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Intercommunal clashes in Middle Belt Region grow to be main source of violence in country – Nigeria Analysis

Executive Summary

At least 1,980 people have been killed in intercommunal clashes between Fulani herdsmen and local farming communities across the Middle Belt Region, particularly in Adamawa, Benue, Kaduna, Plateau, and Taraba states, during the first half of 2018. This has led several of these states to implement “Anti-Open Grazing Laws” to restrict Fulani herders’ movement, further aggravating the conflict.

The conflict is multifaceted, making it one of the biggest challenges in Nigeria, not only in terms of security but for the social and national cohesion of the country. Due to the effects of climate change, the conflict has worsened, with herders have been pushed southward for longer periods of time, creating tensions with farming communities over scarce resources.

The lack of political will on the federal level to provide real solutions has further widened ethnic and religious divisions across Nigeria. President Muhammadu Buhari’s weak response and inability to tackle the country’s security challenges has led to some of his long-time allies abandoning the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) to form the Reformed – All Progressive Congress (R-APC), where they intend to present a joint candidate with the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

Given President Buhari’s weak political leverage, and his likely unwillingness to upset his northern grassroots supporters, the federal government is not expected to implement drastic policies to change the situation on the ground in the near future, and the conflict is likely to persist at a high pace.

We advise against all nonessential travel to outlying areas of the Middle Belt Region due to frequent intercommunal clashes involving Fulani herdsmen.

Current Situation

Several large-scale clashes and ambushes against villages have taken place across the Middle Belt Region over the last month including the killing of at least 86 people in clashes across several Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Plateau State on June 23. Likewise, 73 were killed in the border areas of Adamawa and Taraba states and another 50 in Taraba State on July 9 and 13 respectively.

At least 500 farmers have been killed, including 17 parishioners and two priests in a church, by suspected Fulani herdsmen across Benue State since the beginning of 2018. Likewise, tens of thousands of people have been displaced, with their houses burnt amid the violence between herdsmen and farmers in the states that implemented an “Anti-Open Grazing Law” in late 2017.

Overall, at least 1,980 people have been killed in intercommunal clashes between Fulani herdsmen and local farming communities across the Middle Belt Region, particularly in Adamawa, Benue, Kaduna, Plateau, and Taraba states, during the first half of 2018.

Security forces dispersed hundreds of Christian farmers protesting in front of Plateau’s Government House on June 27, denouncing the violence against their communities.

On July 10, 37 opposition parties including the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and a splinter faction of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the Reformed – All Progressives Congress (R-APC), agreed to present a sole candidate for the upcoming 2019 presidential elections in order to oust President Muhammadu Buhari.

Origins of the Conflict

While nomadic pastoralism is a phenomenon that has decreased considerably over the last few decades, it remains a common way of life among certain populations in Nigeria, particularly for about 20 percent of the 7.6 million ethnic Fulani in northern and central Nigeria. During the dry season in northern Nigeria, Fulani move south through traditional grazing paths seeking additional fertile land for their cattle. As a consequence, nomadic herders often compete for limited resources, such as water, with farmers of these areas, which has been a source of continued clashes between the communities.

Given the lack of security infrastructure in Nigeria’s rural areas, coupled with the intercommunal nature of the tensions, these clashes are often cyclical, where one attack by one community is likely to lead to a retaliatory raid by the other and vice versa. Nonetheless, traditionally, this violence did not catch the public and international spotlight, as they often resulted in minor death tolls given the employment of mostly cold weapons by both warring parties. Over the last few years, the death tolls associated with these clashes have exponentially increased. This is partially due to the massive proliferation of weapons that have flooded Nigeria as well as other sub-Saharan African countries, mostly originating from Libya following the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi and the country’s collapse. Thus, intercommunal clashes that were previously fought with cold weapons and hunting rifles now involve heavier weaponry by both migrating herders and vigilante groups established by farming communities. For example, in 2014, at least 1,229 people were killed in comparison to 63 in 2013.

Even though intercommunal clashes between pastoralist and Muslim farming communities do take place across northern Nigeria as well as in additional West African countries such as Niger and Mali, the religious aspect of the divide in Nigeria does aggravate the animosity between the parties. The vast majority of Fulani herdsmen are Muslim while farmers in Nigeria’s Middle Belt Region are largely Christian, a situation that fuels suspicions and adds an additional layer of complexity to conflict resolution. Ethnic and religious divides have long been one of the main fault lines evidenced across Nigeria, which is emboldened by the deep differences between the communities even at a political level. As such, while religion is not the main driver for the clashes, it certainly worsens the conflict.

Assessments & Forecast

The conflict between Fulani herdsmen and farmers is multifaceted, making it one of the biggest challenges in Nigeria, not only in terms of security but for the social and national cohesion of the country. Over recent years, this type of violence has surpassed the Boko Haram insurgency as the deadliest source of conflict affecting Nigeria. Although Boko Haram receives most of the global spotlight, intercommunal clashes have left more than 60,000 dead since 2001, in comparison with the 17,000 killed by Boko Haram militancy. The conflict has worsened for several reasons, with the greatest determinant being the growing scarcity of resources available. Herders traditionally migrated southward, seeking grazing lands and water for their cattle during the dry season. However, due to the effects of climate change, droughts and increasing desertification affecting northern and central Nigeria have pushed herders south for longer periods of time. In recent years, herders have also begun to migrate to southern Nigeria, often deviating from the Middle Belt, which makes them encounter communities not accustomed to their dynamics and makes tensions even more acute.

The effects of climate change are also exacerbated by the country’s explosive population growth, which has turned Nigeria into the most populous country in Africa with close to 200 million people. This has led to the subsequent growth of urban centers as well as an exponential increase in cultivated lands both by local farmers and agro-industries. These farms have encroached upon traditional grazing routes across the Middle Belt used by herdsmen, which has intensified their grievances as they cannot find high-quality grazing lands for their cattle.

In previous eras, these conflicts could be managed or mitigated by traditional rulers in rural Nigeria, who had once filled the vacuum of power left by the government in rural areas. However, this role has gradually eroded as their relevance has decreased, fueled both by modernization and the emergence of local political figures, who often attempt to create a system of patronage with local communities for their own purposes. Even as said politicians bid for further government presence in their constituencies, the Nigerian state presence across rural areas remains weak, thus not entirely filling the vacuum left by those traditional rulers. This ultimately emboldens the perpetuation of the violence between pastoralist and locals with little oversight.

In tandem, the lack of political will on the federal level to provide real solutions to the violence has exacerbated grievances amongst locals and further widened ethnic and religious divisions. In particular, President Muhammadu Buhari’s weak response has been widely perceived as biased in favor of Fulani herdsmen, mainly because Buhari is a Fulani himself. Neither the president nor the government have criticized or condemned the Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria (MACBAN), the most influential umbrella group advocating for Fulani herdsmen, for its inaction in ending the violence. This perceived soft stance comes in stark contrast to the federal government’s response toward other groups it views as disruptive, such as the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN) and the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), which face harsh crackdowns and military action. On the other hand, a broad spectrum of the Fulani populace in central and southern Nigeria have their own concerns, as many have felt stigmatized amid the rampant violence, which further alienates their youth and subsequently makes them lose confidence in the federal government.

FORECAST: As such, regardless of ethnic and religious affiliation, the ongoing intercommunal violence and the government’s lack of initiative toward solving the crisis is expected to have an acute political backlash, particularly as the 2019 presidential elections draw nearer. On July 4, citing Buhari’s inability to tackle the country’s security challenges, including the violence in the Middle Belt Region, long-time allies of President Buhari abandoned the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) and formed the Reformed-All Progressive Congress (R-APC). As of the time of writing, the R-APC has already secured the support of 60 APC congressmen and 30 APC senators, while announcing their intention to present a joint candidate with the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), among other political forces, with the sole purpose of removing Buhari from office.

On a local level, several states across the Middle Belt Region, including Benue and Taraba states, have implemented anti-grazing laws in a bid to answer their constituents’ complaints and the lack of decisive action on a federal level. These laws either forbid or severely restrict the movement and use of land by Fulani herdsmen in those states, thus increasing the animosity of Fulanis toward state authorities as well as local communities.
FORECAST: As such, and considering the increasing frustration amongst local farmers, additional states are likely to consider the implementation of similar anti-open grazing laws, further fueling the conflict. Several demonstrations by Fulani have taken place, as evidenced in Taraba state capital, Jalingo, in 2017, with MACBAN harshly criticizing what they perceived as the blatant stigmatization of their community. In turn, feeling emboldened by said laws, local communities have also taken a much more hardline stance vis-a-vis Fulani communities in their states, even attacking settlements of ethnic Fulani not engaged in herding, thus further aggravating the conflict.

FORECAST: Given the multifaceted character of the conflict, where deep and entrenched religious and ethnic divisions within Nigerian society further fuel a primarily resource-driven conflict, the violence is expected to continue unabated across the Middle Belt. Thus it will continue to represent the main source of violence in the country over the coming months. In this sense, and bearing in mind President Buhari’s weak political leverage and his likely unwillingness to upset his northern grassroots supporters, the federal government is not expected to implement drastic policies to change the situation on the ground. By the same token, and considering the approaching presidential election, even if the government would be willing to implement serious measures, it lacks the political support to provide a multilayered solution that would ease tensions between the warring communities.

Recommendations

Travel to Abuja, Lagos, and Port Harcourt may continue while maintaining heightened vigilance and following stringent security protocols regarding criminal and security threats.

We advise against all nonessential travel to outlying areas of the Middle Belt Region due to frequent intercommunal clashes involving Fulani herdsmen.