Thailand: King’s death unlikely to cause short-term unrest, future stability depends on military’s ability to consolidate political control

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• King Bhumibol Adulyadej of Thailand declared dead on October 13, Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn announced as his successor
• Military junta likely to maintain short-term stability given its strong hold over country, repression of political opposition
• Long-term stability depends on military’s ability to consolidate political power, minimize influence of Red Shirt opposition with new King
• Travel to Bangkok may continue while adhering to standard security precautions regarding the latent risk of civil unrest and the threat of attacks.

CURRENT SITUATION

• On October 13, King Bhumibol Adulyadej of Thailand was declared dead at the age of 88 after battling with a number of medical problems for many years. Following the King’s death, the current Prime Minister, former General Prayuth Chan-Ocha, stated that Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn would ascend to the throne in accordance with the Constitution of Thailand. Additionally, the Prime Minister announced that the government will observe one year of mourning and flags will fly at half-mast for 30 days. No government events will be held during this period and the Prime Minister has asked the public to avoid entertainment activities for the duration of this period.
• Laws of lese majeste in Thailand remain stringent with any comments or actions deemed to be insulting to the King or royal family punishable by imprisonment, with years-long sentences often being handed down, even to foreign nationals.

BACKGROUND

• King Bhumibol Adulyadej of Thailand was, until his death, the world’s longest-serving monarch and a deeply important symbol in Thai politics. Not only did he have significant personal wealth and influence within the military and political elite, but the wide reverence for the royal family felt across Thai society made him an exceptionally powerful man, despite the fact that much of the official power of the crown was removed. While Thailand frequently saw high levels of political turmoil throughout the King’s rule, including a vast number of coups and unstable political parties, the King stayed consistent both in his position and in the levels of respect he commanded.
• In recent years, the stability of the King’s position was particularly notable given the political volatility seen across Thailand since the early 2000’s. This volatility widely surrounded the emergence of two socio-political groups known as the Yellow Shirts and Red Shirts; the former being made up of the Bangkok elite, supporting the old military order; the latter made up of mostly rural residents supportive of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Since Shinawatra’s rise to power in 2001, tensions dramatically increased between these groups as the populist leader and Thailand’s richest man attempted to challenge much of the traditional political landscape. The Prime Minister was subsequently ousted in 2006, marking the beginning of a long political battle between the Yellow and Red shirts, as political parties loyal to Shinawatra continued to win popular elections before being removed from power in a series of military coups.
• While Thailand’s political instability was often offset by the continuing stability of the King, as the monarch’s health began to waver, concerns arose domestically and internationally that upon the King’s death the country would devolve into unprecedented unrest as the Bangkok elite and Shinawatra supporting rural communities battled for power. It is within this climate that the most recent military coup occurred in 2014, as General Prayuth Chan-Ocha took power creating the incumbent National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), and successfully passed a referendum in August 2016 to cement their power. Many believe the NCPO’s decision to remain in power for so long, continually pushing back the date of popular elections and holding the referendum with strict laws against campaigning in opposition, were an attempt to create a well-established political institution that could fill the role of the King amid his ailing medical situation.
• Finally, the question of succession has been a contentious one in Thailand, given the Crown Prince’s unpopularity relative to his father, particularly among the military elite. The son of King Adulyadej has often been accused of not taking his role seriously and being too social with former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

ASSESSMENTS & FORECAST

In the immediate term widespread unrest remains unlikely, many Thais likely to respect government mandated mourning period

1. Although there are significant concerns that the death of the King would lead to a resurgence of political unrest, and particularly that it would reignite clashes on the streets of Bangkok, as seen in 2014, the current governmental climate, with strong emphases on law and order and political stability, is such that violence remains unlikely. This is due to a series of actions taken by the NCPO over the past two years, in an attempt to consolidate power and solidify their position within the government, including the August referendum and a number of purges against major Red Shirt leaders.
2. These actions, taken with some foresight regarding the King’s medical situation, have been, for the most past, successful in managing to create an institution capable of filling the vacuum that will be left in the wake of the King’s passing, at least in the mid-term. This has led to a scenario whereby the NCPO is strong enough and the Red Shirt opposition movement weak enough that any meaningful unrest has little possibility of gaining traction. Even if demonstrations did arise in the wake of the King’s death, given a lack of consolidated opposition leadership and the NCPO’s strong surveillance and policing capabilities, they would likely be quickly dispersed before they could manifest into significant unrest.
3. In addition to the political climate not being conducive to the emergence of unrest, the fact that the government have mandated a one year mourning period will likely curb any possibility of significant civil action taking place, at least for the coming months. Thai society places great importance on reverence directed towards the King, as well as the dead in general, and given the King’s popularity throughout almost all aspects of the country, Red and Yellow Shirt alike, the vast majority of individuals and groups will wish to respect the mourning period.
4. Furthermore, given the country’s strong laws against criticizing or insulting the crown, the NCPO is also likely to strongly come down against anyone who could be accused of not respecting the mourning period, further deterring the possibility of demonstrations. In conjunction with the mourning period, the Crown Prince has also agreed to wait a short period of time to hold his coronation ceremony, further highlighting the symbolic nature of the coming weeks and months as a time of mourning for the former King.
5. That being said, any instability which will arise in the coming year will likely stem from the decision to name the Crown Prince as the King’s successor. While he remains the constitutional next in line he remains somewhat unpopular with the population of Thailand, due to his reputation, and deeply unpopular with the military elite, due to his relationship with the Shinawatra family. In that regard, there is a possibility that small-scale displays of public uproar will arise from Yellow Shirt groups over the decision. Furthermore, it is constitutionally possible for the new King not to support the military junta, thus throwing the entire political system of Thailand into disarray. However, given that the NCPO was aware of the King’s health for a long time and were so forthcoming in naming the Crown Prince his successor, we assess that they have likely come to an agreement with the Prince based on his cooperation.

Popularity of the future King remains uncertain; long-term stability will rest on NCPO’s ability to maintain order

1. Given the former King’s role as a stabilizing figure in the Thai political spectrum, the possibility that his death will have a negative effect on the long-term stability of the country remains. Despite the NCPO’s ability to curtail widespread unrest in the short term, the military government relies on strict and authoritarian governing measures to keep the peace. These measures have not traditionally adapted well to periods of extended governance, especially considering Thailand’s official stance as a democracy and therefore the necessity of eventual elections. With that in mind, if Thailand returns to functional democracy, a political system which has traditionally been turbulent for the country, without a strong unifying figure, there is a possibility that violence will reemerge in the following years and decades. Moreover, if the Crown Prince is unable to fulfill the role of his father or if he falls out of favor with the populace it could cause significant constitutional and political complications for the country. Additional problems may arise from the Prince’s relationship with Shinawatra, which could inhibit him from projecting himself as the post-political surpassing figure, an aura that his father successfully created for himself.
2. With that in mind, the NCPO is likely to attempt to downsize the importance of the royal family with slow but significant steps, attempting to fill the void, in the long term, with strong, military-supported institutions which can act as stabilizing foundations for the state. Furthermore, even if elections do take place, given the current military government’s concerns over the Crown Prince’s relationship with Shinawatra, they are likely to be heavily influenced by the NCPO to ensure that other allies of the former Prime Minister do not obtain government positions. For the NCPO the major concern is that a Shinawatra ally could win a popular election, which has happened in all general elections since he came to power, while a Shinawatra-friendly King sits on the throne, leaving the exiled politician wielding power over two major branches of government.
3. Subsequently, the stability of Thailand’s future, in its current state, rests on the ability of the military to retain control and keep the Red Shirts from regaining a foothold in the country’s political system, an eventuality which has the ability to restart the cycle of controversial elections and major protest movements with the Yellow Shirts. While the military government has been widely criticized as undemocratic and illiberal, they have proven themselves to be the only force, with the former King’s backing, that could stabilize the country. Without the power of such a popular monarch to solidify their rule, their ability to remain strong and build a powerful institutional foundation for the country, will be the determining factor in Thailand’s long-term stability.

RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Travel to Bangkok may continue while adhering to standard security precautions regarding the latent risk of civil unrest and the threat of attacks.
2.  Those operating or traveling in Thailand are advised to avoid the immediate vicinity of any protest and political gatherings due to the potential for unrest and violence to be recorded during these events.
3.  Avoid discussing the current political situation in Thailand in public. Be advised that criticizing the military and the monarchy is illegal and may lead to arrests.
4.  Travelers should remain cognizant of the immediate mourning period and adhere to social norms and customs regarding overt displays of celebration which could be viewed as disrespectful.