Tag Archives: Intelligence

Business Travel to Tripoli: Doing it safe

By Max Security’s Intelligence Department

As Libya’s interim government pushes forward with its effort to establish sole authority over the country’s security apparatus, the country’s emerging market continues attract international corporate entities who wish to stake their claims on monetary potentials. However, the transitional government’s ability to restore security has been marred by ongoing inter-factional violence, an emerging black market, and other forms of civil unrest and lawlessness.

Ever since rebel forces swept into the capital, various militias have been deployed throughout the capital to maintain security as Gaddafi’s police force nearly crumbled. Many of these militiamen carry automatic weapons, with little training, making their actions unpredictable. These factions still control various parts of the city, maintaining checkpoints and conducting raids on those suspected as “Gaddafi Loyalists.” Continue reading Business Travel to Tripoli: Doing it safe →

Erdogan’s Cypriot Quagmire

Turkish warships on maneuvers in the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey has since backtracked on recent threats against Cypriot natural resource exploration.

By Jay R.

As the Arab Spring has forced successive leaders from their posts, Turkey has been positioning itself to be the hegemon of influence in the region. This effort can be seen through the visits of Prime Minister Erdogan to Egypt and Libya, in addition to his nation’s strong stance against Assad’s Allawite regime in Syria.

Turkey has also been the sole voice of contention with regard to Cyprus’s natural gas exploration efforts in the eastern Mediterranean – a voice that has threatened a gamut of responses from the severing of its ties with the European Union to an all out attack on Cyprus’ drilling installations. This last stance however may have been the bite that was too much for Turkey and quite possibly the reasoning behind its recently softened position on the issue.

Turkish-Cypriot relations persist in contradiction to the rest of the world, as it is the only nation that recognizes the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, while not acknowledging the Greek-administered Republic of Cyprus. This lone fact has led to the espousal of anti-Greek Cypriot rhetoric – rhetoric that seems to have backed Turkey into a corner of which it is now trying to break out of.

Continue reading Erdogan’s Cypriot Quagmire →

Why Turkey is Betting Big on the Syrian Uprising

By Daniel N.

A new Syrian regime sympathetic to Turkey, would plug the last whole in Turkey’s quest for regional hegemony.

The Syrian conflict is entering its tenth month with Assad’s grip on power largely intact. As opposed to Libya, Egypt, and even Yemen, the international community has been largely reluctant to pressure the Assad regime to end the violence, while the opposition itself has struggled to gain legitimacy amongst the Arab League as a viable alternative current leadership.

Turkish premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

To their credit, the West and the Arab world are justified in their hesitation to intervene in Syria. Unlike Libya’s Qaddafi, Assad is closely backed by Iran, as well as Lebanon’s most powerful militia, Hizbullah. In addition, Syria’s sharp sectarian divides between Allawites, Sunni’s, and Kurds, threaten a post-revolution civil war on Iraq’s western border.

Needless to say, the exiled Syrian National Council (SNC) seems unconnected to events taking place within the country, unable to influence the insurgent Free Syrian Army, which has overtaken the spotlight from the opposition’s peaceful protest campaign. Amidst the hesitation of the Arab world and the west to take any real action, Turkey has emerged as the most outspoken critic of the Assad Regime, despite the previously warm ties enjoyed by the two nations.

Since the conflict first erupted in Syria’s rural towns, the Turkish government, let by Premier Recep Tayyep Erdogan, has constantly called for Assad to step down, pushed for sanctions, and even hinted at military intervention in the form of a “Humanitarian buffer zone.” In addition to hosting the Syrian National Council, it is widely rumored that insurgents from the Free Syrian Army are staging their attacks from Turkish territory under the knowledge of the military.

Despite the risks, Turkey above all other nations stands to benefit from regime change in Syria. Since the days of the Ottoman Empire, Syria has served as the Turk’s gateway to the Arab world, its territory constantly remaining firmly within the Empire’s grip as it grew and shrank in size elsewhere. Continue reading Why Turkey is Betting Big on the Syrian Uprising →

Suicide Terrorism and Regional Autonomy: The Next Status Quo of Stability?

By Jay R.

Iraq has no doubt been plagued by security deficiencies throughout the last nine years of war, which have been capitalized on by both Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias alike. The attacks carried out by both parties have been frequently reported on in the media, making any Westerner think twice before visiting the country. Indeed, Iraq remains one of the world’s most dangerous travel destinations. But what needs special attention is that Iraq has the potential to be a stabilizing force in the Middle East amidst the many nations in its periphery that are attempting to rebuild themselves after popular revolution, or are still yet to go through the process.

Prime Minister al-Malaki meets with tribal leaders. Ongoing efforts for regional autonomy have called into question the viability of a strong central government.

Iraq is clearly going through some ‘growing pains’. It has a relatively weak central government which struggles to maintain a unified country with Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite provinces all desiring autonomous status. However, the central government has been claiming its power of late by arresting and expelling destabilizing elements that have alleged loyalties to the former Saddam-regime. It is going further by imposing restrictions on international companies who choose to ink deals with provincial governorates as opposed to Baghdad, thereby asserting itself as the nation’s sole dealer of oil and infrastructure contracts.

Oil and infrastructure; what will likely propel Iraqi GDP into double digits for consecutive years. These two elements are being seized quickly by a plethora of corporate entities looking to stake their claims on the emerging Iraqi economy. Iraq has the potential to take over Iran as the world’s second largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia. This small fact alone will almost guarantee the heavy influx of investments into Iraq in order to support the reconstruction of its oil industry.

The everyday Iraqi is frustrated with the government’s pace in rebuilding infrastructure. Protests to this regard occur almost on a daily basis. However, what do not seem to be appearing in these demonstrations are calls for the overthrowing of government. Iraq, when compared to its neighbors, is seasoned when it comes to holding free elections and its populace knows it. Iraqis by and large are a very proud people, with a proud history and may put aside their sectarian differences and work to solidify the position they believe Iraq can achieve. Continue reading Suicide Terrorism and Regional Autonomy: The Next Status Quo of Stability? →

Is Iran Cornered?

By: Daniel N.

Recent statements and actions emanating from the Islamic Republic point to its increasing isolation and desperation.


On October 12, the Kuwaiti newspaper al-Qabas reported that Iran had informed Hezbollah that it would cut funding to the Shia militia by forty percent. The source cited the cutback as a result of growing economic sanctions and a diversion of resources to help Bashar Assad in his crackdown on the pro-reform movement. This action, along with several other events suggests that Iran’s regional standing may be eroding rapidly.

When the Arab Spring first erupted, it seemed apparent that Iran would gain an advantage over the West, with the first revolutions taking aim against unpopular, western-backed dictatorships. Tunisia’s Ben Ali, Yemen’s Saleh, Bahrain’s Khalifa, and Egypt’s Mubarak were all known as western allies and “moderate” leaders, and the popular uprisings against them proved to be an embarrassment to US foreign policy.