Tag Archives: risk assessment

The Middle East and North Africa In 2012: What Lies Ahead?

By Max Security’s Intelligence Department

The feelings of hope and opportunity initially evoked by the Arab Spring have evolved into fear that the region may be sliding into a new status quo of instability. We sweep the region from Morocco to Iran to determine that 2012 will be one of the most crucial years in the modern history of the Middle East.

The Maghreb

The Muslim Brotherhood’s recently formed Freedom and Justice Party holds a press conference. The FJP is slated to win nearly 40% of seats in Egypt’s first post-Mubarak parliament. (Bikyamasr)

While North Africa by and large experienced the most significant change from the Arab Spring uprisings, it would be a grave mistake to place the fate of these politically diverse set of nations into one.  In Morocco, the people still have great respect for the region’s oldest monarchy, sentiment which prevented widespread unrest from engulfing the nation this past year. The recent victory of moderate Islamist factions in parliament forces the monarchy to balance between their wishes, while keeping Morocco an attractive address for foreign investment to keep the economy on its feet. While Morocco can be expected to remain relatively stable, a widening gap between rich and poor and growing unemployment only works to the favor of the liberal February 20 reformers and the outlawed Islamist Justice and Spirituality movement, which currently remain marginalized.

In Algeria, the situation is quite different. The country emerged unscathed from the Arab Spring, not out of any sort of respect for the military-backed government, but rather out of fears for a repeat of the country’s bloody civil war which is still fresh in the minds of most of the population. While stability prevailed in 2011, tensions are brewing beneath the surface as Algerians come to realize that they are indeed the last nation to tolerate a corrupt military dictatorship which has failed to provide both physical and economic security. The success of Islamist parties to the East and West has emboldened Algeria’s own conservative opposition to demand reforms ahead of the upcoming elections-slated for the Spring of 2012. Moreover Bouteflika’s ailing health places the military and its allies in a considerable predicament, as replacing Bouteflika without elections will only provide fuel to an increasingly disillusioned population. The loss of the Bouteflika regime would spell a considerable setback in North Africa’s war against Al Qaeda, which despite recent losses- still has its sights set on fomenting instability in Algeria.

Continue reading The Middle East and North Africa In 2012: What Lies Ahead?

What’s Behind the Iranian Naval Drills

By Max Security’s Intelligence Department

Upcoming naval exercises are the Islamic Republic’s language of choice for highlighting the detrimental impact of a Western military strike on the global economy.

The Strait of Hormuz. (Google Earth)

Iranian officials announced that their armed forces will commence a 10-day naval exercise on December 24, stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden. The announcement comes after several US defense officials issued strong warnings against the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions, while Saudi Arabia announced its intentions to form a unified foreign policy for Gulf Cooperation States. In addition, Israel has announced increased military cooperation on a number of fronts, including renewed cooperation with the Turkish air force, and large scale anti-missile drills with United States scheduled for the Spring of 2012.

The upcoming maneuvers are meant as a message against the West and its regional allies, who in recent days have increased their rhetoric against the Islamic Republic. Naval exercises, missile drills, and land maneuvers are common forms of response after opponents make provocative statements. Continue reading What’s Behind the Iranian Naval Drills

Bahrain’s Opposition: Business Continuity in the Crosshairs

By Max Security’s Intelligence Department

The Shia-led opposition does not aim to directly threaten foreigners doing business in the capital, they instead seek to make Manama a generally less attractive place to do business.

A protester displays his allegence to the “February 14” opposition movement. Roadblocks and tire burning are some of the tactics employed by the opposition to disrupt daily life in Bahrain.

This week, Bahrain’s Shia opposition groups are engaging in a multi-faceted campaign of civil disobedience dubbed “Week Promised To Martyrs,” in reference to activists killed in clashes with security forces which took place the previous week. On December 18, calls rang out through YouTube, twitter, and other social media networks for sympathizers to take to the streets across the small island. Their goal- disrupt day-to-day life in a non-violent manner in order to draw attention to the Shia majority’s struggle for equality.

The “Week Promised to Martyrs” employs many of the same tactics as similar demonstrations which have taken place week in and week out since the initial February uprising ended in the destruction of the iconic Pearl Square Roundabout. Mourning processions were to take place in Shia suburbs outside of Manama on December 20, while protesters were expected to block the Budaiya highway, a main traffic artery connecting the villages of the northern governorate with the capital of Manama.  In addition, calls were made to march to the former Pearl Square roundabout to stage a sit in.
Continue reading Bahrain’s Opposition: Business Continuity in the Crosshairs

Assad is No Moammar Gaddafi

By Jay R.

The minimal support provided to Syrian revolutionaries from abroad will only amount to a longer, bloodier conflict. 

The Syrian uprising began nine months ago, when in March, thousands of pro-reform demonstrators took to the streets in Deraa to denounce the Assad regime. Since that time, thousands of civilians have been killed and the country has arguably declined into civil war.

Troops on their way to Deraa in southern Syria.

Just a month before the streets of Deraa erupted, the world’s attention was on Benghazi. Libyans had also taken to the streets in similar fashion, who were likewise met with live ammunition by Ghaddafi’s forces. The events in Benghazi escalated to civil war in their own right; however the end of hostilities there has already arrived.

The primary reason for the end of Libyan hostilities was the overwhelming support that opposition forces received from the international community. It only took two weeks from the time the Libyan people demanded change in their country for the world to begin its assistance, when it froze Gaddafi’s and his inner circle’s assets, limited their travel, and referred the lot to the International Criminal Court. In just the following month, the United Nations approved a resolution to enforce a no-fly-zone, which included using “all necessary measures” to thwart attacks on the citizenry. The aforesaid resolution subsequently led to a new Libyan government, which was recognized by the United Nations, in just seven month’s time.

Meanwhile, across the Mediterranean, the Syrian uprising is entering its nine month and the disparity between the two revolutions is vast. Assad is still in power, and his efforts to quell the revolution in his country persist as unabated as scores of people are being killed every day. However, it must be noted that the Syrian opposition, as did the Libyan counterpart, formed its own National Council of rebel organizations. Continue reading Assad is No Moammar Gaddafi

Suicide Terrorism and Regional Autonomy: The Next Status Quo of Stability?

By Jay R.

Iraq has no doubt been plagued by security deficiencies throughout the last nine years of war, which have been capitalized on by both Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias alike. The attacks carried out by both parties have been frequently reported on in the media, making any Westerner think twice before visiting the country. Indeed, Iraq remains one of the world’s most dangerous travel destinations. But what needs special attention is that Iraq has the potential to be a stabilizing force in the Middle East amidst the many nations in its periphery that are attempting to rebuild themselves after popular revolution, or are still yet to go through the process.

Prime Minister al-Malaki meets with tribal leaders. Ongoing efforts for regional autonomy have called into question the viability of a strong central government.

Iraq is clearly going through some ‘growing pains’. It has a relatively weak central government which struggles to maintain a unified country with Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite provinces all desiring autonomous status. However, the central government has been claiming its power of late by arresting and expelling destabilizing elements that have alleged loyalties to the former Saddam-regime. It is going further by imposing restrictions on international companies who choose to ink deals with provincial governorates as opposed to Baghdad, thereby asserting itself as the nation’s sole dealer of oil and infrastructure contracts.

Oil and infrastructure; what will likely propel Iraqi GDP into double digits for consecutive years. These two elements are being seized quickly by a plethora of corporate entities looking to stake their claims on the emerging Iraqi economy. Iraq has the potential to take over Iran as the world’s second largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia. This small fact alone will almost guarantee the heavy influx of investments into Iraq in order to support the reconstruction of its oil industry.

The everyday Iraqi is frustrated with the government’s pace in rebuilding infrastructure. Protests to this regard occur almost on a daily basis. However, what do not seem to be appearing in these demonstrations are calls for the overthrowing of government. Iraq, when compared to its neighbors, is seasoned when it comes to holding free elections and its populace knows it. Iraqis by and large are a very proud people, with a proud history and may put aside their sectarian differences and work to solidify the position they believe Iraq can achieve. Continue reading Suicide Terrorism and Regional Autonomy: The Next Status Quo of Stability?