Tag Archives: ocalan

Intelligence Analysis: Domestic and Regional Factors in Turkish-Israeli Reconciliation

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on March 22 and offered Israel’s apology for the 2010 ‘Mavi Marmara’ incident. In that incident, nine Turkish nationals were killed by Israeli Special Forces who raided the Marmara as it sailed to the Gaza Strip as part of a larger flotilla. The incident resulted in an unprecedented crisis in the relations between the two countries, with Turkey demanding an official apology before restoring ties between the two nations.

Israeli-Turkish relations cooled after the 2010 Marmara incident.
Israeli-Turkish relations cooled after the 2010 Marmara incident.

The recent development was reportedly mediated by the US administration, and particularly by Secretary of State John Kerry, who arrived in Israel on March 19 ahead of President Obama’s visit. The President himself was present at the time of the conversation between the two leaders on March 22, shortly before leaving to Jordan.

Netanyahu apologized for operational mistakes that led to the loss of life, and pledged to compensate the families of those killed via a humanitarian fund. He also stressed that Israel has lifted certain limitations on the entry of civilian goods to the Gaza Strip in the time that passed since the incident. Those three have issues constituted Turkey’s demands for reconciliation since the incident.

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Intelligence Analysis: Risks of PKK-Turkey disarmament talks

In recent weeks, dialogue efforts between the Turkish government and Abdullah Ocalan, a prominent imprisoned Kurdish separatist leader have intensified, with the stated aim of disarming the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), after three decades of conflict and over 40,000 deaths. On January 8, Turkish media outlets published reports which cautiously indicated that negotiations with Ocalan had yielded a potential four-point roadmap for PKK disarmament in exchange for minority rights and amnesty for thousands of Kurdish prisoners in Turkish jails. Notably, calls for Kurdish autonomy in Turkey were not mentioned as part of Ocalan’s demands.

Kurdish PKK militants stand in formation.
Kurdish PKK militants stand in formation.

While the both sides have refused to verify reports of an agreement, the Erdogan administration did concede that pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) deputy Ayla Akat Ata and Kurdish politician Ahmet Turk met with Ocalan on December 29 on Imrali Island, where he has been imprisoned since 1999.   Until that visit, the infamous PKK founder had only been permitted to speak with Turkish military and intelligence officials. Ocalan, long considered the godfather of terrorism in Turkey, reportedly told the Kurdish lawmakers that the time for armed struggle has ended.

2012 was reported as the deadliest year of PKK related violence in over a decade with a noticeable uptick in civilian casualties. While the PKK has traditionally focused its attacks on Turkish security installations and personnel, the recent spike in attacks targeting civilians suggests more radical offshoots such as the the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) are gaining influence.  With that being said, Ankara’s renewed efforts to formulate a ceasefire are likely an attempt to quell the increased radicalism within the Kurdish separatist camp while also attempting to discontinue the perpetuation of the Turkish-Kurdish conflict over the long term.

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