Tag Archives: Intelligence assessment

War in Gaza: Sooner Rather Than Later?

By Ron G.

Unfortunately for Hamas, the Gaza Strip remains a negligible pawn on the Middle East chessboard, a playing card to be used by regional powers when it suits them most. 

Tension in southern Israel remains high after the Israeli Air Force targeted a smuggling tunnel and another terror-related facility in the Gaza Strip following the fire of four Kassam rockets into Southern Israel on December 28. The recent exchange of fire was triggered by the targeted killing of two militants in the Gaza Strip on December 27, who according to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) were en-route to commit a terror attack along the country’s southern border with Egypt. At least one of the militants killed in the raid was reportedly an Islamic Jihad member.

Islamic Jihad militants march in Rafah.

Until now, the Islamic Jihad’s response has been  relatively mild. In previous instances, the militant group responded by firing larger salvos of rockets into Israel, and to greater distances. The mild response can be attributed to a number of factors. First and foremost, the group has suffered serious losses in its recent skirmishes with Israel, especially during the months of August, September and October. Second, the Islamic Jihad is being restrained by Hamas, who controls the Gaza Strip and has a low interest in escalating the situation at this point. Lastly the group is being pressured by both Fatah and Hamas to avoid an escalation at a time when reconciliation talks between Palestinian factions are underway.

Since  the cessation of operation Cast Lead in 2009, both Israel and Gaza-based militants have upheld an unspoken status quo. In this new reality, sporadic rocket fire into the area surrounding the Gaza Strip was largely tolerated, with each such incident met with a limited IDF response. Every violation of this status quo has led to a temporary and localized escalation. These exchanges usually included bouts of more intensive rocket fire into Israel’s southern cities, answered with more costly targeted attacks by the Israeli Air Force against more sensitive targets in the Gaza strip.  Continue reading War in Gaza: Sooner Rather Than Later?

Safe Travel in Cairo: Debunking the Myths

By Max Security’s Travel Security Department

While the situation in Cairo isn’t as bad as the media makes it out to be, the reality has changed drastically since Mubarak’s ousting. 

Cairo’s Khan Al Khalili Market. Touristed areas like these have become havens for illegal peddling given  an increasingly limited police presence.

In the past weeks, media coverage on Egypt has focused on the plight of a select group of protesters who took to the streets of Downtown Cairo to combat teargas-firing government troops with rocks and Molotov cocktails. Tahrir Square, Mohammed Mahmoud Street, and the rest of central Cairo were made to seem as if the entire city had been engulfed in a battle royal of tear gas and black smoke. While even the average Cairene will tell you not to go near Downtown, the rest of the city remains largely unaffected by ongoing political unrest, with locals making every effort to return the capital to a sense of normality. While the effects of political turmoil may have been hyped, Cairo has become especially hazardous in recent months, and there are a number of dangers that still pose a risk to the unsuspecting visitor.

Depending on your luck, traveling to Cairo can be a roller coaster ride right from the get-go. Cairo’s international airport itself has been the scene of various scuffles relating to just about every contentious topic in the Egyptian discourse. Labor related sit-ins, fighting between supporters and opponents of the Syrian regime, and frustration over the general disorder and overcrowding at the arrivals hall have commonly resulted with the intervention of baton-wielding military police.  Continue reading Safe Travel in Cairo: Debunking the Myths

Syrian Opposition Takes a Hit From Damascus Bombings

By Daniel N.

Regardless of who was responsible, the recent suicide attacks bolster the position of the Assad Dictatorship.

Since the uprising began in March 2011, President Bashar Al Assad has attempted to brand the Syrian opposition as “terrorists” in order to justify his brutal crackdown. The carnage and mass casualties of Friday’s twin suicide bombing attacks may have done just that, throwing the spotlight on the possibility of extremist infiltration into the Syrian opposition.

Mourners attend a funeral for those killed in Friday’s bombings. (SANA)

Friday’s carnage unfolded when at least two explosive-laden vehicles were detonated near security facilities in the heart of the capital. Plumes of smoke could be seen from throughout the capital, while gunfire reportedly rang out amidst the bedlam that followed. Indeed, the perpetrators had managed to smash the relative calm enjoyed by citizens of the Syrian capital, fomenting the kind of chaos more commonly seen in Kabul or Baghdad. Immediately after the explosions, the state media rushed to attribute to the attacks to Al Qaeda-affiliated jihadists, pointing to a recent report that operatives had penetrated its territory through Lebanon.  Continue reading Syrian Opposition Takes a Hit From Damascus Bombings

The Saudi Confederacy Proposal: Have the lines been drawn?

By  Jay R.

The agreement of nearly every Arab gulf state to the Saudi’s confederacy proposal highlights their concerns over the Islamic Republic’s pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Gulf nation leaders meet at a GCC conference in Riyadh. (SPA)

When the Arab peoples aligned with the British against their Ottoman rulers during the First World War, they did so under British assurances given to King Faisal that in return, the Arabs would receive their independence in the form of their own sovereign kingdom. The kingdom was to span from Turkey’s southern border in the north to the Arabian Sea in the south, and bound by Persia in the east to the Mediterranean Sea in the west. These Arab aspirations were dashed, however, when they discovered the Sykes-Pikot treaty, in which Britain and France had secretly agreed to divide the Arabian territorial spoils amongst themselves.

It is largely because of this British-French agreement that the borders of the greater Middle East are abundant with unnaturally straight lines. There have been previous attempts by these nations to break these perceived artificial boundaries, most notably by Egypt and Syria with their formation of the United Arab Republic, and the two’s confederation with North Yemen to form the United Arab States. Throughout these attempts, which took place from 1958 to 1961, there were even hopes of Iraq joining their ranks. However, the experiment was short lived as Gammal Abdul Nasser, the Egyptian leader over the confederation, failed to institute a fitting political system for the new administration, resulting in Syria’s secession through military coup, and the Republic’s ultimate demise. Continue reading The Saudi Confederacy Proposal: Have the lines been drawn?

Egypt’s Elections: The SCAF’s Last Chance?

By Daniel N.

With Islamist’s hands tied by their ongoing success in parliamentary elections, the army has one last chance to secure its influence in Egypt’s future government before it’s too late.

Last week, a ranking SCAF official held a highly unusual press conference exclusively with foreign correspondents. In what was widely perceived to be a message to the West, the official called the recent election results into question and stated that the SCAF would maintain oversight over the drafting of a future constitution.

While less than one month ago the same issue sparked mass demonstrations, Islamists groups including the Muslim Brotherhood have remained largely silent in the face of these provocative statements. The SCAF now has a window of opportunity to press ahead with efforts to secure its influence in a future constitution, leaving Islamists with the choice of disrupting the election process or allowing the promise of an Islamist Egypt to slip from their grasp.

A military officer meets with protesters in Tahrir Square.(Reuters) The SCAF has since come under scrutiny for its attempts to influence the drafting of the constitution.

Ever since the March 2011 constitutional referendum, the SCAF’s insistence on influencing the makeup of the future constitution has fueled tensions in the country, most recently with Egypt’s powerful Islamist factions. This tension came to a boiling point in November, when the SCAF-backed Sharaf government refused to give ground on the implementation of “Supra-Constitutional Principles”, sparking mass protests by the Muslim Brotherhood, which eventually evolved into the nationwide unrest which nearly compromised parliamentary elections. These principles, which would have effectively implanted boundaries on the power of any future Islamist-led parliament, have until now remained the SCAF’s tool to ensure Egypt as a secular state, as well as autonomy in deciding the military budget.

The results of the first round of parliamentary elections has however, reignited fears both within Egypt and around the world of the possibility of an Islamist takeover, with both moderate and Salafist parties garnering 60% of the vote. As the second and third rounds of elections scheduled to take place in rural areas of Egypt, there is a high likelihood that these parties will only secure more and more seats in the future parliament. Liberal parties who once opposed the SCAF’s encroachment on Egypt’s future governance, now find themselves marginalized with the realization that the military is now the best chance they have at securing a secular and democratic future for Egypt. In addition, the prospect of an Islamist victory may also have swayed the West, which just three weeks ago joined protesters in Tahrir Square in calls for a transition of power to a civilian government. Continue reading Egypt’s Elections: The SCAF’s Last Chance?

Dissecting Egypt’s Islamist Victory

By Daniel N.

Election results show that Egypt’s future rests solely in hands of conservative Islam.

Had he been alive today, Muslim Brotherhood founder Hassan al Banna would have been proud. Nearly 83 years since its founding, it appears as though the Islamist organization’s patience has finally paid off, after the group came away as favorites from Egypt’s first round of parliamentary elections. While the elections still have two more rounds of polling in various governorates of the country, the preliminary results of the first round which was held in Egypt’s largest population centers of Cairo and Alexandria are a telling indicator of things to come.

After polls closed on November 30, initial results estimate that Islamist parties have captured 120 of the 168 seats up for grabs in the first round of elections. The Brotherhood, represented by its Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) claimed 40 percent of votes, while ultra-conservative Salafist groups came in second with 20 percent. The Egypt Bloc, a coalition of secular and Coptic Christian parties originally assembled to challenge the Islamists, came in third, beating out the long time favorite liberal Wafd party.

Continue reading Dissecting Egypt’s Islamist Victory

Algeria is North Africa’s Last Line of Defense Against Islamic Extemism

By Daniel N.
Despite its repressive nature, Algeria’s Bouteflicka regime is the last remaining obstacle between Islamic extremists and the complete destabilization of North Africa.
While the world continues to focus on the implications of a destabilized Libya, Algeria has been working diligently to prevent a resurgent Al Qaeda from toppling its regime in its quest to install an Islamic Caliphate in the Maghreb region of North Africa. Since the Libyan conflict first broke out in February 2011, a wave of terror attacks has hit Algeria as the result of an increasingly porous border and the absence of Gaddafi, perhaps Bouteflicka’s most important ally in its war on terror.
For the past two decades, the secular regime of Abdelaziz Bouteflicka has been the target of local Islamic extremist groups that have recently extended their fight beyond Algeria, setting their sights on North Africa in its entirety. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) traces its roots back to a failed revolution attempt which began in 1992 when Algeria’s military government canceled the second round of parliamentary elections since it seemed evident that an Islamist coalition would take power. In the years that followed, Algeria descended into a bloody civil war as extremist groups led by the Armed Islamic Group (GIA) killed tens of thousands of civilians in their efforts to topple the government.  Continue reading Algeria is North Africa’s Last Line of Defense Against Islamic Extemism