Military personnel inspect the site of a bomb attack at a supermarket in the city of Pattani Thailand | REUTERS

How will the uptick in separatist militancy affect tourist sites in Thailand? – Thailand Analysis

Current Situation

Security officials confirmed on June 12 that the alert level had been raised in the provinces of Krabi, Phang Nga, and Phuket due to an increased threat of militancy. As a result, security at Krabi’s international airport as well as crossings, public spaces, and government buildings across all three provinces has reportedly been bolstered. On the same day, both Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan and a Royal Thai Police spokesperson made statements downplaying the alert, stating that it was part of a normal procedure intended to protect against the general threat of militancy, and not related to any specific threat.

Instances of such attacks have been on the rise, with notable attacks occurring in multiple areas. On June 1, security was reportedly bolstered at Suvarnabhumi International Airport in Bangkok following the discovery of a suspected pipe bomb in a metro station one day earlier. On May 22, more than 20 people were injured following a bomb explosion at Phramongkutklao Hospital in Bangkok. On May 15 and April 5, two people were injured in each of two separate crude pipe bomb explosions, also in Bangkok. On May 9, more than 50 people were injured in the southern Pattani province following a twin bombing at a supermarket. Overnight between August 11 and 12, 2016 a series of low-intensity improvised explosive device (IED) attacks at tourist destinations across Thailand’s Gulf provinces, including Phuket and Phang Nga, killed four and injured 36.

How will the uptick in separatist militancy affect tourist sites in Thailand? - Thailand Analysis | MAX Security

Assessments & Forecast

Separatist militancy outside of the restive south currently in a period of heightened activity

The southern insurgency waged by ethnic Malays has, until recently, been largely limited to the southern border provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani, Songkhla, and Yala, where the Malay population is most highly concentrated. Whereas the August 2016 bombings marked a rare occasion when attacks were waged outside of this traditional separatist operational sphere, it was followed by a relatively calm period outside of the southern provinces that lasted until April 2017. Currently, given the spate of IED attacks in recent months, it appears that Thailand has once again entered a period of heightened militant activity targeting more populated and heavily touristed areas.

The uptick in attacks in 2017 is attributable to a number of factors, namely the ratification of the new Thai constitution in April, which is perceived by separatists as contributing to the marginalization of southern minorities; continued setbacks in the peace process; and the apparent personnel shifts taking place within the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), the most powerful southern separatist group. In terms of the peace process, the BRN’s demands are mostly similar to those offered in 2013 shortly before the Yingluck peace initiative was launched. However, like in 2013, the Thai military rejected these fresh demands outright due to the rebel group’s insistence that negotiations should be done through the guise of the international community. The Thai government has long held that peace talks are an internal matter and no international mediation or observation could occur.

With regard to changes in the BRN, it appears that not only has a new hard-line leader emerged in the group but that they are aggressively expanding and recruiting. Further, as the insurgency enters its 14th year, younger commanders are likely getting restless in the face of no progress in the peace process and a perceived unwillingness of the Thai government to compromise.

Likely, the statements made by security officials following the issuance of the recent alert were an attempt to assuage the concerns of potential tourists in the face of such a growing threat. Given the established pattern of high activity and relative lulls, the exact nature of why the alert was issued is of less consequence, and either way underscores the current legitimate threat of separatist militant attacks against tourist areas.

How will the uptick in separatist militancy affect tourist sites in Thailand? - Thailand Analysis | MAX Security

Separatists to continue to rely on IEDs for staging attacks, capacity for large-scale bombing remains lower outside of southern provinces

Attacks such as the Pattani supermarket bombing in May contrast distinctly with the recent IED attacks in Bangkok. In areas like Pattani, militants have clear operational advantages given the security situation and are therefore able to launch higher-intensity attacks. Meanwhile, the low-casualty IED attacks in Bangkok demonstrate a much lower operational capacity in touristed areas where security is more comprehensive. That being said, separatists clearly have the capabilities to build more destructive bombs, and therefore it remains to be seen if this capability will eventually translate into higher-casualty attacks outside of the restive south.

Despite this operational disadvantage, the August 2016 incident gained a very high level of international notoriety despite utilizing relatively unreliable and weak explosives. This perceived success means that future attacks will likely continue to utilize similar methods and that separatists will continue to avoid large-scale direct confrontations with security forces.

Recommendations

Travel to Bangkok may continue while adhering to standard security precautions regarding the latent risk of crime and militant attacks. Maintain vigilance throughout Bangkok and nationwide, given the general militant threat. We advise against nonessential travel to the provinces of Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat, and Songkhla at the border with Malaysia, due to a persistent threat of militancy and ongoing counterinsurgency operations.