Situation Analysis: Bahrain IED explosion in Sanabis

Situation: Bahrain IED explosion in Sanabis

Following the Ministry of Interior’s (MoI) statement that an explosion injured a Bahraini woman in Sanabis during the evening hours of February 23, further reports stated that the blast was the result of an IED. At the time of writing, no further information regarding the perpetrator has been reported.

Situation Analysis: Bahrain IED explosion in Sanabis | MAX Security

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Assessments & Forecast

The Bahrain IED explosion occurred amidst an uptick in recorded acts of militancy from Shiite militant groups in recent months, likely stemming from recent contentious events. These events include the killing of three Shiite militants during security raids on February 9 and the death of a suspected militant during a security raid in Nuwaidrat on February 20. Thus, such events have likely contributed to already heightened tensions between the Shiite opposition and the central Sunni authorities, in turn leading to an increase in militant attacks. Furthermore, a recent similar attack was recorded on February 14 when two civilians were injured in a bomb explosion at an unspecified location on Sitra Island.

In this context, given precedent incidents, we assess that this latest attack was likely conducted by radicalized elements within the Shiite opposition, potentially a militant group such as the Popular Resistance Brigades who have claimed similar events in the past. Moreover, while the IED injured a civilian, in light of frequent negative rhetoric aimed at Bahraini authorities, coupled with precedent attacks, we assess that the target of this latest attack was likely intended to be security forces. Thus, the act highlights the risk of collateral damage to civilians, particularly bystanders in the immediate vicinity of such attacks. That said, as such acts tend to be less sophisticated, we assess that this overall risk to civilians remain relatively limited at this time.

FORECAST: With this in mind, authorities are likely to intensify already heightened security measures in and around Sanabis, as well as throughout the country in general, in efforts to mitigate the risk of further acts of militancy from unfolding. Such measures are likely to include arrest raids in order to detect and detain the perpetrators of the attack in Sanabis. However, these operations are liable to further exacerbate tensions between the local Shiite population and Bahraini authorities, as such measures are largely perceived as oppressive, thus likely triggering protests and instances of unrest in the coming days and weeks. Moreover, these tensions may provoke further acts of militancy by Shiite militants, as the heightened security presence may also be capitalized by the former given that it would provide militants with additional targets. Given precedent, these actions are liable to include the use of homemade explosive devices, Molotov cocktail throwing, and the use of improvised firearms.

Recommendations

Travel to Manama’s business and diplomatic districts, as well as the Seef District, can continue at this time, while adhering to basic security precautions regarding civil unrest and low-level militancy. As a general rule, remain vigilant at checkpoints and when travelling during the nighttime hours due to an increased likelihood for unrest. In case a security checkpoint is encountered, act respectfully and patiently, while cooperating with security personnel. Additionally, refrain from photographing security personnel or documenting events. Be advised that government installations, checkpoints, and police stations are all potential targets for unsophisticated militant attacks involving Molotov cocktails or improvised explosive devices. Therefore, it is advised to avoid the vicinity of these locations, and practice vigilance for suspicious items or personnel as a standard security precaution. As a basic security precaution, avoid all demonstrations and political gatherings in Bahrain due to unrest emanating from such events.