Will opposition protests and military defections continue leading up to gubernatorial elections? – Venezuela Analysis

Situation

Following the controversial election, the government inaugurated the National Constituent Assembly (ANC), intended to act as a legislative body which can replace the opposition-led National Assembly, often referred to as the Congress. The ANC will be controlled, in full, by the ruling Socialist Party (PSUV) and is poised to debate and enact constitutional reform which, according to the opposition, would strengthen the political supremacy of loyalist elements, and undermine the opposition-led Congress.

The ANC issued a decree assuming executive and legislative functions and further established a ‘Commission of Truth’, slated to investigate members of the opposition accused of instigating violent demonstrations amid the current wave of protests. In addition, the body has been tasked with investigating opposition candidates ahead of the upcoming gubernatorial elections, which were initially anticipated for December, until the ANC decided to reschedule the ballot for October 2017.

The Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) opposition coalition announced on August 9 that it intended to field candidates for the gubernatorial elections after previously abstaining from participating in the elections for the ANC, due to perceptions of it not being constitutional. The coalition justified its decision by stating that taking part in the vote ‘is a form of struggle’, and according to them not taking part would validate and strengthen the rule of President Nicolas Maduro.

Moreover, calls for defections and armed operations against government installations and property have increased in recent months. On August 6, a group of rogue soldiers assaulted a military garrison in Valencia. While two of the assailants were killed during the incident and another seven were captured, around ten men allegedly managed to escape with an arsenal of weapons. Moreover, on August 9 a video surfaced on social media depicting a group of armed hooded men in purported rebellion against the government. In the video, the spokesperson of the group claimed that rogue security elements in the country launched a movement called ‘Operation David,’ with the ultimate goal of ousting President Maduro.

Will opposition protests and military defections continue leading up to gubernatorial elections? - Venezuela Analysis | MAX SecurityAssessments & Forecast:

Intensity of opposition protests likely to decrease until gubernatorial elections, as MUD faces internal divisions over decision to participate

Given widely held suspicions that the government is poised to commit electoral fraud in order to preserve its political supremacy, MUD is facing internal divisions over fielding candidates to participate in the upcoming gubernatorial ballots. As a result, despite announcing that the opposition will participate in an attempt to undermine the government, coalition leaders remain ambivalent about their prospects to secure a favorable result. In this context, it is likely that the decision to register candidates was influenced by the opposition’s failure in toppling President Maduro through large, sustained manifestations. Although these transpired in Caracas on an almost daily basis for over three months, between early April and August, they failed to bring about a collapse of the government. In light of this reality, the opposition stands at a difficult junction, which appears to serve the government’s interests. MUD members advocating in favor of the elections believe that the ruling party is willing to afford the opposition limited political victories in exchange for breathing space to legitimize the contentious ANC. Conversely, other elements in the opposition argue that by participating in the elections, the MUD will inadvertently conform to PSUV’s strategy. Nonetheless, as the MUD remains divided, the government can continue to frame them as an illegitimate and unstable opposition, incapable of ruling the country.

In this context, it is likely that the decision to register candidates was influenced by the opposition’s failure in toppling President Maduro through large, sustained manifestations. Although these transpired in Caracas on an almost daily basis for over three months, between early April and August, they failed to bring about a collapse of the government. In light of this reality, the opposition stands at a difficult junction, which appears to serve the government’s interests. MUD members advocating in favor of the elections believe that the ruling party is willing to afford the opposition limited political victories in exchange for breathing space to legitimize the contentious ANC. Conversely, other elements in the opposition argue that by participating in the elections, the MUD will inadvertently conform to PSUV’s strategy. Nonetheless, as the MUD remains divided, the government can continue to frame them as an illegitimate and unstable opposition, incapable of ruling the country.

The establishment of the ANC has put further stress on the opposition. Firstly, the government is significantly reducing the amount of time permitted for launching campaigns and funding independent polling surveys. Secondly, the government has announced that opposition candidates have to be probed by the above mentioned ‘Truth Commission’ before being allowed to participate in the elections, to uncover whether or not they took part in the opposition rallies. In this respect, although precedent suggests that the government will likely control the elections in order to preserve its interests, going forward certain members of the opposition are, in turn, likely to abstain from organizing large protest rallies on a day to day basis, in order not to worsen the possibility of allegations against them. The strategy is meant to minimize the exposure of further MUD candidates to being banned from participating in the elections, by reducing the level of social action against the government.In any event, as it has already placed constraints on MUD, the government will also not likely allow the opposition to secure a sizable political victory in the upcoming ballot. For this reason, large rallies on an almost daily-basis will likely resume after the ballot, even if the result is more favorable towards MUD than originally anticipated. However, although protests are likely to decrease in size and frequency leading up to the gubernatorial elections, any that do occur in the run up to the elections are likely to be met with significant force from the government, as they look to continue to put pressure on the opposition.

In any event, as it has already placed constraints on MUD, the government will also not likely allow the opposition to secure a sizable political victory in the upcoming ballot. For this reason, large rallies on an almost daily-basis will likely resume after the ballot, even if the result is more favorable towards MUD than originally anticipated. However, although protests are likely to decrease in size and frequency leading up to the gubernatorial elections, any that do occur in the run up to the elections are likely to be met with significant force from the government, as they look to continue to put pressure on the opposition.

Will opposition protests and military defections continue leading up to gubernatorial elections? - Venezuela Analysis | MAX Security

Possibility of military defections remains amid general dissatisfaction towards government, lack of confidence among local officers

Despite the fact that the PSUV has long co-opted military cadres with party loyalists, the armed forces have not been spared from the economic crisis. Regular soldiers are purportedly lacking rations and provisions and dozens of ranking members of the military have reportedly been arrested in recent months for disobeying orders. In this context, as the economic and institutional situation in the country continues to deteriorate, the possibility of more army elements defecting or possibly taking arms against the government increases. That being said, it is difficult to understand the inner workings of the military and therefore to accurately predict the likelihood of a coup d’etat. However, armed instances are likely to be localized and take place outside of the capital, with personal and criminal motives at the center. Particularly, armed groups may look to carry out robberies and financially motivated raids in order to offset their lack of compensation from the government.As witnessed following the recent uprising in Valencia on August 6, rogue military elements could manifest as small groups of soldiers defecting outside of the capital and continuing to carry out criminal activities, or attempting to attack installations of security forces. Such criminal activities were particularly noted when on August 25 the Colombian government recorded small military elements crossing the border and carrying out robberies in the country. This assessment is further underscored by the distribution of the video on the so-called ‘Operation David’ by alleged security agents through social and conventional media. While at this point, there is no indication that such rogue groups would have the numbers to be able to mount a meaningful armed rebellion to topple the government, it is likely that further instances of nongovernmental armed actions will be witnessed over the coming weeks and months. Particularly if the government is seen to overstretch its suppression of democracy in the gubernatorial elections.

As witnessed following the recent uprising in Valencia on August 6, rogue military elements could manifest as small groups of soldiers defecting outside of the capital and continuing to carry out criminal activities, or attempting to attack installations of security forces. Such criminal activities were particularly noted when on August 25 the Colombian government recorded small military elements crossing the border and carrying out robberies in the country. This assessment is further underscored by the distribution of the video on the so-called ‘Operation David’ by alleged security agents through social and conventional media. While at this point, there is no indication that such rogue groups would have the numbers to be able to mount a meaningful armed rebellion to topple the government, it is likely that further instances of nongovernmental armed actions will be witnessed over the coming weeks and months. Particularly if the government is seen to overstretch its suppression of democracy in the gubernatorial elections.Moreover, in the event of sustained acts of defection or revolt, the ANC would likely grant emergency powers to President Maduro or Vice President Tareck El Aissami, who has already been given authority over the Venezuelan ‘Bolivarian’ intelligence agency, known as the SEBIN. El Aissami, who is suspected of having ties with drug cartels, is perceived as a hardliner with utmost contempt towards the opposition. For these reasons, any armed interventions would likely be met with a continuation of the trend of political repression in the country.

Moreover, in the event of sustained acts of defection or revolt, the ANC would likely grant emergency powers to President Maduro or Vice President Tareck El Aissami, who has already been given authority over the Venezuelan ‘Bolivarian’ intelligence agency, known as the SEBIN. El Aissami, who is suspected of having ties with drug cartels, is perceived as a hardliner with utmost contempt towards the opposition. For these reasons, any armed interventions would likely be met with a continuation of the trend of political repression in the country.

Recommendations

We advise against all travel to Venezuela at this time given the repeated instances of unrest and heightened levels of political violence. Those operating or residing in Venezuela are advised to initiate contingency and emergency evacuations plans due to the deterioration in the security situation. Contact us at [email protected] or +44 20-3540-0434 for itinerary and contingency support plans. Furthermore, those continuing to reside in the country over the coming days are advised to take necessary precautions to ensure personal safety and business continuity, including an adequate supply of food, water, and medicine. Those operating in Valencia are advised to remain indoors at a safe location while avoiding non-essential outdoor transit.

 

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