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Cartel Threats to Business and Travel: El Bajio’s industrial development attracts the CJNG – Mexico Analysis

Executive Summary:

  • The El Bajio region in the west and north-central Mexico houses the major industrial centers for automotive parts in the country, which have primarily driven manufacturing growth over the past decade, as well as increasing agribusiness.
  • Organized criminal groups have shifted sights to diversify into and target various agricultural and manufacturing industries in recent years, especially during the pandemic.
  • This trend is expected to worsen the operating environment due to the extreme risk of violence and disruptions to business activity in the absence of an adequate security response.
  • Essential business travel to Mexico’s industrial center can continue while remaining cognizant of international travel advisories and the persistent risk of violence stemming from organized criminal activity.

This is the first in a series of analyses explaining and forecasting the cartel-related risks posed to business and travel in Mexico, with future reports focusing on border cities, ports, and popular tourist destinations.

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Current Situation

  • The Bajio region of west and north-central Mexico, which includes parts of Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacan, Queretaro, San Luis Potosi, and Zacatecas, has been the major driver of industrial growth in the country over the past decade.
  • Areas in the Bajio region have also emerged as hotspots for organized criminal activity, serving as the headquarters for major groups prior to the industrialization wave. The Michoacan-based La Familia Michoacana (LFM), Guanajuato-based SRLC, and Jalisco-headquartered CJNG are the primary cartels engaged in various turf wars directly as well as through proxies and allies.
  • The fast-growing Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) has now established a presence in all states of the Bajio region. Turf wars with the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel (SRLC) continue, although security operations targeting this group have weakened it significantly.
  • These groups have sought to target industry and critical infrastructure in recent years as a means to diversify from solely focusing on drug trafficking revenue, which declined somewhat due to increased cross-border operations. For instance, the SRLC is known to rely mainly on oil theft for the black market and extortion against state-owned oil company PEMEX’s assets.
  • In June 2020, authorities rounded up 26 suspected members of the SRLC in the state capital of Celaya in Guanajuato, including leader ‘El Marro’s’ mother, sister, and girlfriend. This prompted a wave of intense retaliation throughout the year, including public shootouts, attacks on law enforcement, and sieges of stronghold areas. Despite the eventual arrest of El Marro in August 2020, the SRLC has continued its wave of violence, mainly stemming from an intense turf war with the CJNG, which has struggled to take control of Guanajuato.
  • In February 2020, the CJNG announced their arrival in San Luis Potosi state with a social media video featuring heavily armed masked men warning other groups to stay away, as well as alleging that Police Chief Jose Guadalupe Castillo Celestino was in charge of the sale of drugs in the state capital.
  • In November 2019, federal authorities froze 533 bank accounts linked to the CJNG in the Bajio region. 53 accounts linked to the still-at-large leader of the CJNG, ‘El Mencho’, were also frozen.

El Bajio


  • Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, Queretaro, and San Luis Potosi agreed to form a new manufacturing region called the Central Bajio Corridor in November 2018, with shared infrastructure, investment, and employment policies. Long-term cooperation between the states will also extend to security, tourism, transport and social development, among other areas.
  • Overall, the El Bajio region recorded a 47.2 percent increase in production between 2013-2018. Investment in the area remains robust in activities such as logistics, e-commerce, financial services, and manufacturing, specifically in the automotive industry.
  • Reports from 2020 indicate that the pandemic did not significantly affect rental prices in the region, indicating that investors continue to hold high levels of confidence in the growth potential of the area.
  • Apart from industry, the Bajio region is also very fertile, with several export-oriented farms centered in the region, particularly in the multimillion-dollar avocado belt of Michoacan, which cartels refer to as ‘green gold’. Instances of cartels attempting to take over farms, extort farmers, and target indigenous land reserves in the area have been increasing over the past few years.

Manufacturing Units in El Bajio Corridor

Assessments & Forecast

Rapid expansion of industry, foreign firms to continue attracting cartels

  1. The increasing availability of a well-educated workforce from nearby Mexico City and the State of Mexico, as well as the ease of doing business in El Bajio due to policies designed to attract foreign investment, will ensure that the region remains a popular destination for foreign firms to headquarter Mexico-based industrial operations and house ex-pat workers.
  2. Given the systemic issue of public corruption in local police forces, businesses are also unlikely to be able to rely solely on state and national officials to secure their assets. Despite the pandemic and its purported effects on disrupting criminal activity, states like Guanajuato did not record a significant decline in homicides in 2020, indicating the continued threat posed by organized crime groups.
  3. In addition, as seen in Guerrero in 2018, when major American beverage companies were forced out of production facilities due to extortion threats from drug trafficking groups, the possibility of recognizable international brands being specifically targeted remains high. These are usually targeted for extortion, protection fees, kidnappings, and intimidatory shootouts.
  4. With this, pandemic-related slowdowns and a change in working patterns in the near term may lead to fertile ground for organized criminal groups to capitalize on reduced staffing at manufacturing and storage facilities for break-ins and thefts of materials and goods. Such a trend has emerged in other areas of Latin America during the pandemic, as disruptions to supply chains and drop in demand mean such goods are often in storage or holding locations for longer.
  5. As seen in various Mexican cities during the pandemic, well-organized cartels have also emerged as a viable, faster, and more efficient alternative to local government when it comes to distribution of scarce resources such as food and medicines. With the faith in all levels of government and big business further undermined by this two-pronged carrot-and-stick approach pursued by organized criminal groups, poorer locals are likely to be easier to recruit or bribe to aid in their operations.
  6. FORECAST: With the recent legalization of marijuana in Mexico on March 10 potentially seen as a precursor to further reductions of drug trafficking revenues, coupled with the pandemic-related border restrictions, the CJNG and other major groups will likely focus on diversifying revenue and capitalize on this industrial growth. Given El Bajio’s location between a number cartels’ strongholds and its increasing development, a continuing uptick in illicit activities, including kidnappings of both local and foreign workers, extortion, and attacks on buildings and installations is likely to be witnessed over the coming months and years.

Sources of Income for Cartels


Cartels to target agricultural industry, local communities with high chance of violent retaliation

  1. Local farming communities in Michoacan and other states have persistently been targeted by various organized crime groups seeking illicit gain from export revenues, and set up their own semi-legal agricultural businesses such as avocado farms and timber, to diversify revenue streams. Colombian authorities have also alleged that Mexican cartels are attempting to produce synthetic cocaine using cheaper coca base paste within Mexico itself, which would simplify their trafficking supply chains and reduce associated costs of importing from Colombia. As such, the Bajio region will continue to be lucrative to such criminal groups not only as a source of extortion but as a base for emerging agri- and narcotic-based production due to its high fertility and vast expanses of land.
  2. An additional threat is posed by the cartels’ continued targeting of indigenous communities in these states, by burning protected lands and illegally cutting through forests. Given their distrust of authorities over historic grievances and the inability of the state to provide them protection, such communities often form self-defense groups or grupos autodefensas. Owing to their limited resources and inter-group conflicts, as well as reports of self-defense groups being involved in drug trafficking, kidnapping, and infiltration by criminal organizations, their presence is likely to pose additional risks to local businesses and residents. This could be directly through targeted criminal activity or indirectly through violent public confrontations with law enforcement and cartels.
  3. FORECAST: The agro-business environment in Bajio will become increasingly uncertain as the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic becomes more apparent in the coming months, with unemployed local communities likely to blame big businesses for job losses and rising violence in the states. Given that adequately protecting farmland and forest areas has proven to be a major concern for both private and public security apparatuses, secondary industries are likely to be adversely affected by the resultant deterioration of the business environment. Cartels are thus likely to capitalize on the economic downturn by taking over disenfranchised land owners’ assets and disrupting localized agri-business activity, as well as emerging as an alternative source of aid and services from officials for disadvantaged locals.

CJNG Statement Upon Entering San Luis Petosi


Increasingly violent turf wars, standoffs with law enforcement to increase risk to bystanders

  1. Groups such as the SRLC and the CJNG have faced increasing scrutiny and security operations in the El Bajio region in recent years, likely due to authorities’ attempts to ensure the region remains an attractive investment opportunity. However, this has led to brutal turf wars and retaliatory violence in states like Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacan, and San Luis Potosi. This is reflected in these states consistently recording some of the highest homicide and assault rates, and multiple advisories by the US Department of State advising against travel to some areas in these states.
  2. In addition, the trend of smaller, often more radical, local groups allying themselves to large cartels to carry out violent proxy attacks on rival groups and law enforcement, as well as mass-casualty attacks in public areas, is expected to continue going forward. As such, there remains a high risk of spillover violence affecting travelers and residents in these states.
  3. Further, given the general mid-term legislative, gubernatorial, and local elections scheduled for June 2021, as well as the electoral significance of major states in El Bajio, the threat of politically-motivated violence remains high. This is supported by attacks targeting mayoral candidates between March 3-5 in the municipalities of Nuevo Casas Grandes in Chihuahua, Casimiro Castillo in Jalisco, Isla Mujeres in Quintana Roo, Tamazunchale in San Luis Potosi, and La Perla in Veracruz. Groups such as the CJNG are known to engage in armed attacks on candidates and sitting officials to ensure that those in power are favorable to their operations, and targeted attacks sometimes carry the latent potential of spillover violence.
  4. FORECAST: Given precedent, key states and cities in El Bajio are likely to witness a spike in violence in 2021 due to political developments, and into the longer-term due to an anticipated uptick in security operations against large criminal groups. Such insecurity is likely to adversely affect the image of the El Bajio industrial region as being safe for doing business.

Cartel Presence in El Bajio


  1. Those operating or residing in Mexico are advised to remain cognizant of the threat posed by organized criminal groups to business activity in the El Bajio region.
  2. Avoid nonessential travel to areas with an extreme or high risk of cartel and gang-related violence, including avoiding rural road travel.
  3. Those with continuing essential operations in such areas are advised to maintain an adequate private security contingent in order to secure any facilities or transport plans. Minimize employee exposure to areas with a known cartel presence.
  4. In the event that a facility or operation is targeted by cartel members, it is advised to evacuate nonessential personnel immediately from the site, while avoiding any interaction with the criminal groups where possible and contacting local and home-nation authorities.
  5. Remain cognizant of local media updates regarding areas with a significant cartel presence, given the dynamic nature of the violence.

Organized crime to remain primary security threat in Sweden throughout 2021 – Sweden Analysis


  • Gang violence in Sweden continues to proliferate, acting as the primary security threat and undermining the country’s otherwise relatively safe security landscape.
  • Authorities estimate that there are 40 family-based criminal “clans” operating in Sweden’s so-called vulnerable areas, attempting to consolidate their influence by recruiting youths and increasing their targeting of both business and local politics.
  • The government has introduced a number of reforms providing police with more tools in addressing gang violence, including the target of increasing the national police force by 10,000 officers by 2024.
  • Travel to Sweden may continue while practicing standard safety procedures and avoiding nonessential travel to police-designated high-risk areas.

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Current Situation

  • In February 2021, the Swedish Police confirmed that the government is on course to meet its target of adding 10,000 officers to the national police force by 2024. The measure is part of a 34-point program introduced by the government to combat gang violence.
  • An estimated 40 family-based criminal “clans” are operating in Sweden. These clans are increasing their influence in Sweden’s so-called “vulnerable areas,” disadvantaged neighborhoods that are increasingly segregated. Police estimate there are 12,000 people active in such organized criminal groups.
  • Sweden has witnessed a significant increase in gun violence in recent years, with authorities recording a total of 366 shootings in 2020, compared to 334 in 2019.
  • Criminal gangs continue to utilize explosives in order to intimidate rival gangs, as well as extort businesses. In 2020, 107 detonations were recorded, in addition to 89 attempted explosions, compared to 133 detonations and 82 attempted explosions in 2019.


Gang members & Police officers numbers Sweden 2021


Notable Incidents

  • In August 2020, a twelve-year-old girl was killed after being caught in a crossfire of a gang shootout in Botkyrka, outside of Stockholm, while two teenage boys were tortured, raped, and buried alive in a cemetery in Solna, also outside of Stockholm, in a so-called humiliation crime. The incidents received widespread public attention and incited calls for a government response.
  • Also in August 2020, members of a criminal organization set up roadblocks in the suburbs of Gothenburg in order to catch members of a rival gang, as part of an ongoing gang rivalry between four different criminal organizations operating in the area. The gangs eventually negotiated a truce at a hotel in Gothenburg, without any police interference.

Vulnerable areas 

  • Police have identified 60 vulnerable areas in Sweden, characterized by low socioeconomic development, which makes them prone to influence by organized crime. Of the 60 areas, 22 have been classified as high risk, or so-called “no go zones”, where police are greatly hindered or unable to carry out operations due to high levels of violence and a general reluctance to cooperate in investigations and the judiciary system. The majority of these areas are located in the suburbs of major cities.
  • These areas typically have large immigrant communities, in which unemployment is high, compounded by restrictive labor laws, which make it difficult for migrants to gain employment. Additionally, vulnerable areas have a considerably higher proportion of children, as well as high school dropout rates. As such, youth in these areas are prime targets for criminal organizations, who tend to target young men seeking a sense of belonging and purpose.
  • An estimated 50 percent of all gang members are foreign-born and 85 percent have an immigrant background.
  • According to Deputy Police Chief Mats Lofving, criminal groups are increasing their presence in business and politics in such areas in order to wield more formal influence.

Sweden High Risk Areas scaled

Assessments & Forecast

Criminal groups expected to continue embedding themselves in vulnerable areas, increasing the potential for spillover violence

  1. The increase in criminal-related violence is likely driven by ongoing inter-gang rivalries, as evidenced by the inter-gang-derived checkpoints in Gothenburg.
  2. As evidenced by the increase in shootings in recent years, including in 2020, gang-rivalries have led to the increased influx of illegal arms in Sweden, utilizing arms trafficking routes predominantly from the Balkans. Moreover, despite COVID-19-related border restrictions, authorities seized a record number of firearms and drugs in 2020, with a total of 147 firearms seized in customs compared to 58 in 2019. These figures suggest the actual number of illegal weapons circulating in Sweden is likely much higher.
  3. With this, weapon- and explosive-involved violence is expected to continue in the form of shootings, as well as grenades and explosive attacks. In more extreme cases, and especially during heightened inter-gang tensions, execution-style killings remain possible. As demonstrated by the August 2020 incidents, the threat of spillover violence is high, with shootouts liable to occur in public areas.
  4. Further, based on precedent, criminal gangs are liable to increase extortive tactics, targeting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in both their strongholds and more central areas in Stockholm and Gothenburg. Extortion is likely to take place in the form of grenade attacks targeting property, as well as potential attacks on vehicles or residences belonging to business owners.
  5. The use of grenades as an extortive tactic further increases the risk to bystanders, as undetonated grenades may be left in public spaces. This was illustrated by the 2018 death of a 60-year-old man in Stockholm, who was killed after picking up a grenade at a metro station mistaking it for a toy.
  6. While the vulnerable areas will remain the primary locations of criminal activity, the continued gang violence risks spilling over to other areas. This is supported by a November 2019 attack in Angelholm, an affluent municipality located north of Helsingborg. Unknown individuals threw an explosive device onto a balcony in a residential building, no injuries were reported.
  7. In addition to violent crime, the presence of criminal organizations increases the likelihood of petty crime, such as pickpocketing and home burglary, both in vulnerable areas, as well as urban centers. That 81,000 home burglaries were reported in 2020, an increase of eight percent from 2019, in contrast to other countries that witnessed a downturn during the COVID-19 pandemic, further supports this.
  8. Further, criminal activity, including armed robberies, has seen an uptick in and around central train stations, as well as main streets in urban areas, particularly during the nighttime hours, increasing the risk to the public. In Gothenburg, multiple armed robberies have been reported in recent weeks, with three teenagers reportedly robbed and beaten near Spantorget by a group of six young men on February 14, for example.
  9. Further, criminal organizations are likely to target police in response to recent security operations, including heightened security measures in vulnerable areas. This is supported by a March 2 investigation, which found that a criminal organization in Uppsala was attempting to carry out an attack against police in the city.


Crime In Sweden 2020


Government and authority bolstered response to gang violence reflects growing threat and public pressure

  1. Gang violence has become a central political issue in 2020, following a surge in violence and the death of the 12-year-old girl in Botkyrka.
  2. The government, currently led by the left-wing Social Democrats party, has introduced a number of reforms providing police with more tools in addressing gang violence, highlighting the pervasiveness of gang violence. These include permitting police to access encrypted information, juvenile surveillance (i.e. convicted juvenile offenders are to be monitored using ankle bracelets), increased use of camera surveillance, harsher punishments for possession of weapons, and increased resources for schools in vulnerable areas.
  3. Despite these measures, various parties have argued that the government’s response has proven ineffective. The center-right Moderate Party, the second largest in the Riksdag, has called for higher police wages, a paid police education program, doubling the punishment for crimes related to gang violence, removing shorter sentences for individuals aged 18-21, increased surveillance in vulnerable areas, and the introduction of witness protection.
  4. While the far-right Sweden Democrats party has voiced similar criticism of the government’s handling of crime, the party has repeatedly focused on the abovementioned links between organized crime and migration, stating that while the issue is partially due to socioeconomic difficulties, it is also due to sociocultural factors related to Islam. This narrative has been purported by alternative media sources, including Samhallsnytt and Nyheter Idag, both founded by the Sweden Democrats. This is likely to heighten anti-migrant sentiments, with the public support for deportation and stricter migration policies liable to increase.
  5. That multiple police operations targeting organized crime are ongoing reiterates the primacy of the threat posed by these groups. Such operations include the nationwide Operation Rimfrost, which began in 2019 following the public execution of a 15-year-old in Malmo. Local operations have also begun, such as Operation Solvind in Malmo. Further, police announced on March 2 that 58 people are currently being prosecuted for involvement in criminal networks in Uppsala. 17 of the suspects are in police custody. The arrests are part of an ongoing large-scale operation against criminal networks, which began in May 2020. Police have seized 100 kilograms of explosives along with illegal weapons, 17 kilograms of crystal, 200,000 benzodiazepines and amphetamines, cocaine, and doping substances.


Stockholm Risk Map


  1. Travel to Sweden may continue while practicing standard safety procedures.
  2. Avoid nonessential travel to the police designated high-risk areas (See map) due to increased criminal activity and the risk posed to the general public and bystanders.
  3. Maintain heightened vigilance in central stations and isolated areas in central Gothenburg, Malmo, and Stockholm during the nighttime hours due to the potential for crime, including muggings and armed robbery.
  4. Maintain vigilance in crowded areas in urban centers due to the potential for petty crime, such as pickpocketing.

COVID-19 lockdown measures to affect criminal patterns across Europe – Europe Analysis

Executive Summary

Since the introduction of COVID-19 restrictions in February-March, multiple countries across Europe reported a significant drop in home burglaries, violent robberies, and thefts. Meanwhile the region saw an increase in burglaries at commercial establishments, theft of medical supplies, as well as racial and domestic violence.

The expected economic downturn from the lockdown will likely lead to a return to pre-crisis rates or an increase in robberies and other violent crimes and in anti-establishment sentiments while presenting human traffickers new opportunities in the long-term.

In the short-to-medium term, the disruption of narcotics supply chains will likely lead to low-level drug dealers shifting to alternative crimes, such as burglary and armed robberies, and the sale of more dangerous alternatives. Going forward, supply shortages and increasing demand for illicit drugs may increase gang-violence as restrictions begin to ease.

Nonessential travel within Europe should be voided as per government directives amid COVID-19, while remaining cognizant of local criminal activity.

Current Situation

Decrease in home burglaries, violent robberies, and drug trafficking

Multiple countries have reported a shift in criminal activity since February when countries began implementing COVID-19 precautionary measures.

Spanish police recorded a roughly 50 percent decline in criminal offenses compared to the same period in 2019 since the partial lockdown on March 14.

French authorities reported a 45 percent drop in crime rates between March-April, with the most significant decreases seen in burglaries of accommodation, robberies with weapons, and vehicle thefts.

Italy witnessed a 72 percent decrease in home robberies in March 2020 compared to 2019, while other robberies dropped by roughly 54 percent and drug-related offenses by 46 percent.

Dutch, German, Greek, Irish, and Swedish authorities witnessed a similar reduction in thefts and burglaries, with thefts in Greece dropping by 25 percent as of April.

Slovenia witnessed a recent decrease in burglaries, robberies in residential areas, and property crimes compared to 2018.

Knife crime reportedly declined in London in the latter half of March, while public violence and home burglaries decreased across the UK.

The French anti-narcotics agency, OFAST, reported in early April that the suspension of air traffic significantly disrupted the inflow of cocaine. Reports also indicate that supply shortages have also been recorded in Germany since the closing of borders. Nonetheless, trafficking networks have attempted to smuggle drugs via cargo. In the UK, drug treatment experts warned that a drop in the supply of narcotics has resulted in users turning to more dangerous alternatives such as the synthetic opioid Fentanyl, which can be obtained with a prescription.

Increase in commercial burglaries, theft of medical supplies, domestic and racial violence

Despite the decrease in certain crimes, other offenses have witnessed an uptick.

Large numbers of scams, thefts, and the illegal sale of medical supplies were recorded across Europe in recent months. Three pharmacists in southern France were arrested for illegally reselling face masks, as per March 28 reports. Individuals were arrested in Hungary and the Netherlands for scamming individuals and hospitals into buying non-existent protective masks. On March 23, oxygen canisters were stolen from a hospital in the UK. Multiple incidents of verbal and violent attacks on healthcare workers and vandalism of ambulances were also reported across the region. Interpol stated that organized crime is thriving by trading in counterfeit goods due to an increased demand for medical and hygiene products.

Multiple countries recorded an increase in burglaries at closed commercial establishments, pharmacies, and other stores that remain open, with Madrid recording nine pharmacy robberies in one day. In Italy, theft and robbery of pharmacies has only decreased by about 13 percent compared to the overall drop of robberies of between 54 and 72 percent. Meanwhile, authorities in Sicily bolstered security near supermarkets and grocery stores as a result of an uptick in shoplifting.

There are also reports of organized criminal groups across southern Italy using the situation to extort local enterprises in need of short-term loans to cover the commercial losses.

In terms of anti-foreign sentiment, there have been a number of notable incidents targeting individuals of Asian descent in recent weeks. In the UK, the owner of a Chinese restaurant was attacked by a group in Hertfordshire, before being asked if the victim had COVID-19. An individual of Asian descent was assaulted in Munich, Germany, with the assailant spraying disinfectant in the victim’s face while yelling “corona.”

Finally, countries across Europe have reported a surge in domestic violence since the start of lockdowns. Within the first week since March 17, there was a 32 percent increase in France’s domestic violence cases and a 36 percent increase in Paris. Spain witnessed an 18 percent increase and the UK a 25 percent increase in calls and online requests concerning domestic abuse since the beginning of the lockdown.


Assessments & Forecast

Economic downturn resulting from lockdown to increase domestic burglaries, property vandalism, and organized crime in the medium-to-long term

Given that the lockdowns have significantly altered the activity of the public and criminals alike, the drop in residential burglaries, violent theft, public violence, and knife crimes is a direct effect of the quarantine measures limiting the opportunities for crimes of this nature. Therefore, it is unlikely for this trend to persist as restrictions begin to ease.

On the contrary, with the economic impact of the lockdowns likely to be felt well beyond their removal, domestic burglaries, thefts, and ATM robberies are liable to gradually rise following the easing of restrictions.

With studies following the economic crash in 2008 demonstrating a correlation between rising homicide and assault rates and economic downturns, the expected economic crisis is also liable to trigger an increase in violent crimes, especially among relatively socioeconomically underdeveloped communities. As a result of economic stress, violent robberies in relatively wealthier neighborhoods and vehicular theft are liable to rise as a means to earn money.

With certain sections of the society, especially urban youth, being likely to be disproportionately affected by the economic slowdown, these worst affected groups are liable to increasingly engage in criminal behavior. Rising poverty and unemployment resulting from the lockdowns are likely to create opportunities for organized criminal networks to increase trafficking activities and recruitment. Countries that already had a significant presence of organized crime are liable to witness increased activity. As demonstrated in southern Italy, such groups are liable to take advantage of the increased potential for human smuggling, extortion, racketeering, and money laundering, embedding themselves in local economies for the long-term. This may be exacerbated as criminal groups look to gain a footing in local businesses in order to benefit from any potential government bailouts which may look to help small businesses and the self-employed.

Popular discontent among the sectors of society most affected by job cuts and economic downturn will likely result in increasing anti-establishment sentiments and resentment towards governments and certain organizations. Companies that undertook more severe job cuts and failed to provide employees with adequate compensation are liable to be the primary targets of protests and vandalism in the months following the removal of lockdown measures.

Illicit drug shortages to see low-level dealers shift to alternative crimes in short-to-medium term and increase gang violence in the long-term

In addition to international border restrictions having significantly impacted the supply of illicit drugs from South America and Asia, they are likely to have reduced access to chemical precursors used in the production of methamphetamine, heroin, and cocaine that are largely procured from China. Given that travel restrictions to and from China were among the first to be introduced, the production of drugs has likely been impacted since January. The liquidity of trafficking groups has also likely been severely affected, especially among the mafia of Albania and Italy, with merchants unable to pay extortion fees amid lockdowns.

Due to movement restrictions during lockdowns, low-level criminals, who otherwise rely on the sale of drugs on the streets, are liable to resort to the other crimes, such as theft of medical supplies and burglaries or armed robbery to maintain a source of income. Additionally, due to shortages in the supply of heroin, dealers may also resort to the sale of more dangerous alternatives like fentanyl, which are easier to procure, store, and transport in smaller batches. In addition, supply chain issues will likely put considerable pressure on any domestic supplies in Europe, most likely Cannabis, which can be grown in makeshift greenhouses. This may catalyze a short term increase in local production, especially with police likely not focusing on such issues at present.

As restrictions begin to ease, while trafficking routes for illicit drugs will open up, the demand for cocaine and heroin is likely to be significantly higher than supply, especially in Western Europe. The resulting high prices are likely to lead to violent confrontations between gangs fighting over control of the limited supplies. With this, gun violence and homicide rates could see a rise following the reopening of borders. This is likely to be primarily focussed in urban and suburban areas that typically see high levels of gang activity anyway, as well as potentially in major port towns.

Anti-foreign attacks to recur amid COVID-19 and after opening of borders

That attacks against individuals of Asian descent were recorded in multiple countries early on in the outbreak indicates that anti-Asian sentiments are liable to persist beyond the immediate crisis, especially as multiple countries begin to question China’s handling of the crisis. This is liable to raise perceptions of a deliberate attempt by China to mismanage the pandemic, in addition to fears of Asians being carriers of the virus. Increased rhetoric by international political leaders sometimes referring to the virus as ‘Chinese virus’ is liable to further strengthen xenophobic sentiments.

This increases the likelihood of Asian-owned companies being the target of attacks, vandalism, and protests by nationalist and xenophobic groups. As quarantine restrictions ease, the risk of foreign nationals operating or residing in Europe being verbally or physically harassed is liable to persist into the medium-term. Furthermore, Asian-linked companies and enterprises may witness decreased sales due to such sentiments.

Finally, there remains a likelihood of general xenophobic sentiments persisting due to the fear of foreigners being virus carriers, as evidenced with French visitors being harrassed in the German border town of Gersheim in April. This may result in an overall decrease in intra-European travel and tourism into the medium-term, as well as travelers being subject to harassment and abuse.


Avoid nonessential travel within Europe as per government directives amid COVID-19 while remaining cognizant of local criminal activity.

Remain cognizant of possible scams and sale of counterfeit medical and hygiene supplies.

Foreign residents across Europe are advised to maintain heightened vigilance due to the elevated potential for racially motivated harassment.

Facilities that are currently non-operational due to COVID-19 restrictions are advised to take additional precautions against possible vandalism and burglaries.