Israel: Recent incidents along Lebanese border reminder of ongoing tensions between the IDF, armed Lebanese factions (July 9, 2012)
Current Situation Recent events occurring along the Israeli-Lebanese border highlight the elevated tensions between the Israeli military and various armed forces in southern Lebanon.
On July 9, Israeli officials condemned a Lebanese construction project near the shared border, charging that the project intends to divert water from the Haztbani River. The Haztbani River supplies 25% of the water for Israel’s Jordan river, a major source of water for the country.
On the week of July 8, Lebanese Army troops patrolling their side of the border allegedly threatened Israeli patrols on the other side, reportedly aiming their weapons in their direction. A Lebanese commander was reportedly overheard dividing targets to his troops. The standoff was quelled after UN peacekeepers arrived at the scene.
As the 6th anniversary of the 2006 Lebanon War is set to be marked on July 12, Israeli officers have made numerous statements indicating that another outbreak of hostilities will result in widespread damage to southern Lebanon- Hezbollah’s primary operating area.
Assessments: Tensions with the Lebanese Army
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Assessments: Tensions with Hezbollah
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Strategic Analysis: Consequences of religious influences in the Syrian conflict
Shiite Muslims commemorate the Ashura holiday, the date marking the death of Hussein at the Battle of Karbala.
While discussing the bloodshed in Syria at a September 7 conference held in Turkey, Prime Minister Erdogan drew a chilling parallel. “What happened in Karbala 1,332 years ago is what is happening in Syria today,” he said, comparing the Syrian revolution to the most divisive event in Islamic history, the Battle of Karbala.
Those in the West with any interests in the region have much to learn from Erdogan’s history lesson. What was originally depicted as a popular uprising against tyranny is now undeniably a war for religious supremacy in the Middle East. In this war, those Syrians who originally took to the streets in their aspirations for democracy have become the only guaranteed losers.
In the year 680 AD, Hussein Ibn Ali, grandson of the Prophet Mohammed and 70 of his followers confronted 1,500 fighters from the Umayyad Caliphate in present day Iraq. Hussein had embarked on a crusade to wrest control of the caliphate from his archrival Yazid I, only to be slaughtered along with his family. Hussein’s followers would eventually form the Shiite sect of Islam, and remain locked in a bitter rivalry with Yazid’s fellow Abu Bakr supporters, whose descendants comprise the Sunni sect. Continue reading Strategic Analysis: Consequences of religious influences in the Syrian conflict→
Intelligence Analysis: Who will fight for Iran’s nuclear program?
Last week Iran sent a high-level envoy, Saeed Jalili, on a particularly controversial public-relations tour to Lebanon and Syria, the most explosive corner of the region. After ruffling feathers during a Beirut stopover, Mr. Jalili traveled to Damascus to meet with President Bashar al- Assad, where he declared the ties between Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah to be an “axis of resistance.”
Israeli pilots prepare for flight. Iran has since warned of massive retaliation in response to an Israeli attack on it’s nuclear facilities
Jalili is an iconic figure, whose position as the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council also affords him the role of chief negotiator for Iran’s contentious nuclear program. Amidst a deadlock in negotiations and a rehashing of threatening rhetoric, Jalili’s visit was meant to remind the Israelis that Iran’s proxies on Israel’s northern doorstep remain ready and willing to plunge the region into chaos if Israel strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities.
It appears however, that Iran’s allies in the eastern Mediterranean may not be as keen about going to war for the ayatollahs as Tehran would like – and the Israelis know it.
Strategic Analysis: Don’t Hold Your Breath For Iran Sanctions
On July 25, in a rare public acknowledgement, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei shed light on the detrimental impact of international sanctions on Iranian society. During a meeting with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his political rival, Speaker Ali Larijani, Khamenei called for an end to infighting over Iran’s deteriorating economy, stressing the need for national unity.” The reality is that there are problems, however you must not blame them on this or that party,” Khamenei was quoted as saying by Fars News Agency. “Instead you must solve those problems with unity.”
Iran has continued its nuclear progress despite sanctions.
Pundits and politicians in the West should be in no rush to laud this admittance as a sign that the Iranian regime’s resilience in pursuit of nuclear capability has begun to waver. For those in Jerusalem grappling with a historic decision, sanctions have failed to achieve their baseline goal- suspension of the Iranian nuclear program. Continue reading Strategic Analysis: Don’t Hold Your Breath For Iran Sanctions→
Intelligence Analysis: The Syrian Spillover into Lebanon
A Sunni gunman fires his machine gun during clashes in northern Tripoli (AP)
Nine Lebanese were killed after days of clashes in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli between long-time bitter foes, the Sunni dominated Bab al-Tabbaneh and the Alawite Jabal Mohsen neighborhoods. Clashes and tensions in Tripoli are not new and represent persistent volatility in Lebanon, as well as in the region, both in terms of politics and security.
The Sunnis of Bab al-Tabbaneh, a hotbed of Salafism, denounce the ‘heretic’ Alawite regime of Assad and decry his killing of their fellow Sunni-Muslims in Syria. The tiny, yet well- armed, Alawite community of Jabal Mohsen however, remains a steadfast supporter of the Syrian president. With just a single street, ironically named the Syria Street, separating them, the current escalation highlights not only a localized spillover of the Syrian war into Lebanon, but the overarching problem with Lebanon itself – the continued presence of sectarian militias.
Israel-Cyprus relations: Revolutionary alliance or negotiating tactic?
By Dan R.
The discovery of natural gas off the shores of Cyprus and Israel in the eastern Mediterranean has marked the beginning of a new chapter in the Middle East conflict. Reports began to surface last week, claiming that Israeli Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, will discuss the stationing of Israeli fighter jets at a Cypriot airbase on his visit to the island nation on February 16. If such reports prove to be accurate, the event has the potential to be a revolutionary strategic alliance. However, the aforementioned discussions may in fact be purely an Israeli negotiating tactic in an effort to bridge the rift between it and its former ally Turkey.
The Middle East is widely known as the staging ground for the Arab-Israeli conflict. Yet, there is a lesser known conflict, greatly overshadowed by that between Israel and her Arab neighbors – that which involves Turkey and Cyprus. The conflict between Turkey and Cyprus, like the Arab-Israeli, also has a history of bloody confrontation on religion, ethnicity, territory and recognition. However, the aspect that reaches headlines above all others is the ongoing dispute over natural gas deposits that lay off the Cypriot southern coast. The discovery launched a thus far rhetorical battle over drilling rights between Greek Cyprus and Turkey as the patron of the Greek Republic’s breakaway Turkish Cypriot counterpart.
American-operated natural gas exploration site Noble Ferrington
Israel has developed and maintained several natural gas drilling and pumping platforms in the eastern Mediterranean Sea in its Exclusive Economic Zone. Moreover, Israeli companies, such as Delek, own a significant share of drilling platforms in Cyprus. Israel thus, likely sees the natural gas reserves as a strategic asset that is vital to ensure Israel’s economic and energy independence.
Israel is well known for its determination and dedication with regard to the protection of its interests positioned outside its borders. That said, the stationing of a permanent air force operation base on foreign soil would essentially be a revolution in Israeli military affairs. If the reports are true, this will be the first time that Israel will deploy IDF airmen outside the borders of Israel (not including Palestinian territories), a step that would likely require legislative action.
When examining the tactical, operational, and strategic military benefits for a deployment of fighter jets in Cyprus, one would have to assess the constant parameters, like the distance from drilling and pumping platforms, coupled with reaction and flight time. Upon their inspection, one would discover that the distance to such drilling installations from either the Cypriot or Israeli air bases is negligible. The similar distances thus make the disproportion in reaction and flight time only a matter of a few seconds, and therefore, providing no significant tactical, operational, or strategic benefits. Continue reading Israel-Cyprus relations: Revolutionary alliance or negotiating tactic?→
Syrian Opposition Takes a Hit From Damascus Bombings
By Daniel N.
Regardless of who was responsible, the recent suicide attacks bolster the position of the Assad Dictatorship.
Since the uprising began in March 2011, President Bashar Al Assad has attempted to brand the Syrian opposition as “terrorists” in order to justify his brutal crackdown. The carnage and mass casualties of Friday’s twin suicide bombing attacks may have done just that, throwing the spotlight on the possibility of extremist infiltration into the Syrian opposition.
Mourners attend a funeral for those killed in Friday’s bombings. (SANA)
Friday’s carnage unfolded when at least two explosive-laden vehicles were detonated near security facilities in the heart of the capital. Plumes of smoke could be seen from throughout the capital, while gunfire reportedly rang out amidst the bedlam that followed. Indeed, the perpetrators had managed to smash the relative calm enjoyed by citizens of the Syrian capital, fomenting the kind of chaos more commonly seen in Kabul or Baghdad. Immediately after the explosions, the state media rushed to attribute to the attacks to Al Qaeda-affiliated jihadists, pointing to a recent report that operatives had penetrated its territory through Lebanon. Continue reading Syrian Opposition Takes a Hit From Damascus Bombings→
Travel Security Analysis: Business travel to Lebanon: Is it safe?
By Max Security’s Intelligence Department
For decades, perceptions of Lebanon have been as conflicted as the country itself. The capital, Beirut has been dubbed by some as a focal point for terrorism and civil unrest, while others maintain that its vibrant culture and western lifestyle rival that of many European capitals. For the past decade, Lebanon has succeeded in restoring its pre-civil war glory, becoming one of the eastern-Mediterranean’s primary business and tourism hubs. Despite these advancements, the same sectarian and political divides which fueled years of armed conflict continue to cast a shadow over stability in Lebanon, threatening a complete collapse of stability at a moment’s notice. In July 2006, armed conflict between the Israeli military and the Hezbollah militia resulted in widespread damage the Beirut, as well as transportation and infrastructure throughout the country. In 2008, Hezbollah and other Shia factions staged an armed takeover of Beirut in a matter of hours after the government threatened to dismantle its telecommunications network at the city’s international airport.
Recent statements and actions emanating from the Islamic Republic point to its increasing isolation and desperation.
On October 12, the Kuwaiti newspaper al-Qabas reported that Iran had informed Hezbollah that it would cut funding to the Shia militia by forty percent. The source cited the cutback as a result of growing economic sanctions and a diversion of resources to help Bashar Assad in his crackdown on the pro-reform movement. This action, along with several other events suggests that Iran’s regional standing may be eroding rapidly.
When the Arab Spring first erupted, it seemed apparent that Iran would gain an advantage over the West, with the first revolutions taking aim against unpopular, western-backed dictatorships. Tunisia’s Ben Ali, Yemen’s Saleh, Bahrain’s Khalifa, and Egypt’s Mubarak were all known as western allies and “moderate” leaders, and the popular uprisings against them proved to be an embarrassment to US foreign policy.
If at any point it feels that its survival is at stake, Hezbollah will not hesitate to unleash chaos and ignite the Lebanese powder keg.
Following the 2006 Lebanon War, Hezbollah was widely regarded as one of the last eminent Arab forces to successfully confront the Israelis – and to seemingly defeat them on many fronts. The powerful images of destroyed Merkava tanks and Israeli funerals provided the predominately Sunni Muslim world with a new hero, despite the fact that Hezbollah is a Shi’ite organization and widely considered to be an Iranian puppet. Even though the war devastated Lebanon, Hezbollah utilized the political capital it gained from the prisoner swap with Israel to topple the pro-western government then led by Sa’ad Hariri, forcing his party into the opposition.
However, the events of the Arab Spring tarnished Hezbollah’s image in Lebanon and the Arab world. Hezbollah’s staunch, vocal support for Syrian President Bashar Assad throughout his brutal crackdown on pro-reform protesters suddenly placed the organization on the side of the oppressor. Of course, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had no choice – Syria is one of his primary suppliers of weapons, finances and support. It has been disclosed by the Syrian opposition that Hezbollah fighters are actually assisting in suppressing demonstrations, quite possibly in collusion with members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. Continue reading All Eyes on Hezbollah→
