groups strongly followed news about jihadism in Europe and likely used this template to help construct their own groups.

Far-right cells are more likely to attempt to carry out major attacks than lone-wolves, with goals of fundamentally changing or affecting the political system of Europe. Many foiled incidents have seen groups building large arms caches, looking to target high profile political or religious targets, meanwhile much of their rhetoric continues to have revolutionary themes. Future attack plans, whether successful or not, are likely to include attempts to build powerful IEDs or carry out multi-faceted and sophisticated attacks, involving a number of methods and targets. Far-right militant groups are likely to look to target individuals or institutions which they believe represent a specific threat to their ideology, including refugee centers, mosques and synagogues, minority leaders, and left-wing political figures or events.

Lone-Wolf Militants

As with the trend in other types of militancy, far-right militancy in Europe has also moved towards a lone-wolf angle. This likely comes from two main sources. First, lone-wolf attacks are much easier to carry out, as they avoid the high-risk communications between various different cell-members, which are more likely to alert security forces. Similarly, planning can be done alone and in secret. Second, the extremely visible trend of lone-wolf shootings with a far-right character in the USA, catalyzed, in part, by a dramatic increase in extremist and violent rhetoric online, has led to the radicalization of young, often mentally unstable men.

While lone-wolf attacks in Europe are unlikely to be as destructive as they are in the USA, largely due to the difficulty in obtaining firearms, they remain the most likely types of attacks. Unlike the attacks by larger militant cells, such attacks are likely to be unsophisticated and have lower impact. Many of the attacks may involve vehicular rammings, stabbings, or shootings with low-quality firearms.

Lone-wolf attacks are likely to be similarly targeted, looking to focus on individuals, institutions, or events which are particularly relevant to the far-right ideology, however, they are also likely to be far smaller and more local in character. It’s more probable that a lone-wolf will attack within their town or the area of their city, rather than traveling to the capital, in an attempt to carry out a major attack. This will likely increase the number of attacks happening in more peripheral areas in Europe.

Notable Militant Incidents

Attacks in 2019

Germany: A Christian Democratic Union (CDU) politician was shot dead on June 2, 2019, described by authorities as an ‘execution’ by a person who justified it based on the politician’s ‘pro-refugee’ stance. While details of the shooter were sparse in the days following the incident, far-right forums immediately began celebrating the shooter, attributing it as revenge for the politician’s support for migration. On June 15, a 45-year-old man was arrested in connection with the incident, with police confirming their suspicions of a far-right motive.

Germany: On January 1, 2019, an individual rammed his car into a crowd in Bottrop, western Germany in an attack suspected to be motivated by far-right ideologies. Among the people injured, seven were migrants, including two children. When the suspect was detained in Essen, after attempting to ram another set of pedestrians, he reportedly made racist remarks to police officers, with a member of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party calling it an act of ‘right-wing violence’.

Norway: On August 10, one person was injured when an individual wearing a uniform and body armor entered a Mosque in Skui, just outside of Oslo, and shot at three congregants. The man entered with two shotguns and a pistol and was later arrested by police. He is believed to have been influenced by far-right ideologies.

UK: On March 15, 2019, Muslim individuals were attacked with hammers outside of east London mosque by three men who were said to have shouted Islamophobic abuse. The attack occurred a number of hours after the Christchurch attack in New Zealand, in which 51 Muslim worshipers were killed in two mosques.

Arrests in 2019

France: On June 11, French authorities arrested members of a neo-Nazi cell across the country, beginning in Grenoble with the arrest of a volunteer police officer who had been amassing weapons. The members had been planning to attack Jewish institutions and Muslim places of worship. Five members of the group were closely associated with neo-Nazi ideologies and were charged between September 2018 and May 2019. Among the targets was the annual dinner of the Representative Council of French Jewish Institutions (CRIF). Naming themselves ‘L’Oiseau Noir’ (Black Bird), they were charged under terror offenses and for being part of a militant conspiracy.

Greece: Greek police arrested a man they believed to be the leader of the far-right militant group ‘Krypteia’ on June 4. The detained individual worked as a professor and is expected to be charged with arson, possession of weapons, and threats. The group has previously been implicated in an arson attack on an Afghan community center in March 2018, for ‘firebombing’ a migrant center in Athens in April 2018, and setting fire to a migrant camp Nea Manolada, Ilia in June 2018. Separately, the group claimed to have carried out over 21 attacks in 2018 in a leaked email.

Italy: Multiple military weapons, including a functioning air-to-air missile, were seized from a far-right group in Turin, northern Italy, per July 15 reports. Additional raids took place in Forli, Milan, Novara, Pavia, and Varese in conjunction with Direzione Centrale della Polizia di Prevenzione (DCPP). It reportedly was conducted following an investigation into individuals with extremist ideologies who took part in the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Three people were arrested including a former candidate for Senate for the far-right Forza Nuova. In addition to the weapons, authorities found large amounts of pro-fascist or Nazi memorabilia.

UK: Two teenage members of far-right groups from Leeds and west London were jailed on June 18 for calling for attacks on Prince Harry over his marriage to Duchess of Sussex Meghan Markle and minorities including non-white and Jewish people. The men, 18 and 19 years old, were part of the Sonnenkrieg Division, a far-right neo-Nazi group. An online blog run by one of the men included violent misogynistic content, including multiple calls for violent sexual assault, calling for readers to become ‘a machine of terror’. He was also found in possession of bomb-making instructions inspired by similar material used by militant Islamist groups. Both individuals were active online on the website Gab, which predominantly features a right-wing user base, designing propaganda to encourage militant attacks and to recruit members.

Boko Haram’s abduction, subsequent release of 104 schoolgirls in Dapchi likely to increase group’s notoriety, legitimacy among locals – Nigeria Analysis

Executive Summary

Militants attacked a government school in Dapchi village, Burasari Local Government Area (LGA) in Yobe State and abducted 110 students and two other children on February 19.

Following extensive negotiations with the Nigerian government that resulted in the safe return of 104 of the schoolgirls and the other two children after one month in captivity, Boko Haram has been able to once again garner international attention and portray themselves as a viable threat in Nigeria’s northeastern region despite extensive counterinsurgency operations.

In light of the upcoming general elections in 2019, the girls’ safe return has been projected by President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration as a triumph, which seems to have paved the way for the government’s appeasement stance toward the insurgency.

However, the incident has highlighted the administration’s propaganda of exaggerated success against the militant group and is poised to create backlash in the form of domestic and international criticism for Buhari’s policies concerning the insurgency.

We continue to advise against all travel to the northeastern Nigerian states of Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe, given the ongoing Boko Haram insurgency and extreme insecurity in the region.

Current Situation

Militants attacked a government school in Dapchi village, Burasari Local Government Area (LGA) in Yobe State and abducted 110 students and two other children on February 19.

President Muhammadu Buhari issued a statement on February 24 expressing his concern about the abduction, claiming that the situation was a “national disaster”. On the same day, the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) issued a counterstatement blaming Buhari for issuing exaggerated statistics suggesting that Boko Haram had been completely decimated, a situation that they claim put unsuspecting citizens in danger.

On March 12, Borno State authorities announced the closure of all boarding schools in 25 out of the 27 state’s LGAs due to the threat of Boko Haram militants conducting additional abductions. This came in wake of President Buhari’s decision to engage in negotiations for the release of the schoolgirls.

During the early morning hours of March 21, 106 abductees, including 104 schoolgirls and the two additional children, were dropped off in the middle of Dapchi by their captors, who also warned the locals against sending the girls to Western-style schools. While five of the remaining abductees reportedly died due to exhaustion, one Christian girl remains in the militants’ custody. The Nigerian government characterized the release as “unconditional”, though some sources citing locals indicate that authorities did free several militants who joined the kidnappers, while other sources suggest that the Nigerian government had paid a ransom to secure the girls’ release.

On March 23, while receiving the released girls in Abuja, President Buhari announced that his government was ready to grant amnesty to Boko Haram members who were ready to accept unconditional surrender.

Meanwhile, on April 1, at least 29 people were killed, including six militants, in a multi-pronged Boko Haram attack on Akikaranti, Bille Shuwa, and Bale-Galtimari communes surrounding Borno State capital, Maiduguri, coinciding with the Christian Easter holiday.

Assessments & Forecast

Assessments: Following extensive counterinsurgency operations targeting Boko Haram strongholds, group attempts to reassert presence, garner international, domestic attention

Despite subsequent large-scale security operations targeting well-documented militant strongholds such as the Sambisa Forest and Lake Chad shores in Nigeria’s northeastern region, the militants successfully launched the well-planned abduction of the Dapchi girls. Indeed, this incident resembles Boko Haram’s April 2014 attack on a school in Chibok, Borno State, when 276 girls were kidnapped. The Chibok attack resulted in an extensive international outcry, triggered by a domestic campaign started by the families of the Chibok girls. The #BringBackOurGirls movement put the Boko Haram conflict in the international spotlight, particularly when the former US First Lady Michelle Obama endorsed the campaign. In this context, the Dapchi attack was likely motivated by the prospect of achieving similar notoriety. Additionally, the attack came in response to security forces’ triumphant claims of the near-destruction of the militant group’s presence in the region. Through the Dapchi attack, the militants debunked such claims and reasserted their continued operational capabilities across the country’s northeast.

The Dapchi abductions rendered a successful outcome for the militants. While the federal government characterized the negotiations and the subsequent release of the hostages as completely “unconditional”, it contradicted local reports of the authorities’ release of several militants. Such conflicting reports align with previous allegations against authorities for releasing militants and paying ransom for militants, with the latest incident being the February 10 release of three lecturers from the University of Maiduguri, along with ten police officers abducted by Boko Haram last year. Under these circumstances, the suspected hefty ransom payment will likely be utilized by the militants to enhance and develop their operational capabilities in the region, which may have been hampered, to some extent, by the counterinsurgency operations.

Indeed, the government’s repeated payment of ransoms without any resistance is poised to encourage the militant group to carry out similar large-scale kidnappings. Such a concern was further emphasized by the Borno State authorities’ decision to shut down boarding schools across 25 of the 27 LGAs. Furthermore, the release of militants as part of the ransom payment reintroduces experienced and well-trained fighters to the ranks of the militant group, increasing their operational capabilities. This is further highlighted in the latest Boko Haram multi-pronged attack on April 1 that was reportedly coordinated by Shuaibu Moni, a top Boko Haram commander who was released by the government to facilitate the return of 82 Chibok girls in May 2017. Moni had previously appeared in a Boko Haram video on March 7 taunting the Nigerian security forces and threatening to launch additional attacks.

The theatrical grandeur of the return of the abductees as the militants drove into the center of Dapchi hailed as heroes by the local population for safely bringing back their girls was likely a symbolic attempt by the group to embolden its authority in the region. This sheds light on the militant group’s propaganda aimed towards gaining the locals’ trust and consolidate their influence in their areas of operation. As the militants shook hands with the locals and warned them against the return of the girls to schools for Western education, they compelled the latter to adhere to the militant group’s Islamist ideologies. Through the dramatic aspects of the event, the militants effectively portrayed themselves as legitimate actors in the region, with more control than the federal government in Abuja. Given the communities’ grievances against Abuja, as they continue to feel disregarded and neglected by the government, such an image of Boko Haram is poised to render the locals more susceptible to getting recruited by the militant group. Amidst the ongoing insurgency, these circumstances increase the possibility of better cooperation between the local communities and the militants, with the former providing shelter and engaging in economic transactions with the militants for their own survival.

Assessments: With 2019 elections nearing, Buhari makes strategic shift toward developing appeasement stance to overcome Boko Haram insurgency

Since President Buhari came into office in 2015, negotiations with Boko Haram in their kidnap-for-ransom schemes have become a recurring phenomenon, which includes the 2016 release of 21 Chibok girls and another 82 released in May 2017. Such a stance toward the militant group likely stems from large-scale international and domestic attention that these incidents received. Buhari has attempted to make good on his electoral promise of combating Boko Haram in contrast to the perceived failure of former President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration to effectively defeat the militant group. However, Buhari’s administration has also projected a stronger government resistance to the insurgency, which has led to a distorted perception of success over Boko Haram militancy in Nigeria. Continued militant attacks have highlighted the government’s propaganda in displaying exaggerated data regarding the success of counterinsurgency operations and falsely claiming the defeat of the militant group. This may, to a certain extent, reduce Buhari’s international and domestic credibility.

With Nigeria’s presidential elections slated to take place in 2019, such an approach by Buhari for the safe release of abductees is poised to become his legacy. To further add to his administration’s successes against the insurgency, following the Dapchi events, Buhari appears to have embarked towards an appeasement stance with the latest amnesty deal. It is likely that through these propositions Buhari seeks to strategically portray to the international community his efforts for a peaceful resolution in parallel to the continuation of counterinsurgency operations. Under these circumstances, it is likely that Buhari will attempt to negotiate with the militant group to reduce attacks in exchange for reduced military actions in the northeastern region.

However, the administration’s conciliatory attitude towards the militants may be perceived by some as weak, with negative implications particularly by security forces, which may have a detrimental impact on the fighting morale of the soldiers who are endangering their lives in battle. FORECAST: As such, any attempts by Buhari to negotiate with the militants to reduce attacks in light of the upcoming elections, as well as the latest amnesty deal, may add to Nigeria’s security agencies’ frustration concerning the ongoing nine-year long insurgency and weaken their determination to actively combat it. Additionally, Buhari’s administration is poised to receive substantial criticism from opposition political parties for their weakened stance towards the insurgency and their propaganda of exaggerating military successes, as evidenced by the opposition People’s Democratic Party’s (PDP) statement denouncing the Dapchi deal.

FORECAST: Buhari’s latest amnesty deal offered to Boko Haram is quite similar to an opportunity offered by former President Jonathan in 2013, which Boko Haram’s leader Abubakar Shekau outright declined. As such, it seems unlikely that Boko Haram will accept the latest deal, particularly given that the government does not seem to have any substantial negotiating leverage. Furthermore, the latest April 1 multi-pronged Boko Haram attack continues to highlight that the group remains capable of executing sophisticated large scale attacks in their traditional sphere of influence. Given the group’s resilience in remaining a viable threat in Nigeria’s northeastern region despite the large-scale counter-militancy measures, a persistence of the conciliatory approach by the government is liable to be detrimental to their interests.

Recommendations

Travel to Lagos, Abuja and Port Harcourt may continue while maintaining heightened vigilance and following heightened security protocols regarding criminal and militant activity.

We continue to advise against all travel to the northeastern Nigerian states of Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe, given the ongoing Boko Haram insurgency and extreme insecurity in the region.

We advise to avoid all travel to areas of Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, and Chad within the Lake Chad Region given the high risk of militancy.

New military campaign in North Sinai likely linked to upcoming March 2018 presidential elections – Egypt Analysis

Current Situation

On February 9, the Egyptian Armed Forces (EAAF) Spokesperson announced the commencement of a large-scale “comprehensive” military operation to “eliminate all terrorist elements” across the country, called “Operation Sinai 2018”, with special emphasis placed on the Sinai Peninsula, Nile Delta, and Western Desert. The Spokesperson also announced an increase of the country’s alert level due to the operations.

As part of the of the campaign, the Egyptian Air Force (EAF) intensified the frequency of its airstrikes targeting militant hideouts throughout North Sinai Governorate, especially in the Rafah-al-Arish-Sheikh Zuweid triangle and Central Sinai District. The Egyptian Navy increased its activity along Sinai’s coastal region, while heightened security protocols were recorded at ports and border crossings. Security forces also increased presence in the vicinity of vital infrastructure and installations. Reports from February 9 indicate that civilian Suez Canal crossings from mainland Egypt to the Sinai, including by vessel and through tunnels, have been closed to civilian traffic due to the military campaign.

On March 8, the EAAF Spokesperson stated that Operation Sinai 2018 had yielded the deaths of 105 Islamic State (IS)-affiliated Wilayat Sinai fighters and the arrests of hundreds of the group’s militants, and that 16 soldiers had also been killed since the beginning of the campaign. The Spokesperson also announced that the EAAF destroyed 1,907 hideouts and weapon storehouses.

Assessments & Forecast

The Egyptian government has achieved partial success in containing militancy threats over the past year, with a reduction in the overall number of attacks. However, the persistence, albeit reduced frequency, of attacks in North Sinai Governorate and mainland Egypt likely motivated this recent operation, demonstrating efforts to mitigate threats from multiple groups, particularly the IS-affiliate Wilayat Sinai. The large-scale attack at a mosque in North Sinai’s Bir al-Abd on November 24, 2017, which killed over 300 people, also likely triggered the operation, and it took a period of months to prepare and mobilize for the current operation.

However, considering the timing of its commencement and execution, the primary motivation for the military campaign is likely political and connected to the upcoming March 2018 presidential elections, in which President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi is the leading candidate. President al-Sisi likely initiated the operations in order to boost his status among the Egyptian populace and project an image of power, stability, and intensified efforts to tackle the threat of militancy. Al-Sisi also likely timed the operation to deflect domestic and international criticism away from the election’s perceived lack of legitimacy and toward the issue of counter-terrorism, following the withdrawal or arrest of most of his electoral opponents over the past several weeks. To a lesser but still significant degree, the operation was also likely launched to draw attention away from Egypt’s poor economic conditions and towards a different public issue, namely militancy, and measures taken by authorities to tackle it.

The operations also follow international media reports about Israeli airstrikes against Wilayat Sinai in North Sinai in recent years. The Egyptian government likely intends to use the operations to demonstrate their sovereignty over North Sinai Governorate and their ability to mitigate militant threats with their own forces. This is particularly likely in light of the heightened criticism regarding al-Sisi’s close cooperation with Israeli authorities vis-a-vis the threat of militancy stemming from Wilayat Sinai elements.

Strategically, the nationwide campaign aims largely at isolating Wilayat Sinai militants in North Sinai Governorate. The reported closure of Suez Canal crossings to the movement of civilians, as well as the intensified activity by the Egyptian Navy along the Sinai coastal region, are meant to prevent reinforcements and smugglers from aiding Wilayat Sinai militants, thus putting further pressure on the Sunni jihadist militant group in North Sinai Governorate. The heightened security measures in the vicinity of vital infrastructure and installations likely were put in place to prevent reprisal attacks by militants, which in turn, would embarrass the Egyptian authorities.

FORECAST: The EAAF will likely continue implementing a strategy aimed at further isolating Wilayat Sinai militants in their aforementioned strongholds of Central Sinai Distinct and the Rafah-al-Arish-Sheikh Zuweid triangle. By carrying out simultaneous assaults on these two areas, the EAAF likely seeks to fix militants in their positions, preventing them from reinforcing the two respective areas or conducting attacks to the rear of security forces. The intensified aerial bombardments are meant to hamper militant movements, which in turn, may impede their ability to regroup or conduct attacks in order to force the deployment of Egyptian troops away from the frontlines. Furthermore, tighter inspection is liable to be enforced between Egypt and Gaza at the Rafah border crossings.

Israel permitted Egypt to deploy a large amount of forces into Sinai, as according to the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty, Israeli permission is required for such a move. This highlights the increased coordination between the two countries, as they both perceived Wilayat Sinai as a strategic threat. In order to complicate and discourage the security coordination between the two countries, Wilayat Sinai may target southern Israel with rocket fire over the coming days and weeks. While in the short-term, the number of Wilayat Sinai attacks may decrease, given precedent of previous operations by the EAAF in North Sinai Governorate, over the coming months the Sunni jihadist militant group will likely renew its elevated activity in the region. The group will likely lower its profile in order to facilitate this, which would enable it to regroup and carry out multiple attacks against Egyptian security forces.

Recommendations

Travel to Cairo and Alexandria may continue while adhering to all security precautions regarding militancy and civil unrest. Consult with us for itinerary-based travel recommendations.

Avoid all travel to the North Sinai Governorate and border areas with Libya, Sudan, and Israel due to the persistent risk for militant attacks, kidnappings, and general lawlessness.

We further advise to avoid nonessential travel to the Southern Sinai Peninsula, while maintaining heightened vigilance in the Suez Canal Zone, the Upper Nile area, and the Nile Delta region due to an increased risk of unrest and the heightened risk of militant attacks. Before traveling to Sharm al-Sheikh, confirm that flight operations are continuing and have not been impacted by recent militant threats.

As a general security precaution, remain vigilant in areas surrounding and avoid the immediate vicinity of government installations, police stations, and religious centers, particularly churches, as these locations remain under elevated threat of militant attacks. When traveling in central squares, or in areas with persistent police deployments, avoid the immediate vicinity of security forces, particularly fixed traffic booths, as such personnel and facilities have increasingly come under attack by militant elements.