By Dan R.

The discovery of natural gas off the shores of Cyprus and Israel in the eastern Mediterranean has marked the beginning of a new chapter in the Middle East conflict. Reports began to surface last week, claiming that Israeli Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, will discuss the stationing of Israeli fighter jets at a Cypriot airbase on his visit to the island nation on February 16. If such reports prove to be accurate, the event has the potential to be a revolutionary strategic alliance. However, the aforementioned discussions may in fact be purely an Israeli negotiating tactic in an effort to bridge the rift between it and its former ally Turkey. The Middle East is widely known as the staging ground for the Arab-Israeli conflict. Yet, there is a lesser known conflict, greatly overshadowed by that between Israel and her Arab neighbors – that which involves Turkey and Cyprus. The conflict between Turkey and Cyprus, like the Arab-Israeli, also has a history of bloody confrontation on religion, ethnicity, territory and recognition. However, the aspect that reaches headlines above all others is the ongoing dispute over natural gas deposits that lay off the Cypriot southern coast. The discovery launched a thus far rhetorical battle over drilling rights between Greek Cyprus and Turkey as the patron of the Greek Republic’s breakaway Turkish Cypriot counterpart. American-operated natural gas exploration site Noble Ferrington Israel has developed and maintained several natural gas drilling and pumping platforms in the eastern Mediterranean Sea in its Exclusive Economic Zone. Moreover, Israeli companies, such as Delek, own a significant share of drilling platforms in Cyprus. Israel thus, likely sees the natural gas reserves as a strategic asset that is vital to ensure Israel’s economic and energy independence. Israel is well known for its determination and dedication with regard to the protection of its interests positioned outside its borders. That said, the stationing of a permanent air force operation base on foreign soil would essentially be a revolution in Israeli military affairs. If the reports are true, this will be the first time that Israel will deploy IDF airmen outside the borders of Israel (not including Palestinian territories), a step that would likely require legislative action. When examining the tactical, operational, and strategic military benefits for a deployment of fighter jets in Cyprus, one would have to assess the constant parameters, like the distance from drilling and pumping platforms, coupled with reaction and flight time. Upon their inspection, one would discover that the distance to such drilling installations from either the Cypriot or Israeli air bases is negligible. The similar distances thus make the disproportion in reaction and flight time only a matter of a few seconds, and therefore, providing no significant tactical, operational, or strategic benefits. Read more »

Syria’s military is escalating its offensive on the country’s Sunni rebels; however the violence in Syria is not likely to end in the near future, even if Assad is ousted. To that point, Damascus has been unable to implement a strategy capable of ending the eleven-month Sunni uprising, likewise the opposition has yet to oust the regime from power.

Syria’s sectarian fault-lines have been drawn for centuries and the opposition has been unsuccessful in diminishing the importance of such divisions. Most importantly, they failed to convince Assad’s forces to defect en mass, thus Syria’s military remains a cohesive, effective, and motivated fighting force. Meanwhile, Al-Qaeda’s recent call for jihad against the Alawite regime will be unhelpful in persuading minorities to abandon it. Furthermore, Damascus has prepared for an internal Sunni uprising for over four decades and while many are quick to predict Assad’s demise, his ouster would not end the sectarian conflict in Syria. Ultimately, the conflict’s sectarian character, which is often overlooked, along with several other important factors is leading to a long and bloody civil war in Syria. Read more »

By Jay R.

The collapse of Africa’s most populous nation into civil war may hinge on the stability of one unsuspecting middle belt city

Nigeria’s Middle Belt region is where the country’s Christian south and Muslim north come to a head. This convergence of religion manifests in the capital Abuja, where the equally represented populations are generally tolerant of one another. In the nearby city of Jos whose societal make up is starkly similar to the capital, religious intolerance is brewing tension to a dangerous boiling point.

Security forces rush to intervene in sectarian clashes in Jos

Over the last twenty years, Jos has been plagued by sectarian violence which has claimed thousands of lives while displacing many others. In 2010, week-long riots resulted in the death of hundreds of locals and the destruction of churches and mosques alike. This steady campaign of attacks against places of worship has made chances of reconciling these populations a seemingly insurmountable feat. The people of Jos may not yet be cognizant of this fact, but the deteriorating security situation in the rest of Nigeria may have a far more tragic impact in a place with a deeply rooted history of intolerance.

Nigeria’s predominantly Muslim north has become increasingly engulfed in a violent campaign by fundamentalist violence. On January 20, Nigeria’s second city of Kano was devastated by a wave of bombings by Boko Haram Jihadists against military, police, and government installations, killing upwards of 250 people. Continuous attacks like these, along with a previous Boko Haram warning for all Christians to leave the northern states, have incited nearly 35,000 people to flee southward thus far.

These newly created refugees, who are leaving with such panic and haste that they are not bothering to bring their most valuable of possessions with them, are making way for Jos. Positioned just outside of the Muslim north, Jos provides a convenient safe haven for Christian refugees as they journey towards the friendlier south. As many of those refugees opt to remain in Jos, they threaten to alter the delicate sectarian balance in the city, paving the way for shattering the city’s hard-won peace. Read more »

Reforming much-hated security forces are the first step in resolving the Island nation’s sectarian conflict before it deteriorates further.

As Bahrain braces for the year anniversary of the outbreak of its protest movement, worrying trends are beginning to emerge in the activity of its Shia-led activist groups. Since February 14 2011, the opposition’s modus operandi consisted of mostly civil disobedience acts aimed at drawing the world’s attention to the inequality facing the Shia majority. In past months however, activists have stepped up acts of violence, mainly aimed at security forces, whose alleged brutality has come to symbolize their oppression at the hands of the Sunni monarchy. 

An opposition activist runs from riot police in Bahrain.

On January 24, opposition groups launched a campaign dubbed “the Rebel’s grip” aimed at expelling the regime’s security forces from Shia villages in the central and northern parts of the Island. The campaign comes days after a prominent Shia cleric issued a particularly scathing sermon, calling for supporters to assault any security personnel suspected of attacking female protesters.  The opposition’s rage towards security forces comes after a year of high profile incidents involving protesters’ deaths as a result of police brutality. Many of these incidents were caught on video, spread through social media and ingrained in the minds of activists.  

Read more »

By Daniel N.

Despite the media’s love affair with the anti-SCAF activist movement, the Egyptian revolution has already been secretly decided.

Traffic returns to Cairo's Tahrir Square after thousands gathered for events marking the January 25 anniversary.

After the tense buildup to the anniversary of the revolution, Egypt’s new ruling elite can breathe a sigh of relief. While tens of thousands of liberal activists swarmed Tahrir Square agains
t the military leadership, they failed to rehash the nationwide anger which led to the ousting of Hosni Mubarak on January 25 of last year.  It seems clear that after a year of political unrest, sectarian violence, civil strikes, and economic turmoil, the majority of Egyptians have opted to ensure their security, even if it means forgoing the original goals of the revolution. This security has been achieved by the emergence of a new balance of power, carefully negotiated against the backdrop of parliamentary elections between the Muslim Brotherhood and the ruling military council. 

This shadowy agreement first became evident in November 2011, when liberal activists engulfed Downtown Cairo in rioting, threatening stability before the onset of parliamentary elections. While the media flocked to Mohammed Mahmoud Street to capture romantic images of stone-throwing youth, Muslim Brotherhood leaders secretly met with SCAF officials to decipher a way to end the violence in a mutually beneficial manner.

Read more »

by Jay R.

The status quo in Cyprus does not provide the needed atmosphere for reuniting the island. 

Cyprus remains divided under Turkish and Greek influences.

After decades of partition, Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders are set to meet once again at Greentree Estate in Long Island, New York, under United Nations auspices.  So, one must ask, after decades-long negotiations, why should we expect a different outcome after the two-day talks beginning on January 23? The answer, we probably should not. 

As many experts on conflict resolution will say, the most appropriate atmosphere for resolution is that both sides are a party to a mutually hurting stalemate (MHS) – a condition in which neither side feels that it can gain from the current situation.  Looking at the disparity that exists between Greek and Turkish Cyprus, it is clear that the status quo is more viable for Greek Cypriots over their Turkish counterparts.  Read more »

By Jay R.   

Sectarian-fueled insurgency, secessionist movements, and widespread discontent amongst the population are just some of the issues facing Nigeria’s first truly democratically elected leader. 

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathon

After his election, there was great hope for President Goodluck Jonathon amongst the populace. He was elected with 57% of the vote, after receiving significant support from the Nigeria’s youth, a key demographic in a nation whose average age is 19.  To them he represented a change from the past and would bring Nigeria to realize its true potential as Africa’s most populous nation with a plethora of oil and mineral resources.

It is clear now however, that charisma alone is not sufficient to rule a country that is so deeply rooted with sectarian divide and government corruption.  Jonathan’s obstacles were evident from the beginning when on that Election Day in April 2011, the predominantly Muslim northern states erupted in violent response to Jonathan’s success, leaving hundreds of people dead in the streets.  Read more »

By Daniel N.

In the absence of collective nationalism, the transitional government must buy the loyalty of renegade militias with resources it may not have.

Libya's new flag.

Libya is currently undergoing a critical phase of its transition process, as the recognized government (NTC) attempts to assert its power over the country. The focal point of these efforts lies at the reformation of the Libyan national military. In post Gaddafi-Libya, this feat requires garnering the trust of powerful tribal militias, many of whom are reluctant to relinquish their hard-fought positions acquired during the civil war. 

Efforts to establish a national military reached a crucial phase in January, when the NTC named Yussef Al-Mangush as chief of staff.  The appointment has since been rejected by two powerful coalitions of tribal militias; the Thwars coalition, which includes the Misrata and Zintan factions; and the Cyrenaica Military Council (CMC), composed of militias in eastern Libya. Read more »

By Daniel N.

One unsuspecting Bekaa Valley village has become the focal point of the battle for perceptions of the Syrian conflict.

Lebanese soldiers stand guard near the Syrian border. (El Riyadh)

Immediately after another deadly suicide bombing ripped through central Damascus on Friday, the Assad Regime, the Syrian opposition, and their allies abroad unloaded accusations as to the identity of the perpetrators. While opposition’s assertion of a regime-orchestrated conspiracy has fallen on deaf ears around the world, this latest bombing certainly bolsters Assad’s claim that radical Al Qaeda-linked militants have joined the ranks of collective struggle to topple him.  Regardless of the actual perpetrators, both Assad and the opposition understand that perceptions of Syria descending into sectarian chaos only further cement the international community’s hesitation to expedite his ousting. At the base of Assad’s claims lies the town of Arsal, a sleepy village in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, whose unsuspecting citizens have become embroiled in a heated debate which may just decide the outcome of the Syrian conflict.

Arsal was catapulted into the global spotlight immediately after twin car bombings struck Damascus on December 23, 2011. After the attacks, Syrian officials based their claims of Al Qaeda involvement on statements made days prior by Lebanese Defense Minister Fayez Ghosn, who stated that Jihadists were infiltrating into Syria through illegal border crossings. Ghosn claimed that Arsal, a Sunni village of 40,000 people located 35 kilometers from the Syrian border, had become a hotbed for these activities. The statements sparked outrage amongst Arsal’s residents, who claimed that there was little evidence to suggest that the town was harboring Al Qaeda extremists. While village elders admitted that some local mosques were known as bastions of fundamentalism, they enjoyed little influence over the town’s residents.  In the days that followed, Arsal became the focal point of a heated debate in Lebanon over the existence of Al Qaeda extremists in the country.  Read more »

By Jay R.

What does a ‘leaner’ American military mean for the Middle East? In a word: Proxies. 

President Obama addresses reporters from the Pentagon.

On January 5, President Barak Obama announced from the Pentagon that the American defense budget was going to see significant cuts – approximately 500 billion dollars over the next ten years. The announcement sounded alarms both at home and abroad, with many concerned that the United States would surely lose its military superiority and squander its influence in the Middle East. However, such concerns are baseless and unfounded as the United States will continue to maintain a military budget that is greater than the next top ten military spenders combined. 

Over the last decade, the United States has been involved in two counterinsurgency wars – Iraq and Afghanistan – totaling a cost of nearly 1.3 trillion dollars. Participation in the Iraq conflict has ended and the US is slowly drawing down its forces in Afghanistan in anticipation of a 2014 exit. The ending of these two wars will significantly absorb the budgetary cuts that the Obama administration is planning. Furthermore, the United States government and citizenry alike have lost all appetite for any military commitment that would result in the deployment of its troops to the Middle East again, therefore diminishing the likelihood for their reappearance anytime soon.    Read more »

By Ron G. and Daniel N. 

Despite the risks, both the SCAF and the Muslim Brotherhood have much to gain by exploiting anti-western conspiracies which are rooted in Egyptian Society.

Egypt continues to reel from the aftermath of the recent high profile raids against foreign-backed NGO’s by state security forces.   Egyptian human rights watchdogs have condemned the raids as an effort by the SCAF to subdue the groups which are fomenting criticism against its policies, while ignoring the large amounts of funds being illicitly transferred to Islamist parties from the Persian Gulf.  The United States and European Union have also stepped up their criticism, with Washington hinting at cutting off its longtime financial aid package. 

Soldiers stand guard during a raid on a pro-democracy NGO headquarters in Cairo.

The American threats have sparked an outcry amongst Egypt’s conservative groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party, which is slated emerge the dominant party in parliamentary elections. The FJP’s legal advisor, Ahmad Abu-Baraka, said on Sunday that the party will ask the newly-elected parliament to abolish the US aid, which he claimed “serves as a means to interfere with Egypt’s internal issues’; reportedly adding that ‘America and its money can go to hell”. 

American foreign aid to Egypt is estimated at roughly 2 billion dollars annually, with $1.3 billion infused to military support. Egypt has enjoyed this financial support since the signing of the peace treaty with Israel in 1979, in which the aid was a crucial factor in keeping the country’s crumbling economy functioning at a basic level. Most recently, governmental officials have warned that Egypt’s national economy is currently facing its most serious crisis in years. Since the January 2011 revolution, the economy has suffered repeated blows to tourism and foreign investment as a result of the unrest, in addition to ongoing attacks on its natural gas pipeline in the Sinai Peninsula. Read more »

By Gabi A.

Getting the oil flowing again is a basic requirement for the success of any future government.

An oil pipeline in Northern Yemen.

Even as fears of continued factional conflict continue to attract media attention, the question of economic stability and sustainability in Yemen has barely received the consideration needed to avoid a spiral into the status of a failed state. The interim government in the country faces difficult political challenges in the weeks ahead as it prepares for what many observers are hoping will be the country’s first free election. The head of the interim government, Vice President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, is already facing calls to resign as protests continue to rage in the streets of the capital city of Sanaa with demonstrators facing off against forces loyal to now supposedly deposed President Ali Abdullah Saleh. 

The destruction brought on by the nearly-ten-month uprising against the regime of Saleh has wreaked havoc not only on the delicate political system but also on the nation’s oil production infrastructure that provides the lifeblood for the economy. Oil exports are responsible for somewhere between 60-70% of government revenues and 90% of overall national exports.      Read more »

By Max Security’s Intelligence Department

The feelings of hope and opportunity initially evoked by the Arab Spring have evolved into fear that the region may be sliding into a new status quo of instability. We sweep the region from Morocco to Iran to determine that 2012 will be one of the most crucial years in the modern history of the Middle East.

The Maghreb

The Muslim Brotherhood's recently formed Freedom and Justice Party holds a press conference. The FJP is slated to win nearly 40% of seats in Egypt's first post-Mubarak parliament. (Bikyamasr)

While North Africa by and large experienced the most significant change from the Arab Spring uprisings, it would be a grave mistake to place the fate of these politically diverse set of nations into one.  In Morocco, the people still have great respect for the region’s oldest monarchy, sentiment which prevented widespread unrest from engulfing the nation this past year. The recent victory of moderate Islamist factions in parliament forces the monarchy to balance between their wishes, while keeping Morocco an attractive address for foreign investment to keep the economy on its feet. While Morocco can be expected to remain relatively stable, a widening gap between rich and poor and growing unemployment only works to the favor of the liberal February 20 reformers and the outlawed Islamist Justice and Spirituality movement, which currently remain marginalized.  

In Algeria, the situation is quite different. The country emerged unscathed from the Arab Spring, not out of any sort of respect for the military-backed government, but rather out of fears for a repeat of the country’s bloody civil war which is still fresh in the minds of most of the population. While stability prevailed in 2011, tensions are brewing beneath the surface as Algerians come to realize that they are indeed the last nation to tolerate a corrupt military dictatorship which has failed to provide both physical and economic security. The success of Islamist parties to the East and West has emboldened Algeria’s own conservative opposition to demand reforms ahead of the upcoming elections-slated for the Spring of 2012. Moreover Bouteflika’s ailing health places the military and its allies in a considerable predicament, as replacing Bouteflika without elections will only provide fuel to an increasingly disillusioned population. The loss of the Bouteflika regime would spell a considerable setback in North Africa’s war against Al Qaeda, which despite recent losses- still has its sights set on fomenting instability in Algeria.

Read more »

By Ron G. 

Unfortunately for Hamas, the Gaza Strip remains a negligible pawn on the Middle East chessboard, a playing card to be used by regional powers when it suits them most. 

Tension in southern Israel remains high after the Israeli Air Force targeted a smuggling tunnel and another terror-related facility in the Gaza Strip following the fire of four Kassam rockets into Southern Israel on December 28. The recent exchange of fire was triggered by the targeted killing of two militants in the Gaza Strip on December 27, who according to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) were en-route to commit a terror attack along the country’s southern border with Egypt. At least one of the militants killed in the raid was reportedly an Islamic Jihad member. 

Islamic Jihad militants march in Rafah.

Until now, the Islamic Jihad’s response has been  relatively mild. In previous instances, the militant group responded by firing larger salvos of rockets into Israel, and to greater distances. The mild response can be attributed to a number of factors. First and foremost, the group has suffered serious losses in its recent skirmishes with Israel, especially during the months of August, September and October. Second, the Islamic Jihad is being restrained by Hamas, who controls the Gaza Strip and has a low interest in escalating the situation at this point. Lastly the group is being pressured by both Fatah and Hamas to avoid an escalation at a time when reconciliation talks between Palestinian factions are underway. 

Since  the cessation of operation Cast Lead in 2009, both Israel and Gaza-based militants have upheld an unspoken status quo. In this new reality, sporadic rocket fire into the area surrounding the Gaza Strip was largely tolerated, with each such incident met with a limited IDF response. Every violation of this status quo has led to a temporary and localized escalation. These exchanges usually included bouts of more intensive rocket fire into Israel’s southern cities, answered with more costly targeted attacks by the Israeli Air Force against more sensitive targets in the Gaza strip.  Read more »

By Max Security’s Travel Security Department 

While the situation in Cairo isn’t as bad as the media makes it out to be, the reality has changed drastically since Mubarak’s ousting. 

Cairo's Khan Al Khalili Market. Touristed areas like these have become havens for illegal peddling given an increasingly limited police presence.

In the past weeks, media coverage on Egypt has focused on the plight of a select group of protesters who took to the streets of Downtown Cairo to combat teargas-firing government troops with rocks and Molotov cocktails. Tahrir Square, Mohammed Mahmoud Street, and the rest of central Cairo were made to seem as if the entire city had been engulfed in a battle royal of tear gas and black smoke. While even the average Cairene will tell you not to go near Downtown, the rest of the city remains largely unaffected by ongoing political unrest, with locals making every effort to return the capital to a sense of normality. While the effects of political turmoil may have been hyped, Cairo has become especially hazardous in recent months, and there are a number of dangers that still pose a risk to the unsuspecting visitor. 

Depending on your luck, traveling to Cairo can be a roller coaster ride right from the get-go. Cairo’s international airport itself has been the scene of various scuffles relating to just about every contentious topic in the Egyptian discourse. Labor related sit-ins, fighting between supporters and opponents of the Syrian regime, and frustration over the general disorder and overcrowding at the arrivals hall have commonly resulted with the intervention of baton-wielding military police.  Read more »

By Jay R. and Gabi A.

Continued violations of the recently signed GCC power transfer agreement indicate that Yemen may be entering into a new status quo of instability.                          

In January of this year, Yemen’s citizenry amassed in the streets initially demanding reform and change in areas of unemployment and corruption, but then shifted their cries to the ouster of their president, Ali Abdullah Saleh. On January 27, approximately 16,000 demonstrators gathered in the capital, Sana’a, which was followed by a subsequent assembly of more than 20,000 people just one week later. But it was not until the “Friday of No Return” that the government claimed the first three lives of the revolution on March 11 setting off a wave of unrest that would escalate to opposition armed resistance in the form of an alliance between tribal chief Sheikh Sadiq al-Ahmar and General Ali Mohsen al Ahmar of the First Armored Brigade; no relation.

Activists stage demonstrations in Sana'a against immunity for President Saleh. (Xinhua)

Some argue that the hostilities which erupted between Saleh loyalists and opposition tribesmen and defectors reached the level of civil war. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) peace initiative was originally expected to quel this unrest, has appeared to  have ultimately failed to do just that in the immediate term. As part of the aforementioned initiative, Yemen’s President Saleh received immunity against prosecution for his perceived crimes against the protest opposition movement. Such a concession has enraged the people, who continue their movement to express their disapproval.  As such, thousands of Yemenis continued to march in the cities of Sanaa and Taiz.
Read more »

By Dan R.

While its people face incredible hardship under a corrupt regime, Algeria’s bloody recent history remains in fresh in the minds of anyone seeking to rise up. 

While much of North Africa has been swept by  political or social changes, Algeria’s political system has remained virtually untouched, with its short-lived and decentralized protest movement failing to resonate with the population until now. Several factors have attributed to this relative calm.

Algerian leader Abdelaziz Bouteflika. (Echourouk)

Like many North African countries, Algeria was a French colony, however unlike many countries, Algeria fought for its independence in a bloody war that lasted 8 years. In part, the Algerian nationality was built and forged during this conflict. This level of nationalism rarely exists in the Arab world; it can be seen in Algeria and periodically in Egypt, as it is in direct contradiction to conservative Islamic beliefs. 

In the late 80′s the Front de Libération Nationale (FLN) socialist faction was dominated the Algerian political system. Starting from 1987, the FLN’s influence began to wane as the economy, based on the production of crude oil and natural gas, collapsed due to a sharp decrease prices. In 1989 the FLN announced the formation of a new constitution which denounced socialism, promised freedom of speech and other personal freedoms. Read more »

By Daniel N.

Regardless of who was responsible, the recent suicide attacks bolster the position of the Assad Dictatorship.

Since the uprising began in March 2011, President Bashar Al Assad has attempted to brand the Syrian opposition as “terrorists” in order to justify his brutal crackdown. The carnage and mass casualties of Friday’s twin suicide bombing attacks may have done just that, throwing the spotlight on the possibility of extremist infiltration into the Syrian opposition. 

Mourners attend a funeral for those killed in Friday's bombings. (SANA)

Friday’s carnage unfolded when at least two explosive-laden vehicles were detonated near security facilities in the heart of the capital. Plumes of smoke could be seen from throughout the capital, while gunfire reportedly rang out amidst the bedlam that followed. Indeed, the perpetrators had managed to smash the relative calm enjoyed by citizens of the Syrian capital, fomenting the kind of chaos more commonly seen in Kabul or Baghdad. Immediately after the explosions, the state media rushed to attribute to the attacks to Al Qaeda-affiliated jihadists, pointing to a recent report that operatives had penetrated its territory through Lebanon.  Read more »

By Max Security’s Intelligence Department 

Upcoming naval exercises are the Islamic Republic’s language of choice for highlighting the detrimental impact of a Western military strike on the global economy.

The Strait of Hormuz. (Google Earth)

Iranian officials announced that their armed forces will commence a 10-day naval exercise on December 24, stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden. The announcement comes after several US defense officials issued strong warnings against the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions, while Saudi Arabia announced its intentions to form a unified foreign policy for Gulf Cooperation States. In addition, Israel has announced increased military cooperation on a number of fronts, including renewed cooperation with the Turkish air force, and large scale anti-missile drills with United States scheduled for the Spring of 2012. 

The upcoming maneuvers are meant as a message against the West and its regional allies, who in recent days have increased their rhetoric against the Islamic Republic. Naval exercises, missile drills, and land maneuvers are common forms of response after opponents make provocative statements. Read more »