Kenya: Uptick in militant attacks underlines security forces’ inability to effectively combat militancy, fresh radicalization of Muslim youth [May 13, 2014]

A wave of bombings has taken place in Nairobi and Mombasa since the beginning of May, leaving seven people dead. The attacks are the manifestation of the growing threat of militancy in the country and underline the backlash from failed counter-militancy operations in Kenya as well as the ongoing successful military campaign of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) against al-Shabaab. Moreover, security officials warned on May 13 of fake messages circulating through text messages and social media regarding false alarms for militant attacks, which is indicative of a growing public obsession with and fear of the threat of militancy.

  • On May 3, coordinated attacks occurred in Mombasa, the country’s most important port city and a locale popular among foreign tourists. The first bomb attack targeted the Reef Hotel in the Nyali area of Mombasa, leaving only property damage. The second attack was conducted by unknown militant who threw a grenade at a gathering of people at a local bus station, leaving four people dead. No group claimed responsibility for the attack.
  • During the evening hours of May 4, twin bomb attacks on public transportation buses in northeast Nairobi killed three people and injured at least 86. Both buses were scheduled to travel outside of the capital along the Thika Superhighway and were reportedly blown up by the use of remotely detonated explosive devices.
  • On May 2, security forces engaged an estimated 30 militants, killing two, as the insurgents, armed with firearms and explosives, attempted to launch an attack on the Mandera power station in northeast Kenya . The incident occurred a day after a similar reported attack against a power station in nearby Wajir County.
  • Garissa County police forces and Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) thwarted a possible attack during the afternoon hours of May 5, after detonating a grenade noticed by bystanders at the Boystown Primary School playground.
  • In the aftermath of the recent attacks, Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta declared that the ongoing security crackdown in the country carried out by security forces against al-Shabaab affiliated militants will be intensified in order to bring the perpetrators to justice.

Assessments: Recent militant attacks likely retaliation for perception of security forces’ targeting of Muslim communities; growing public fear of attack likely to prompt additional crackdowns

  1. The deaths of six people on March 31 as a result of three simultaneous blasts in Nairobi’s predominantly Somali neighborhood of Eastleigh neighborhood prompted the Kenyan government to take radical action to show its populace that it is dealing with the increased militant threat and rising insecurity. Subsequently, security forces from various branches of the security establishment launched a large scale operation, locally known as Operation Usulama Watch, officially aimed at uprooting the area of militants affiliated with Somali-based al-Shabaab, and its Kenyan ally, al-Hijra. According to government sources, a total of 6,000 security officers took part in the counter-militancy operation, resulting in the detention of more than 4,000 suspected militants. It has been widely reported that a large portion of those detained in the operation were actually Somali refugees lacking proper documentation.
  2. The recent security operation against Somalis in Kenya’s urban centers has led to condemnation from both local Muslim communities and international human right organizations. Both groups have accused Kenyanauthorities of specifically targeting Somalis and violating the rights of those detained. Countering its intention of mitigating the threat of militancy, we assess that the operation has instead served to radicalize the increasingly disenfranchised Muslim Kenyan and Somali youth.
  3. Due to lack of employment and means of income, many Muslim youth in both Nairobi and Mombasa become easy targets of radical clerics in their recruitment drive to promote Sharia law throughout Kenya and in some cases, conduct militant attacks. These clerics often use the argument that the Kenyan government’s actions are part of a campaign to remove Islam from the country, which has in the past put them on a collision course with the security establishment. The radical clerics’ incessant anti-government position has contributed to the widespread belief within the Muslim community that the Police’s Anti Terrorism unit is responsible for the numerous assassinations of radical Islamic clerics over the past two years in the Coastal Region. Taken as a whole, the growing resentment of the Muslim community in the wake of the security operation will likely continue to lead to a fruitful breeding ground for recruitment of Muslim youth by radical elements, which subsequently is likely to facilitate the creation of further militant cells throughout the country.
  4. Since the attacks, there have been numerous discoveries of unattended parcels that have caused alarm and warranted the deployment of specialist police bomb squads. Thus far, these instances have not resulted in the discovery of explosives, but they are indicative of a growing public obsession with the threat of militancy, further underscored by the false alerts concerning militant attacks circulating over recent weeks. This development is likely to further pressure the government and security forces to take additional visible and public steps to decrease the threat of such attacks, including the continuation of large-scale arrests among the Somali population. The government will pursue its arrest campaign mainly due to a lack of other viable options, as it retains limited intelligence capabilities within tight-knit Muslim communities, while it is unlikely to be able to quickly create adequate employment opportunities to otherwise occupy the disenchanted youth.

Assessments: AMISOM gains in Somalia likely to continue to prompt exodus of al-Shabaab militants over porous Kenyanborder, increase radicalization of Muslim population

  1. Moreover, the security operation in Eastleigh comes amid reports that al-Shabaab militants from Somalia have been increasingly migrating into Kenya over the past few months, likely the result of the successful gains made by African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and Somali National Army (SNA) during the past six months against former strongholds of the group. AMISOM forces, which are superior in numbers and equipment in comparison to al-Shabaab, have managed to rout the insurgents from several key areas across Somalia, in addition to providing some relative calm to the capital, Mogadishu, in relation to the daily bombardments in March this year. The militants have been forced to withdraw to their traditional strongholds, mainly in order to avert a direct conventional confrontation with AMISOM forces, although guerilla style tactics such as car bombs and ambushes are still used against the African Union troops.
  2. Consequently, it is likely that the AMISOM offensive has greatly disrupted al-Shabaab’s network and means of income, leading to an increased exodus of militants seeking refuge across the porous border with Kenya. The increase in attacks in the northeastern regions of Mandera, Wajir and Garissa lends further credence to this assessment. Moreover, a natural relocation for al-Shabaab militants escaping the current international operation is Nairobi’s Eastleigh area, which hosts tens of thousands of Somali refugees, allowing them to hide among the local population. As such, the suspected increase in al-Shabaab militants crossing into Kenya to live in the Eastleigh neighborhood of Nairobi, in addition to the ongoing security operations have further served to radicalized the increasingly alienated Muslim youth of Nairobi and Mombasa, in turn prompting an uptick in militant attacks.
  3. In addition to Eastleigh, al-Shabaab militants will naturally seek refuge in Mombasa and throughout the Coastal Region, which is home to its Kenyan ally, al-Hijra, in addition to a large Muslim community that could be used for recruitment purposes. There has already been an uptick in religiously-motivated violence in Mombasa in previous months, with the most recent bout of unrest in April. Following the April violence in Mombasa,Kenyan authorities reportedly sent more than 700 additional security personnel to Mombasa and the outlying Coastal Region in the days leading up to the May 3 and 4 attacks, in an attempt to prevent such kinds of attacks from taking place. The fact that the bombings occurred despite the increase in security officials in the area underscores the both the limited intelligence capabilities of Kenyan forces in close-knit Muslim communities as well as the difficulty of detecting plans for  small-scale attacks.
  4. While the counter-militancy operations in Nairobi may have disrupted the ability of al-Shabaab and its affiliates to launch major and sophisticated attacks in Kenya, such as the Westgate Mall siege in September 2013 that left 67 people dead, we assess that this will likely be a short-term gain, given the entrenched radicalization of Muslim youths in the major urban centers. Moreover, the disruptions caused by the security operations have been unable to prevent the militant group’s ability to use small-scale tactics, such as the throwing of grenades in crowded areas or using improvised explosive devices (IEDs), as evidenced by the May 3 and 4 attacks. Low-level militant attacks of this nature are relatively easy to plan and execute, while being very difficult to detect and prevent. We assess that the usage of this modus operandi is likely to increase, particularly the targeting of public transportation vehicles and hubs, as well as churches and locales frequented by foreigners such as hotels and entertainment venues.