Turkey Special Intelligence Report – Coup Attempt – July 2016

This report was written by:

Tzahi Shraga – MAX Security’s Chief Intelligence Officer, ret. LTC from the Israeli intelligence community

Roshanna Lawrence – MAX Security’s Associate Director of Intelligence, Middle East & North Africa

Oded Berkowitz – MAX Security’s Senior Analyst on Middle East & North Africa

Garrett Krivicich – MAX Security’s Senior Analyst on Turkey

 

Executive Summary

  • During the overnight hours of July 15 and July 16, several units from among the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) launched an attempted coup against the Turkish government, targeting several strategic locations in Istanbul and Ankara.
  • By capitalizing on popular support, the Turkish government was able to rally large crowds in their favor, thus ultimately defeating the attempted coup.
  • Failure of the coup highlights President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s strong political standing and capabilities in the country, despite recent controversies, and he will likely capitalize on recent events to further broaden his authorities.
  • In the aftermath of the attempted coup, it is likely that the Turkish population will perceive the coup as directed, funded and supported by foreign, including western, elements. This would largely contribute to further anti-western sentiments by the government and the populace, and could result in Americans, Europeans, and other foreign nationals being assaulted.

General development Timeline

Current Situation

Istanbul Main Events- Time line - max security

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Ankara Main Events- Time line - max security

turkey-ankara

 

Assessments

The Tactical Situation

Rebels’ Actions

While at the time of writing, information on the exact extent of involvement of the military, including units that took part in the failed coup, is still unfolding, several indications point towards a relatively large and well organized mobilization. Some of the more prominent indicators are:

  • Large number of personnel involved. At this time, at least 6,000 soldiers and officers were arrested by the government in suspicion of taking part in the coup, a number that is expected to grow in the coming hours and days.
  • Among those arrested were at least 29 Colonels and six Generals, including high-ranking figures such as Major General Mamdouh Hakbil, Chief of Staff of the Aegean Army in Izmir, General Erdal Ozturk, commander of the Third Army in Erzincan, General Adem Huduti, commander of the Second Army in Malatya, Major General Ozhan Ozbakir, commander of the Denizli garrison, General Bekir Ercan Van, the commander of Turkey’s Incirlik Airbase, and General Akin Ozturk, the former commander of the Turkish Air Force (THK), the alleged leader of the coup.
  • Airstrikes that were conducted in support of rebels highlight the participation of members from both the ground and air forces in the coup, while the arrest of both current and former officers from various branches of the military underscore the broad spectrum of supporters for the coup from within the armed forces.
  • The ability to conduct relatively large-scale military operations in both of Turkey’s major cities, which were likely partially directed from a remote location, as highlighted by the involvement of the Aegean Army’s Chief of Staff, are indicative of very high command and control capabilities, and are likely the result of extensive planning and preparations.

In addition to governmental locales and military headquarters, one of the rebels’ primary objectives was traditional media outlets, as shown by their targeting of various state-owned and private television and radio stations.

  • This move was likely initiated due to the rebels’ desire to capitalize on their initial successful momentum in order to declare their victory, and prevent others from issuing reports that will contradict it. As such, the rebels could have significantly limited the popular opposition against them by giving off the impression of a victory and, thus, discouraging potential resistance.

Government response

The Turkish government took two major actions that proved instrumental in initially mitigating the effects of the attempted coup, and ultimately defeating it:

Police anti-riot vehicles in Istanbul during morning of July 16
  1. Suspending social media activities. By doing so, coupled with successfully blocking rebels from utilizing traditional media outlets, the Turkish government effectively ended most of the rebels’ ability to directly convey their message to the Turkish people, as well as to foreign actors. This inability significantly diminished the possibility of rebels to rally popular support in their favor and to portray an image that they are acting on the civilians’ best interest, as opposed to in pursuit of perceived power.
  2. Rallying people to protest in favor of the government. This was done by both media publications, as well as direct public address systems such as text messaging and announcements from mosques. These developments eventually led to mass demonstrations, not only in central locales in Istanbul and Ankara, but also in areas with Kurdish majorities, such as Diyarbakir, Mardin, and Van.

By taking these actions, the government had both secured its legitimacy by showing that it is supported by a broad spectrum of the population, as well as neutralized rebels’ abilities to engage in effective military operations of fear from causing mass civilian casualties and repeating a scenario similar to Syria.

Future Projections

Failed coup demonstrates Erdogan’s strong political standing and capabilities, despite recent controversies

While the attempted coup began with some success in Turkey’s central cities of Istanbul and Ankara, that momentum was ultimately reversed, particularly when Erdogan called upon the Turkish population to “come to the streets” to defy the military faction’s takeover. Regardless of political viewpoints, thousands of protesters marched in the streets of both cities, thus highlighting the influence that the president has on the general public, despite recent political controversies, which have called to question his motives.

Additionally, even though opposing parties in Turkey’s parliament have largely opposed the president in the majority of his recent decisions and political maneuvers, all of these political entities came out in support of the current government, and stated their opposition for the coup. With this in mind, while pro-coup forces made up only a fraction of the military itself, the government stood united behind Erdogan, thus strengthening the president’s abilities, and ultimately leading to the foiling of the attempted coup.

Furthermore, Erdogan’s heavy investment into the Turkish National Police (TNP), coupled with his persistent attempts to control the military’s influence and keep it under civilian control, likely contributed significantly to the government’s ability to foil the coup. Ultimately, Turkish police were able to fend off major attacks, including in central locales such as Ankara’s Headquarters of the General Intelligence (MIT) and Istanbul’s Bosphorus Bridge, thereby leading to the surrendering and arrests of thousands of pro-coup soldiers.

Also, it is important to note that many military commanders appeared to remain neutral at the start of the conflict, and likely waited to see which side had momentum before joining forces with pro-Erdogan soldiers. Once these sections of the military aligned with pro-government forces, the takeover began to face significant setbacks. That said, this apparent initial neutrality of Turkey’s top commanders brings to question the loyalties of the military in general, and will likely play a part in how the government responds to the attempted coup in the coming days.

Failed takeover likely to be utilized by Erdogan to strengthen presidential powers

In light of the failed coup attempt, it is likely that Erdogan will capitalize on the government’s success, as well as the perceived unity of the Turkish people, in order to further pursue the strengthening and broadening of his own presidential powers. In this context, while the general public has largely opposed constitutional reform transitioning the parliamentary system of government into a presidential one, recent developments may sway popular opinion in the opposite direction, as Erdogan likely attempts to use the attempted coup to demonstrate the need for a strong, unified executive branch. Additionally, the three rival political parties who have largely opposed such a maneuver may shift positions given the public’s strongly negative reaction to the attempted coup.

With this in mind, while such constitutional reform would take months, Erdogan will likely utilize

Security forces deployed in alert mode into Istanbul during morning hours of July 16
Security forces deployed in alert mode into
Istanbul during morning hours of July 16

the recent success in foiling the coup in the meanwhile to further strengthen the national police force, while simultaneously initiating further protocols to limit the independent capabilities of the military itself. In addition, to discourage such similar actions by the military in the future, the president will likely seek that the harshest penalties are given to the pro-coup soldiers, while ensuring that trials and sentencing are highly publicized. This will likely lead to further mass demonstrations in support of such actions, as the public continues to oppose the attempt military takeover, and support the government of Erdogan.

In this context, as Erdogan likely pursues such harsh measures for pro-coup elements, these soldiers may initiate acts of violence or unrest in order to negotiate with the government, or simply out of desperation. This could potentially include kidnappings of civilians or government officials, as well as other attacks in major cities or locales.

Increased threat of militancy

While this process likely unfolds in the coming days and weeks, it remains likely that militant groups, namely Islamic State (IS), will take advantage of the ensuing instability to stage attacks in Turkey’s major cities. This point is further bolstered by Erdogan’s likely attempts to further tame the military’s capabilities in terms of acting independently, thus placing the burden of mitigating major threats on Turkey’s national police and security forces, and increasing the chances of militant groups in staging acts of militancy. Overall, in the immediate aftermath of the attempted coup, the threat of militancy unfolding in the country’s central locales remains elevated.

Kurdish Population

While the ensuing instability provided a significant opportunity for Kurdish militant groups, namely the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), to take advantage of the situation and stage attacks against security forces, at this time, no such actions by the Kurdish fighters were reported. Instead, pro-Erdogan demonstrations took place in heavily Kurdish populated areas, such as Diyarbakir, where the PKK has a known and well established stronghold, and the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) released a statement rejecting the coup. With this in mind, the Kurdish populace ultimately backed government forces that they have been largely opposing since hostilities between the sides resumed in July 2015.

anti western sentiment
Resuming routine in Istanbul on July 16

This inaction by the Kurds can likely be explained by two reasons. Most importantly, while the PKK generally opposes the Turkish government, its main objective in its struggle is autonomy, as opposed to complete independence and overthrowing the Turkish state. In this context, the overthrow of the Turkish government in its entirety would likely be counterproductive for the Kurdish fighters, as such a move would place the country under military rule, and thus, the Kurds would likely face heavier violence in an attempt to stop the PKK from establishing autonomy. Second, regardless of political affiliation and national backgrounds, the general consensus of the Turkish populace highly opposes such actions by the military, as highlighted by massive demonstrations throughout the country. With this in mind, while PKK attacks against security forces will likely resume in the southeast, no major initiatives will likely be taken by the Kurdish fighters in the coming days, both due to the likely bolstered deployment of security forces, as well as the Kurds’ current interest in not having the government overthrown.

Anti-western sentiment

As the coup was ongoing, it is important to note that President Erdogan was quick to connect the incident to his rival, US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen. In this context, this insinuation by Erdogan, coupled with a general Turkish populace largely supportive of the president, will likely lead elements of the public to perceive the coup as funded and supported by Western elements. This likelihood is bolstered by local reports claiming physical assaults of western journalists, and individuals perceived as such, that have occurred over the last few hours in both Istanbul and Ankara.

Moreover, while the US ultimately released a statement showing its support for Erdogan in the ensuing attempted takeover, the measure was not announced for at least three hours after the coup began. In this context, it may be perceived by Turkish nationals that the US waited to see on which side the momentum lied before choosing to support the government. Such a perception would likely largely contribute to further anti-western sentiments, and could result in Americans, Europeans, and other foreign nationals and western-linked businesses in the country being targeted in assaults and harassments.

Finally, it remains likely that Erdogan will utilize the events to portray a firmer stance against Western intervention in Turkey’s internal affairs, thus solidifying his popularity amongst the Turkish populace, who generally holds anti-western sentiments. This less favorable position towards the West may cause serious setbacks in recent relations between Turkey and the EU, including the Syrian refugee deal made in April, as well as the potential for Turkey ultimately becoming a member of the organization in the future.

Recommendations

  1. Those operating in Ankara and Istanbul are advised to minimize movement over the coming hours. Contact us at [email protected] or +44 20-3540-0434 for itinerary and contingency support options.
  2. In addition, ensure that your mobile phones are fully charged and equipped with a charging cable.

 

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