Tag Archives: travel security

Travel to Nairobi: Is Al Shabaab still a threat?

By Max Security’s Intelligence Department

In October 2011, the Kenyan military began a major operation in neighboring Somalia to root out one of Africa’s most notorious militant groups- Al Shabaab. The invasion added Kenya to the growing list of nations which have become embroiled in the fight to stabilize the troubled Horn of Africa, after previous campaigns by Ethiopia, Uganda, and International peacekeepers failed to do so. While the invasion itself initially resulted in rapid gains for the Kenyan Defence Forces, fear quickly rose in Kenyan urban centers over the fears of a massive retribution attack by Al Shabaab militants.

Those fears are certainly justified, especially given the numerous threats made by Al Shabaab leaders. First and foremost, Al Shabaab cells in Somalia have succeeded in carrying out complex and coordinated mass-casualty attacks in Mogadishu time and time again. In addition, a massive suicide bombing on World Cup viewers in Uganda in which over 60 people perished is also attributed to the Islamist group which is believed to have taken revenge on Uganda for its prominent role in peacekeeping operations in Somalia. Lastly, there are a considerable number of Somali citizens living around Kenya, while many Somali-Americans have returned to their homeland where their dual citizenship was utilized to carry out attacks. Lastly, Kenya itself has suffered a significant amount of high-profile attacks by Al Qaeda linked militants in the past, including a 2003 hotel bombing in Mombasa and the infamous 1998 American embassy bombings. Continue reading Travel to Nairobi: Is Al Shabaab still a threat? →

The Syrian Opposition’s Long Road to Victory

By Daniel N.

Only a dramatic escalation in the Syrian conflict will convince the world that Assad must fall

On December 2^nd, Syrian insurgents staged an attack on an Intelligence facility in northern Idlib province. Eight people were killed in the ensuing clashes, including several Air Force intelligence personnel. Like the high-profile attack on the Air Force intelligence headquarters in Damascus, the media rushed to portray this act along with recent calls for sanctions as the fall of another pillar signaling the imminent end of the Assad regime. The reality of the situation is that the Idlib attack symbolizes all that is plaguing Syrian opposition in its many forms.

The Idlib attack came hours after the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) insurgent group announced a decision to coordinate their resistance. Included in the agreement, was a pledge by the FSA to halt its offensive attacks, limiting its armed activity to protecting protest neighborhoods in flashpoint cities like Homs and Hama. The SNC, an umbrella body of various opposition groups in exile has been struggling to prove its legitimacy to the world, while the FSA has taken the spotlight with its high profile attacks, drawing concerns of the advent of a civil war in Syria. The nature of these groups and geographical and ideological divides between them continue to deter the international community from taking measures which would expedite Assad’s fall as they did Gaddafi.

Continue reading The Syrian Opposition’s Long Road to Victory →

Suicide Terrorism and Regional Autonomy: The Next Status Quo of Stability?

By Jay R.

Iraq has no doubt been plagued by security deficiencies throughout the last nine years of war, which have been capitalized on by both Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias alike. The attacks carried out by both parties have been frequently reported on in the media, making any Westerner think twice before visiting the country. Indeed, Iraq remains one of the world’s most dangerous travel destinations. But what needs special attention is that Iraq has the potential to be a stabilizing force in the Middle East amidst the many nations in its periphery that are attempting to rebuild themselves after popular revolution, or are still yet to go through the process.

Prime Minister al-Malaki meets with tribal leaders. Ongoing efforts for regional autonomy have called into question the viability of a strong central government.

Iraq is clearly going through some ‘growing pains’. It has a relatively weak central government which struggles to maintain a unified country with Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite provinces all desiring autonomous status. However, the central government has been claiming its power of late by arresting and expelling destabilizing elements that have alleged loyalties to the former Saddam-regime. It is going further by imposing restrictions on international companies who choose to ink deals with provincial governorates as opposed to Baghdad, thereby asserting itself as the nation’s sole dealer of oil and infrastructure contracts.

Oil and infrastructure; what will likely propel Iraqi GDP into double digits for consecutive years. These two elements are being seized quickly by a plethora of corporate entities looking to stake their claims on the emerging Iraqi economy. Iraq has the potential to take over Iran as the world’s second largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia. This small fact alone will almost guarantee the heavy influx of investments into Iraq in order to support the reconstruction of its oil industry.

The everyday Iraqi is frustrated with the government’s pace in rebuilding infrastructure. Protests to this regard occur almost on a daily basis. However, what do not seem to be appearing in these demonstrations are calls for the overthrowing of government. Iraq, when compared to its neighbors, is seasoned when it comes to holding free elections and its populace knows it. Iraqis by and large are a very proud people, with a proud history and may put aside their sectarian differences and work to solidify the position they believe Iraq can achieve. Continue reading Suicide Terrorism and Regional Autonomy: The Next Status Quo of Stability? →

Travel Security Analysis: Business travel to Lebanon: Is it safe?

By Max Security’s Intelligence Department

For decades, perceptions of Lebanon have been as conflicted as the country itself. The capital, Beirut has been dubbed by some as a focal point for terrorism and civil unrest, while others maintain that its vibrant culture and western lifestyle rival that of many European capitals. For the past decade, Lebanon has succeeded in restoring its pre-civil war glory, becoming one of the eastern-Mediterranean’s primary business and tourism hubs. Despite these advancements, the same sectarian and political divides which fueled years of armed conflict continue to cast a shadow over stability in Lebanon, threatening a complete collapse of stability at a moment’s notice. In July 2006, armed conflict between the Israeli military and the Hezbollah militia resulted in widespread damage the Beirut, as well as transportation and infrastructure throughout the country. In 2008, Hezbollah and other Shia factions staged an armed takeover of Beirut in a matter of hours after the government threatened to dismantle its telecommunications network at the city’s international airport.

Today, a number of issues threaten stability in Lebanon to the point where various nations have issued warnings against travel to the country. Continue reading Travel Security Analysis: Business travel to Lebanon: Is it safe? →

Is Iran Cornered?

By: Daniel N.

Recent statements and actions emanating from the Islamic Republic point to its increasing isolation and desperation.

On October 12, the Kuwaiti newspaper al-Qabas reported that Iran had informed Hezbollah that it would cut funding to the Shia militia by forty percent. The source cited the cutback as a result of growing economic sanctions and a diversion of resources to help Bashar Assad in his crackdown on the pro-reform movement. This action, along with several other events suggests that Iran’s regional standing may be eroding rapidly.

When the Arab Spring first erupted, it seemed apparent that Iran would gain an advantage over the West, with the first revolutions taking aim against unpopular, western-backed dictatorships. Tunisia’s Ben Ali, Yemen’s Saleh, Bahrain’s Khalifa, and Egypt’s Mubarak were all known as western allies and “moderate” leaders, and the popular uprisings against them proved to be an embarrassment to US foreign policy.

Continue reading Is Iran Cornered? →

Algeria is North Africa’s Last Line of Defense Against Islamic Extemism

By Daniel N.

Despite its repressive nature, Algeria’s Bouteflicka regime is the last remaining obstacle between Islamic extremists and the complete destabilization of North Africa.

While the world continues to focus on the implications of a destabilized Libya, Algeria has been working diligently to prevent a resurgent Al Qaeda from toppling its regime in its quest to install an Islamic Caliphate in the Maghreb region of North Africa. Since the Libyan conflict first broke out in February 2011, a wave of terror attacks has hit Algeria as the result of an increasingly porous border and the absence of Gaddafi, perhaps Bouteflicka’s most important ally in its war on terror.

For the past two decades, the secular regime of Abdelaziz Bouteflicka has been the target of local Islamic extremist groups that have recently extended their fight beyond Algeria, setting their sights on North Africa in its entirety. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) traces its roots back to a failed revolution attempt which began in 1992 when Algeria’s military government canceled the second round of parliamentary elections since it seemed evident that an Islamist coalition would take power. In the years that followed, Algeria descended into a bloody civil war as extremist groups led by the Armed Islamic Group (GIA) killed tens of thousands of civilians in their efforts to topple the government. Continue reading →

Erdogan Means Business

By Daniel N.

Meddling in the internal affairs of other nations, sending warships on provocative patrol routes, and threatening regional neighbors with war were, just a short time ago, actions which characterized only the Iranian regime’s pursuit of regional domination.

Amidst the sweeping changes brought about by the Arab Spring, Turkey has found a window of opportunity to demonstrate its competency and capability for assuming a lead role in the Middle East, abandoning its previous “zero problems” foreign policy in the process.

The “zero problems” approach to foreign policy was spearheaded by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu when the Justice and Development Party (AKP) party first came to power in 2002. The term refers to Turkey’s pledge to maintain peaceful relations with its neighbors, as long as they respect Turkey’s interests in return. For many years, Syria seemed to be the major benefactor of this policy even though the two nations almost went to war in the early 1990’s over President Bashar al-Assad’s alleged support of Kurdish separatists. Under the “zero problems” policy, Syria became one of Turkey’s primary trading partners, and at one point the two nations were conducting joint cabinet meetings. Continue reading Erdogan Means Business →

All Eyes on Hezbollah

By Daniel N.

If at any point it feels that its survival is at stake, Hezbollah will not hesitate to unleash chaos and ignite the Lebanese powder keg.

Following the 2006 Lebanon War, Hezbollah was widely regarded as one of the last eminent Arab forces to successfully confront the Israelis – and to seemingly defeat them on many fronts. The powerful images of destroyed Merkava tanks and Israeli funerals provided the predominately Sunni Muslim world with a new hero, despite the fact that Hezbollah is a Shi’ite organization and widely considered to be an Iranian puppet. Even though the war devastated Lebanon, Hezbollah utilized the political capital it gained from the prisoner swap with Israel to topple the pro-western government then led by Sa’ad Hariri, forcing his party into the opposition.

However, the events of the Arab Spring tarnished Hezbollah’s image in Lebanon and the Arab world. Hezbollah’s staunch, vocal support for Syrian President Bashar Assad throughout his brutal crackdown on pro-reform protesters suddenly placed the organization on the side of the oppressor. Of course, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had no choice – Syria is one of his primary suppliers of weapons, finances and support. It has been disclosed by the Syrian opposition that Hezbollah fighters are actually assisting in suppressing demonstrations, quite possibly in collusion with members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
Continue reading All Eyes on Hezbollah →