What security concerns may develop from the growing threat of Islamic radicalization in Australia? – Australia Analysis

Current Situation:

On July 29, Australian counter-militancy authorities staged a series of raids across Sydney’s Surry Hills, Lakemba, Punchbowl, and Wiley Park neighborhoods, and arrested four individuals from a suspected militant cell. Two of the suspects, Khaled and Mahmoud Khayat, were identified as Lebanese-Australian brothers and the key individuals behind the cell. According to authorities, the Khayat brothers were developing a plot to target major airlines in the country, resulting in heightened security measures at airports across the country in the following weeks.

The suspects were allegedly assembling a device to disperse a noxious sulfur based gas on the plane, as well as IEDs in household appliances and toys. Further investigations revealed that the main charge for the manufacture of explosives was delivered to them from unnamed handlers associated with the Islamic State in Syria via Turkey. Another brother from the family, Tareq Khayat, reportedly moved to Raqqa in Syria to join IS in 2016.

According to a security environment report released by authorities in August, five militant attacks and 13 attack plots have been foiled by security forces since September 2014. At least 72 people have been charged in 32 counter-militancy operations since.

In addition, approximately 200 Australian nationals are believed to have traveled to Syria and Iraq to join IS, and 70 have been reported killed in battle. At least 40 have returned to Australia and are of “significant security concern”, according to authorities. At the present time, the National Terrorism Threat Level for the country is at “Probable”, the third in a six-tier system that “indicates an intention and capability to conduct an attack in Australia”.

Meanwhile, in the first week of August, IS-linked media released a video featuring an Australian operative based in Syria referred to as Abu Adam al-Australi, believed to be former Melbourne resident Mounir Raad. In the video, Al-Australi calls for “hijra” or travel to the Philippines to join the ongoing efforts of IS-linked groups in the Mindanao region against the military. For those who cannot travel, Al-Australia exhorts them to stage lone wolf attacks that “use your trade: nail guns, petrol bombs…and drive trucks on them”.

What security concerns may develop from the growing threat of Islamic radicalization in Australia? - Australia Analysis | MAX Security

Assessments & Forecast:

Threat of organized militant network remains low due to of lack of operational capacity; foreign fighters, lone-wolf attacks will remain on security forces’ radar as potential threat areas

The security apparatus’ current classification of militancy in the country under the Probable category appears an accurate summation of the current threat level in Australia. Trends thus far indicate that the capabilities of local sympathizers are not significantly developed to facilitate the successful formation of a credible local militant network. In instances where local groups have formed with specific targets in mind, such as the December 2016 Christmas Day plot in Melbourne or the recent Sydney cell, they have been unable to stay off the security forces’ radar for a sufficient duration to successfully execute their planned attacks. The relatively small size of the Muslim community in Australia in proportion to the general population, as well as reported estimates that 60 percent of radicalized individuals like the Khayat brothers have come from the Lebanese community, has further narrowed down the threat. This has likely made monitoring of at-risk individuals easier and the detection of organized attempts more successful.

However, despite the seemingly under-developed organizing capacity of jihadist cells, the threat of lone wolf attacks remains. Similar to global trends, lone-wolf militancy has often been more difficult to preempt. This is largely due to the relative unsophistication of these kinds of attacks, which rely on the weaponization of everyday resources such as vehicles and knives, and do not leave a perceivable trail for security services to pick up on. In some instances, individuals such as the perpetrator of the June 2017 Melbourne attack are not viewed as an immediate risk when they are originally flagged by security forces, due to a lack of sufficient evidence against them, or the minimal nature of their involvement with militant groups.

The absence of an urgent threat notwithstanding, there remains a latent risk of organized militancy in the country. One of the key factors that could galvanize their capabilities is increased engagement with foreign fighters in the future, which Australian authorities maintain are a significant cause for concern. These fears are likely to be further informed by reports that the Khayat brothers received explosives material from the Middle East, potentially facilitated by contacts associated with their brother in Syria. FORECAST: The exposure that battle-hardened foreign fighters have to transnational jihadist tactics, techniques, and procedures provides local radicalized individuals in Australia the opportunity to expand their capabilities. Beyond material support, close contact with these individuals could galvanize local cells and encourage them to devise more creative plots specific to their own security restrictions, such as the hybrid sulfur device that the Khayat brothers were developing to target airlines.

As outlined earlier, the primary current threat from Islamist extremism comes from lone-wolf style attacks carried out by self-radicalized individuals. In this context, the continued mentions of Australia in easy-to-access jihadist propaganda, which outline low-sophistication attack methods for sympathizers, increases the scope for radicalization and inspiration in the future. FORECAST: As reflected in Al-Australi’s video, transnational jihadist groups are likely to increasingly mention Australia’s efforts in the Philippines’ military campaigns against southern Islamist militancy to strengthen their recruitment narrative. Based on the geographic proximity and current topical relevance of the conflict in the Philippines, this approach may resonate more strongly with young sympathizers. In this context, security forces are likely to increase their monitoring of individuals perceived as receptive to this material on social media, especially if they have criminal antecedents and histories of sympathy with jihadist groups.

What security concerns may develop from the growing threat of Islamic radicalization in Australia? - Australia Analysis | MAX Security

Recommendations

Travel to all major cities in Australia can continue at the present time, with adherence of security protocols based on the latent threats of crime and militancy. We advise to routinely upgrade security protocols if operating or residing in Australia and remain cognizant of the state security establishment’s updates on the nature and types of militant threats in the country at any given time.