Tag Archives: Libya

The Middle East and North Africa In 2012: What Lies Ahead?

By Max Security’s Intelligence Department

The feelings of hope and opportunity initially evoked by the Arab Spring have evolved into fear that the region may be sliding into a new status quo of instability. We sweep the region from Morocco to Iran to determine that 2012 will be one of the most crucial years in the modern history of the Middle East.

The Maghreb

The Muslim Brotherhood’s recently formed Freedom and Justice Party holds a press conference. The FJP is slated to win nearly 40% of seats in Egypt’s first post-Mubarak parliament. (Bikyamasr)

While North Africa by and large experienced the most significant change from the Arab Spring uprisings, it would be a grave mistake to place the fate of these politically diverse set of nations into one. In Morocco, the people still have great respect for the region’s oldest monarchy, sentiment which prevented widespread unrest from engulfing the nation this past year. The recent victory of moderate Islamist factions in parliament forces the monarchy to balance between their wishes, while keeping Morocco an attractive address for foreign investment to keep the economy on its feet. While Morocco can be expected to remain relatively stable, a widening gap between rich and poor and growing unemployment only works to the favor of the liberal February 20 reformers and the outlawed Islamist Justice and Spirituality movement, which currently remain marginalized.

In Algeria, the situation is quite different. The country emerged unscathed from the Arab Spring, not out of any sort of respect for the military-backed government, but rather out of fears for a repeat of the country’s bloody civil war which is still fresh in the minds of most of the population. While stability prevailed in 2011, tensions are brewing beneath the surface as Algerians come to realize that they are indeed the last nation to tolerate a corrupt military dictatorship which has failed to provide both physical and economic security. The success of Islamist parties to the East and West has emboldened Algeria’s own conservative opposition to demand reforms ahead of the upcoming elections-slated for the Spring of 2012. Moreover Bouteflika’s ailing health places the military and its allies in a considerable predicament, as replacing Bouteflika without elections will only provide fuel to an increasingly disillusioned population. The loss of the Bouteflika regime would spell a considerable setback in North Africa’s war against Al Qaeda, which despite recent losses- still has its sights set on fomenting instability in Algeria.

Continue reading The Middle East and North Africa In 2012: What Lies Ahead? →

Understanding Algeria

By Dan R.

While its people face incredible hardship under a corrupt regime, Algeria’s bloody recent history remains in fresh in the minds of anyone seeking to rise up.

While much of North Africa has been swept by political or social changes, Algeria’s political system has remained virtually untouched, with its short-lived and decentralized protest movement failing to resonate with the population until now. Several factors have attributed to this relative calm.

Algerian leader Abdelaziz Bouteflika. (Echourouk)

Like many North African countries, Algeria was a French colony, however unlike many countries, Algeria fought for its independence in a bloody war that lasted 8 years. In part, the Algerian nationality was built and forged during this conflict. This level of nationalism rarely exists in the Arab world; it can be seen in Algeria and periodically in Egypt, as it is in direct contradiction to conservative Islamic beliefs.

In the late 80’s the Front de Libération Nationale (FLN) socialist faction was dominated the Algerian political system. Starting from 1987, the FLN’s influence began to wane as the economy, based on the production of crude oil and natural gas, collapsed due to a sharp decrease prices. In 1989 the FLN announced the formation of a new constitution which denounced socialism, promised freedom of speech and other personal freedoms. Continue reading Understanding Algeria →

Assad is No Moammar Gaddafi

By Jay R.

The minimal support provided to Syrian revolutionaries from abroad will only amount to a longer, bloodier conflict.

The Syrian uprising began nine months ago, when in March, thousands of pro-reform demonstrators took to the streets in Deraa to denounce the Assad regime. Since that time, thousands of civilians have been killed and the country has arguably declined into civil war.

syria troops — Troops on their way to Deraa in southern Syria.

Just a month before the streets of Deraa erupted, the world’s attention was on Benghazi. Libyans had also taken to the streets in similar fashion, who were likewise met with live ammunition by Ghaddafi’s forces. The events in Benghazi escalated to civil war in their own right; however the end of hostilities there has already arrived.

The primary reason for the end of Libyan hostilities was the overwhelming support that opposition forces received from the international community. It only took two weeks from the time the Libyan people demanded change in their country for the world to begin its assistance, when it froze Gaddafi’s and his inner circle’s assets, limited their travel, and referred the lot to the International Criminal Court. In just the following month, the United Nations approved a resolution to enforce a no-fly-zone, which included using “all necessary measures” to thwart attacks on the citizenry. The aforesaid resolution subsequently led to a new Libyan government, which was recognized by the United Nations, in just seven month’s time.

Meanwhile, across the Mediterranean, the Syrian uprising is entering its nine month and the disparity between the two revolutions is vast. Assad is still in power, and his efforts to quell the revolution in his country persist as unabated as scores of people are being killed every day. However, it must be noted that the Syrian opposition, as did the Libyan counterpart, formed its own National Council of rebel organizations. Continue reading Assad is No Moammar Gaddafi →

Business Travel to Tripoli: Doing it safe

By Max Security’s Intelligence Department

As Libya’s interim government pushes forward with its effort to establish sole authority over the country’s security apparatus, the country’s emerging market continues attract international corporate entities who wish to stake their claims on monetary potentials. However, the transitional government’s ability to restore security has been marred by ongoing inter-factional violence, an emerging black market, and other forms of civil unrest and lawlessness.

Ever since rebel forces swept into the capital, various militias have been deployed throughout the capital to maintain security as Gaddafi’s police force nearly crumbled. Many of these militiamen carry automatic weapons, with little training, making their actions unpredictable. These factions still control various parts of the city, maintaining checkpoints and conducting raids on those suspected as “Gaddafi Loyalists.” Continue reading Business Travel to Tripoli: Doing it safe →

Algeria is North Africa’s Last Line of Defense Against Islamic Extemism

By Daniel N.

Despite its repressive nature, Algeria’s Bouteflicka regime is the last remaining obstacle between Islamic extremists and the complete destabilization of North Africa.

While the world continues to focus on the implications of a destabilized Libya, Algeria has been working diligently to prevent a resurgent Al Qaeda from toppling its regime in its quest to install an Islamic Caliphate in the Maghreb region of North Africa. Since the Libyan conflict first broke out in February 2011, a wave of terror attacks has hit Algeria as the result of an increasingly porous border and the absence of Gaddafi, perhaps Bouteflicka’s most important ally in its war on terror.

For the past two decades, the secular regime of Abdelaziz Bouteflicka has been the target of local Islamic extremist groups that have recently extended their fight beyond Algeria, setting their sights on North Africa in its entirety. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) traces its roots back to a failed revolution attempt which began in 1992 when Algeria’s military government canceled the second round of parliamentary elections since it seemed evident that an Islamist coalition would take power. In the years that followed, Algeria descended into a bloody civil war as extremist groups led by the Armed Islamic Group (GIA) killed tens of thousands of civilians in their efforts to topple the government. Continue reading →