Nigeria’s Struggle for Stability

By Jay R.   

Sectarian-fueled insurgency, secessionist movements, and widespread discontent amongst the population are just some of the issues facing Nigeria’s first truly democratically elected leader.

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathon

After his election, there was great hope for President Goodluck Jonathon amongst the populace. He was elected with 57% of the vote, after receiving significant support from the Nigeria’s youth, a key demographic in a nation whose average age is 19.  To them he represented a change from the past and would bring Nigeria to realize its true potential as Africa’s most populous nation with a plethora of oil and mineral resources.

It is clear now however, that charisma alone is not sufficient to rule a country that is so deeply rooted with sectarian divide and government corruption.  Jonathan’s obstacles were evident from the beginning when on that Election Day in April 2011, the predominantly Muslim northern states erupted in violent response to Jonathan’s success, leaving hundreds of people dead in the streets. 

It was not simply the election of a Christian southerner that led the Muslim north to vent their dismay. Nigeria’s ethno-religious divides are so numerous that attempting to account for them all would be impractical and nearly impossible, but the divide between Christian and Muslim is now the most apparent of all.

Jonathan presides from the Presidential Complex, situated in the provincial capital Abuja, purposely affixed in the country’s center to not show deference towards the Christian south or the Muslim north. But, in this locale, the federal government has the best vantage point to see the various conflicts erupting around it.

From the Muslim north’s Borno State, the Islamist militant group, Boko Haram, has resurged in recent weeks, showing its newfound ability to launch sophisticated attacks with a reach that spans the entire country. This reappearance has shaken the Christian population as their neighborhoods and places have fallen under threat of attack.

In response, President Jonathan, enacted a state of emergency, and shut the nation’s borders as it was now clear that the group was receiving funds and training from Al Qaeda elements elsewhere on the continent. While this swift action appears to be the most appropriate response, it will likely not aid the deteriorating security situation in the long term.

While founded only recently, Boko Haram has already managed to infiltrate all levels of the Nigerian government, security apparatus and military, whether it be card-carrying members or sympathizers of the group. Nevertheless, such infiltration has made combating the group a nearly insurmountable feat. Reports indicate that military patrols purposely avoid areas in which they know Boko Haram to be operating. Thus, whether it is fear of confrontation, or actual collusion, Boko Haram has nearly free reign for its operations in the Muslim north.

South of Abuja, towards the Niger Delta – the hub of Nigeria’s vast oil and mineral resources, the local population has become further enraged by Jonathon’s policies. This rise, it must be mentioned, did not appear with Jonathan’s election, but has been a persistent problem since the 1970s, when Nigeria allowed international energy companies to exploit the land and the people of the Niger Delta, which unchecked has resulted in catastrophic circumstances for the native people and their land.

This situation spawned the rise of militant secessionist movements from the local populations in the Delta regions, who now take part in destroying oil infrastructure, while kidnapping foreign oil workers. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has been the most active of such groups and frequently carries out the aforementioned attacks. The situation in the Niger Delta is another primary reason that Nigeria cannot realize its full potential and it does not appear that the government plans to remedy this issue in the short term.

Nigerian government officials firmly believe in the idea of “prebendalism”, in which they are entitled to profit directly from the nation’s resources. Such direct control over the revenues of the oil industry, which accounts for approximately 95% of Nigeria’s export business, has not created sufficient desire amongst bureaucrats for overhauling the system, which in turn has come at the expense of the entire population.

Through their “prebendalist” ideas, government officials have accumulated hundreds of billions of dollars for their personal wealth. Therefore, when the government attempted to slash the fuel subsidy earlier this month, the one benefit Nigerians attain from their oil wealth, it incited tens of thousands of people to take to the street.

It is widely known that Nigeria cannot afford to maintain its fuel subsidy as it costs the country $8 billion per year to maintain. However, when you have a populace that is bearing the brunt of government corruption and mismanagement over the one viable resource that could bring the country out of a situation where poverty and unemployment is rampant, there is sure to be outcry from the public and in tern, diminished support for President Jonathon.

President Jonathan, representative of change through some progressive ideas not seen in the country since its independence decades ago, is likely a man before his time. The amount of institutionalized corruption and sectarian divide will provide for a mountainous challenge to achieve real reform in what has become Africa’s most strategically important nation.

Concerned about stability in Sub-Saharan Africa? Click here.